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Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) Stock Performs Better Than Its Underlying Earnings Growth Over Last Five Years
Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) Stock Performs Better Than Its Underlying Earnings Growth Over Last Five Years
The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE:TNL) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 51% over a half decade. In contrast, the stock price has popped 8.6% in the last thirty days. However, this may be a matter of broader market optimism, since stocks are up 8.9% in the same time.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$149m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
View our latest analysis for Travel + Leisure
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Travel + Leisure actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.1% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
It could be that the revenue decline of 7.5% per year is viewed as evidence that Travel + Leisure is shrinking. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
NYSE:TNL Earnings and Revenue Growth August 19th 2022We know that Travel + Leisure has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Travel + Leisure will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Travel + Leisure's TSR for the last 5 years was 29%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Travel + Leisure shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 0.3% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 7.1%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Travel + Leisure better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Travel + Leisure (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .
We will like Travel + Leisure better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
选股的主要目的是寻找跑赢大盘的股票。但在任何投资组合中,个股之间的结果都会喜忧参半。所以我们不会责怪长期旅游+休闲公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:TNL)股东对他们持有股票的决定表示怀疑,该股在过去五年中下跌了51%。相比之下,该公司股价在过去30天里上涨了8.6%。然而,这可能是一个更广泛的市场乐观情绪问题,因为同期股市上涨了8.9%。
更令人鼓舞的是,仅在过去的7天里,该公司的市值就增加了1.49亿美元,所以让我们看看我们是否能确定是什么导致了股东五年的亏损。
查看我们对旅行+休闲的最新分析
虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映的是投资者情绪,而不仅仅是潜在的企业表现。评估围绕一家公司的情绪变化的一个有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
不幸的是,在股价下滑的五年里,旅游休闲的每股收益(EPS)实际上以每年3.1%的速度增长。考虑到股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑,每股收益不是这段时间内业务表现的良好指南(可能是因为一次性的亏损或收益)。也有可能,此前市场非常乐观,因此尽管每股收益有所改善,但该股仍令人失望。
通过浏览这些数字,我们可以假设,五年前,市场曾预期会有更高的增长。看看其他指标可能更好地解释了股价的变化。
每年7.5%的收入下降可能被视为旅游+休闲正在收缩的证据。这可能鼓励了一些股东抛售该股。
您可以在下图中看到收益和收入随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切的值)。
纽约证券交易所:TNL收益和收入增长2022年8月19日我们知道,旅游+休闲最近提高了底线,但未来会是什么样子呢?因此,看看分析师认为旅游+休闲未来的收入(免费利润预测)是很有意义的。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。恰好,旅游+休闲最近5年的TSR为29%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但旅游+休闲公司的股东们可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月的0.3%的亏损并没有市场亏损7.1%左右那么糟糕。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得5%的收益。可能该业务只是面临一些短期问题,但股东应密切关注基本面。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的。但要更好地理解旅游+休闲,我们还需要考虑许多其他因素。为此,您应该了解3个警示标志我们已经发现了旅游+休闲(包括1个不容忽视的)。
如果我们看到一些大的内部购买,我们会更喜欢旅游+休闲。在我们等待的时候,看看这个免费最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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