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Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited's (HKG:1833) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 83% Above Its Share Price
Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited's (HKG:1833) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 83% Above Its Share Price
Does the August share price for Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (HKG:1833) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Ping An Healthcare and Technology
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | -CN¥706.0m | -CN¥590.3m | CN¥335.0m | CN¥778.0m | CN¥1.18b | CN¥1.61b | CN¥2.04b | CN¥2.42b | CN¥2.75b | CN¥3.02b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 51.76% | Est @ 36.7% | Est @ 26.15% | Est @ 18.77% | Est @ 13.61% | Est @ 9.99% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% | -CN¥661 | -CN¥518 | CN¥276 | CN¥600 | CN¥853 | CN¥1.1k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.6k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.0b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.6%) = CN¥59b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥59b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CN¥31b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥38b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$21.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:1833 Discounted Cash Flow August 26th 2022Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ping An Healthcare and Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.049. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Ping An Healthcare and Technology, we've put together three additional factors you should assess:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Ping An Healthcare and Technology we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does 1833's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
平安好医生股份有限公司(HKG:1833)8月份的股价是否反映了它的真实价值?今天,我们将通过预测股票未来的现金流,然后将其贴现到今天的价值来估计股票的内在价值。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。它真的没有那么多东西,尽管它可能看起来相当复杂。
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
看看我们对平安好医生的最新分析
一步一步地计算
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | -CN人民币7.06亿元 | -CN元5.903亿元 | CN元3.35亿元 | CN人民币7.780亿元 | CN元11.8亿元 | CN人民币16.1亿元 | CN元20.4亿元 | 净额24.2亿元 | CN人民币27.5亿元 | CN元30.2B元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师X5 | 分析师x4 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x2 | Est@51.76% | Est@36.7% | Est@26.15% | Est@18.77% | Est@13.61% | Est@9.99% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@6.7% | -CN元661元 | -CN元518元 | CN元276元 | CN元600元 | CN元853元 | CN元1.1K | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.6K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币75亿元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我们以6.7%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.0B×(1+1.6%)?(6.7%-1.6%)=CN元59B
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元59B?(1+6.7%)10=CN元310亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为38亿加元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前21.5港元的股价相比,该公司的估值似乎被相当低,较目前的股价有45%的折扣。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
联交所:1833贴现现金流2022年8月26日重要假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将平安好医生视为潜在股东,我们使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了6.7%,这是基于杠杆率为1.049的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要对一家公司进行评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于平安好医生,我们列出了另外三个你应该评估的因素:
- 风险:我们认为您应该评估平安好医生的1个警示标志在投资这家公司之前,我们已经做了标记。
- 未来收益:1833的增长率与其同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对联交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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