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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2128)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2128)
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2128) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for China Lesso Group Holdings
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.40b | CN¥2.24b | CN¥2.22b | CN¥2.22b | CN¥2.23b | CN¥2.25b | CN¥2.27b | CN¥2.29b | CN¥2.32b | CN¥2.35b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -0.74% | Est @ -0.05% | Est @ 0.43% | Est @ 0.76% | Est @ 1% | Est @ 1.16% | Est @ 1.28% | Est @ 1.36% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.2k | CN¥1.1k | CN¥1.0k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥14b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.4b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (8.8%– 1.6%) = CN¥33b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥33b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥14b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥28b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$9.4, the company appears about fair value at a 9.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:2128 Discounted Cash Flow August 16th 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Lesso Group Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.470. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For China Lesso Group Holdings, we've compiled three additional elements you should look at:
- Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for China Lesso Group Holdings you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does 2128's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于预测中国联塑集团控股有限公司(HKG: 2128)的未来现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值,从而估算其作为投资机会的吸引力。为此,我们将利用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型。尽管它可能看起来很复杂,但实际上并没有那么多。
但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。
查看我们对中国联塑集团控股的最新分析
计算数字
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值折现为以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | cn¥1.40b | cn¥2.24b | cn¥2.22b | cn¥2.22b | cn¥2.23b | cn¥2.25b | cn¥2.27b | cn¥2.29b | cn¥2.32b | cn¥2.35b |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x1 | 分析师 x1 | Est @ -0.74% | Est @ -0.05% | Est @ 0.43% | Est @ 0.76% | 东部时间 @ 1% | Est @ 1.16% | Est @ 1.28% | Est @ 1.36% |
现值(人民币,百万元)折现 @ 8.8% | cn¥1.3k | cn¥1.9k | cn¥1.7k | cn¥1.6k | cn¥1.5k | cn¥1.4k | cn¥1.3k | cn¥1.2k | cn¥1.1k | cn¥1.0k |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = cn¥14b
在计算了最初10年期内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终端价值,该值考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均值。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为8.8%。
终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ≥ (r — g) = cn¥2.4b× (1 + 1.6%) √ (8.8% — 1.6%) = cn¥33b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= cn¥33b≥ (1 + 8.8%)10= cn¥14b
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流的现值之和,在本例中为28b人民币。为了获得每股内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票的总数。与目前9.4港元的股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了9.6%。但请记住,这只是近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样,垃圾进,垃圾出。
SEHK: 2128 贴现现金流 2022 年 8 月 16 日假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果您不同意这些结果,可以自己进行计算,然后尝试假设。DCF也没有考虑行业可能的周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将China Lesso Group Holdings视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是计算债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了8.8%,这是基于1.470的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比的波动率的指标。我们的beta值取自全球同类公司的行业平均beta值,施加的上限在0.8到2.0之间,这对于稳定的业务来说是一个合理的区间。
展望未来:
虽然很重要,但理想情况下,差价合约的计算并不是你为公司仔细研究的唯一分析。差价合约模型不是投资估值的万能工具。最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于中国联索集团控股公司,我们汇编了另外三个你应该注意的内容:
- 风险: 举个例子,我们发现了 中国联塑集团控股的三个警告标志 你应该知道。
- 未来收益: 与同行和整个市场相比,2128的增长率如何?通过查看我们的免费分析师增长预期图表,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务: 低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过往表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们的互动式具有坚实商业基础的股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只香港股票的差价合约计算方法,因此,如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在这里搜索即可。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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