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Northern Oil and Gas' (NYSE:NOG) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear
Northern Oil and Gas' (NYSE:NOG) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear
Despite posting strong earnings, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) stock didn't move much over the last week. We looked deeper into the numbers and found that shareholders might be concerned with some underlying weaknesses.
See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas
NYSE:NOG Earnings and Revenue History August 11th 2022A Closer Look At Northern Oil and Gas' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to June 2022, Northern Oil and Gas recorded an accrual ratio of 0.55. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$327m despite its profit of US$193.6m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$71k a year ago though, so Northern Oil and Gas has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings. One positive for Northern Oil and Gas shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Northern Oil and Gas issued 19% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Northern Oil and Gas' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
How Is Dilution Impacting Northern Oil and Gas' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
We don't have any data on the company's profits from three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.
In the long term, if Northern Oil and Gas' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
Our Take On Northern Oil and Gas' Profit Performance
As it turns out, Northern Oil and Gas couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that shareholders own less of the company than the did before (unless they bought more shares). Considering all this we'd argue Northern Oil and Gas' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 5 warning signs for Northern Oil and Gas (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
尽管公布了强劲的收益,北方石油天然气公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:NOG)的股票在过去一周没有太大变动。我们更深入地研究了这些数字,发现股东可能担心一些潜在的弱点。
查看我们对北方石油天然气公司的最新分析
纽约证券交易所:NOG收益和收入历史2022年8月11日仔细看看北方石油天然气公司的收益
许多投资者都没有听说过现金流应计比率但它实际上是衡量一家公司在给定时期内自由现金流(FCF)支持公司利润的程度的有用指标。应计制比率从给定期间的利润中减去FCF,然后将结果除以该时间段内公司的平均运营资产。你可以把来自现金流的应计比率看作是‘非FCF利润率’。
因此,当一家公司的应计比率为负时,它实际上被认为是一件好事,但如果它的应计比率为正,那就是一件坏事。虽然应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们确实认为,当一家公司的应计比率相对较高时,这一点值得注意。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高应计制比率往往会导致较低的利润或较低的利润增长。
在截至2022年6月的12个月中,北方石油天然气公司的应计比率为0.55。一般来说,这对未来的盈利能力来说是个不好的预兆。换句话说,该公司在那段时间没有产生一分钱的自由现金流。在过去的12个月里,它实际上有负面自由现金流,尽管如上所述利润为1.936亿美元,但仍有3.27亿美元的流出。我们看到一年前的FCF是71K美元,所以北方石油天然气公司至少在过去能够产生正的FCF。值得注意的是,该公司发行了新股,从而稀释了现有股东的股份,并减少了他们在未来收益中的份额。对北方石油天然气公司的股东来说,一个积极的因素是,该公司去年的应计比率明显好于去年,这让人们有理由相信,该公司未来可能会恢复更强劲的现金转换。如果情况确实如此,股东应该期待本年度相对于利润的现金流有所改善。
这可能会让你想知道,分析师对未来盈利能力的预测是什么。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于他们估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
评估收益质量的一个重要方面是看一家公司在多大程度上稀释了股东的权益。碰巧的是,北方石油天然气公司去年增发了19%的新股。这意味着它的收益被分配到更多的股票中。每股收益等指标帮助我们了解实际股东从公司利润中受益的程度,而净收益水平则让我们更好地了解公司的绝对规模。点击此链接,查看北方石油天然气公司历史上的每股收益增长。
稀释对北方石油天然气公司的每股收益(EPS)有何影响?
我们没有关于该公司三年前利润的任何数据。即使只关注过去12个月,我们也没有有意义的增长率,因为一年前它也出现了亏损。但抛开算术不谈,看到一项以前不盈利的业务何时好转总是一件好事(尽管我们承认,如果不要求摊薄,利润会更高)。因此,你可以看到,股权稀释对股东产生了一些影响。
从长远来看,如果北方石油天然气公司的收益每股可以增加,那么股价也应该是。然而,如果其利润增加,而每股收益持平(甚至下降),那么股东可能看不到太多好处。出于这个原因,你可以说,从长远来看,每股收益比净利润更重要,假设目标是评估一家公司的股价是否可能增长。
我们对北方石油天然气公司利润表现的看法
事实证明,北方石油天然气公司的利润无法与现金流相匹配,其稀释意味着股东持有的公司股份比以前少(除非他们购买了更多的股票)。考虑到这一切,我们认为北方石油天然气公司的利润可能给人一种过于慷慨的印象,表明其可持续的盈利水平。考虑到这一点,除非我们对风险有透彻的了解,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。我们的分析显示北方石油天然气的5个警示标志(1让我们有点不舒服!)我们强烈建议你在投资之前先看看这些。
在这篇文章中,我们研究了一些可能削弱利润数字效用的因素,我们对此持谨慎态度。但如果你有能力将注意力集中在细枝末节上,总会有更多的东西需要发现。一些人认为,高股本回报率是高质量企业的良好标志。所以你可能想看看这个免费拥有高股本回报率的公司的集合,或内部人士正在购买的这份股票清单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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