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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GD Power Development Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600795)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GD Power Development Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600795)
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of GD Power Development Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600795) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for GD Power DevelopmentLtd
Is GD Power DevelopmentLtd Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥4.59b | CN¥4.87b | CN¥5.13b | CN¥5.37b | CN¥5.59b | CN¥5.81b | CN¥6.03b | CN¥6.24b | CN¥6.46b | CN¥6.68b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 7.3% | Est @ 6.08% | Est @ 5.23% | Est @ 4.63% | Est @ 4.22% | Est @ 3.92% | Est @ 3.72% | Est @ 3.57% | Est @ 3.47% | Est @ 3.4% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% | CN¥4.2k | CN¥4.1k | CN¥3.9k | CN¥3.7k | CN¥3.5k | CN¥3.4k | CN¥3.2k | CN¥3.0k | CN¥2.8k | CN¥2.7k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥34b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥6.7b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (9.6%– 3.2%) = CN¥109b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥109b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= CN¥44b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥78b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥4.3, the company appears about fair value at a 1.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SHSE:600795 Discounted Cash Flow August 24th 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at GD Power DevelopmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.284. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For GD Power DevelopmentLtd, we've put together three further factors you should explore:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for GD Power DevelopmentLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 600795's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种评估广东电力发展有限公司(上交所:600795)内在价值的方法,即将预期的未来现金流折现为今天的价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对广东电力发展有限公司的最新分析
广东电力发展有限公司的价值公平吗?
我们将使用两阶段贴现现金流模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个较高的成长期,接近终值,在第二个“稳定增长”阶段捕捉到。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元45.9亿元 | CN元48.7亿元 | CN元51.3亿元 | CN元53.7亿元 | CN元55.9亿元 | CN元58.1亿元 | CN元60.3亿元 | CN元62.4亿元 | CN元64.6亿元 | CN元66.8亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@7.3% | Est@6.08% | Est@5.23% | Est@4.63% | Est@4.22% | Est@3.92% | Est@3.72% | Est@3.57% | Est@3.47% | EST@3.4% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@9.6% | CN元4.2K | CN元4.1K | CN元3.9万元 | CN元3.7K | CN元3.5K | CN元3.4K元 | CN元3.2K | CN元3.0K | CN元2.8K | CN元2.7K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=340亿元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以9.6%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元6.7b×(1+3.2%)?(9.6%-3.2%)=CN元109B
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元109B?(1+9.6%)10=CN元440亿元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,未来现金流的现值为78b元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前4.3元的股价,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价有1.9%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
上海证交所:600795贴现现金流2022年8月24日假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将广东电力发展有限公司视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了9.6%,这是基于杠杆率为1.284的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
虽然重要的是,在研究一家公司时,DCF计算不应该是唯一的衡量标准。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于广东电力发展有限公司,我们总结了三个你应该探索的因素:
- 风险例如,我们发现广东电力发展有限公司1个警示标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 未来收益:600795的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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