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Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced About Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Earnings Despite 29% Price Jump
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced About Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Earnings Despite 29% Price Jump
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking further back, the 17% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 16x, you may still consider Alcoa as an attractive investment with its 9.9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Alcoa has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Check out our latest analysis for Alcoa
NYSE:AA Price Based on Past Earnings August 14th 2022 If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Alcoa.What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Alcoa's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 125% gain to the company's bottom line. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the ten analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 9.7% per annum, which is not materially different.
With this information, we find it odd that Alcoa is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Alcoa's P/E close to the market median. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Alcoa currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.
Having said that, be aware Alcoa is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is significant.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Alcoa, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
美国铝业公司$美国铝业公司(AA.US)$(NYSE:AA)的股东无疑很高兴看到股价在上个月反弹了29%,尽管它仍在努力弥补最近的损失。再往前看,过去12个月17%的涨幅并不算太糟糕,尽管过去30天的涨势很强劲。
尽管股价强劲反弹,但鉴于美国近一半公司的市盈率(或市盈率)超过16倍,你可能仍然会认为美国铝业的市盈率为9.9倍,是一项有吸引力的投资。尽管如此,我们还需要更深入地挖掘,以确定市盈率下降是否有合理的基础。
由于美国铝业最近的盈利增长好于大多数其他公司,它的表现相对较好。许多人可能预计强劲的盈利表现将大幅下滑,这抑制了市盈率。如果你喜欢这家公司,你可能会希望情况并非如此,这样你就可以在不受青睐的时候买入一些股票。
查看我们对美国铝业的最新分析
纽约证券交易所:AA基于过去收益的价格2022年8月14日如果您想了解分析师对未来的预测,您应该查看我们的免费关于美国铝业的报道。
增长指标告诉我们关于低市盈率的哪些信息?
只有当美国铝业的增长落后于市场时,你才会真正放心地看到美国铝业的市盈率如此之低。
回顾过去一年,该公司的利润实现了125%的不同寻常的增长。不过,该公司的长期表现没有那么强劲,三年每股收益增长总体上相对不存在。因此,股东们可能不会对不稳定的中期增长率过于满意。
展望未来,追踪该公司的十位分析师的预测显示,未来三年,该公司的收益将以每年11%的速度增长。与此同时,市场的其他部分预计将以每年9.7%的速度增长,这与实际情况没有什么不同。
有了这些信息,我们发现美国铝业的市盈率低于市场,这很奇怪。这可能是因为大多数投资者不相信该公司能够实现未来的增长预期。
关键的外卖
最近的股价飙升不足以将美国铝业的市盈率提高到接近市场中值的水平。仅仅用市盈率来决定你是否应该出售你的股票是不明智的,但它可以成为公司未来前景的实用指南。
我们已经确定,美国铝业目前的市盈率低于预期,因为它的预期增长与大盘一致。可能存在一些未被察觉的盈利威胁,阻碍了市盈率与预期的匹配。一些人似乎确实预计收益不稳定,因为这些条件通常应该会为股价提供更多支撑。
话虽如此,但请注意美国铝业正显示两个警告信号在我们的投资分析中,其中1个是重要的。
如果这些风险让你重新考虑你对美国铝业的看法,探索我们的高质量股票互动列表,以了解还有什么。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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