It is doubtless a positive to see that the TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) share price has gained some 34% in the last three months. But that is meagre solace in the face of the shocking decline over three years. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 86% in that time. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for TAL Education Group

Because TAL Education Group made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last three years, TAL Education Group saw its revenue grow by 16% per year, compound. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. So it's hard to believe the share price decline of 23% per year is due to the revenue. It could be that the losses were much larger than expected. If you buy into companies that lose money then you always risk losing money yourself. Just don't lose the lesson.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

TAL Education Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for TAL Education Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 12% in the twelve months, TAL Education Group shareholders did even worse, losing 28%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 13% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for TAL Education Group that you should be aware of.

But note: TAL Education Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.