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Hysan Development (HKG:14) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Hysan Development (HKG:14) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Hysan Development Company Limited (HKG:14) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Hysan Development
What Is Hysan Development's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Hysan Development had HK$32.2b of debt, an increase on HK$26.6b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of HK$663.0m, its net debt is less, at about HK$31.6b.
SEHK:14 Debt to Equity History August 24th 2022A Look At Hysan Development's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hysan Development had liabilities of HK$4.10b due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$31.1b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$663.0m as well as receivables valued at HK$533.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$34.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of HK$23.5b, we think shareholders really should watch Hysan Development's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
As it happens Hysan Development has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.4 but very strong interest coverage of 17.7. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Sadly, Hysan Development's EBIT actually dropped 2.1% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hysan Development's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Hysan Development recorded free cash flow worth 79% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Hysan Development's difficulty net debt to EBITDA, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Hysan Development's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Hysan Development has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。与许多其他公司一样希慎发展有限公司(HKG:14)利用债务。但这笔债务对股东来说是一个担忧吗?
为什么债务会带来风险?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。资本主义的一部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,破产的企业被银行家无情地清算。尽管这并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司永久性地稀释股东的权益,因为贷款人迫使他们以令人沮丧的价格筹集资金。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司对债务管理得相当好--并对自己有利。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对希慎发展的最新分析
希慎发展的债务是什么?
你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2022年6月,希慎发展的债务为322亿港元,比一年前增加了266亿港元。然而,由于该公司拥有6.63亿港元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为316亿港元。
联交所:14债转股历史2022年8月24日希慎发展的负债问题
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到希慎发展有41亿港元的负债在12个月内到期,还有311亿港元的负债在12个月内到期。与这些债务相抵销的是,该公司有6.63亿港元的现金以及价值5.33亿港元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,该公司的负债总额比现金和近期应收账款的总和高出340亿港元。
鉴于这一赤字实际上高于公司235亿港元的市值,我们认为股东真的应该关注希慎发展的债务水平,就像父母第一次看孩子骑车一样。在该公司不得不迅速清理其资产负债表的情况下,股东似乎可能会遭受广泛的稀释。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
碰巧的是,希慎发展的净债务与EBITDA之比相当令人担忧,为10.4,但利息覆盖率非常高,为17.7。这意味着,除非该公司能够获得非常廉价的债务,否则未来的利息支出可能会增加。遗憾的是,希慎发展去年的息税前利润实际上下降了2.1%。如果盈利趋势继续下去,那么它的债务负担将变得沉重,就像北极熊看着自己唯一的幼崽的心脏一样。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定希慎发展未来保持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在最近三年中,希慎发展录得的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的79%,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这一数字接近正常水平。这种自由现金流使公司在适当的时候处于偿还债务的有利地位。
我们的观点
我们对希慎发展的困难净债务与EBITDA之比感到一些不安,但我们也有积极的方面需要关注。换句话说,它的利息覆盖和息税前利润转换为自由现金流都是令人鼓舞的迹象。综合上述因素,我们确实认为希慎发展的债务对业务构成一些风险。虽然这笔债务可以提高回报,但我们认为该公司现在有足够的杠杆。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。例如-希慎发展有限公司2个警告标志我们认为你应该意识到。
如果你对一家增长迅速、资产负债表坚如磐石的公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金成长型股票清单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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