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Is Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) Trading At A 35% Discount?
Is Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) Trading At A 35% Discount?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Company Limited (SHSE:601717) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥2.21b | CN¥2.33b | CN¥2.44b | CN¥2.55b | CN¥2.65b | CN¥2.75b | CN¥2.85b | CN¥2.95b | CN¥3.05b | CN¥3.16b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 6.53% | Est @ 5.54% | Est @ 4.85% | Est @ 4.37% | Est @ 4.03% | Est @ 3.79% | Est @ 3.63% | Est @ 3.51% | Est @ 3.43% | Est @ 3.37% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% | CN¥2.0k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.7k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥17b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.2b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.8%– 3.2%) = CN¥59b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥59b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥25b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥42b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥15.5, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SHSE:601717 Discounted Cash Flow August 10th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.125. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should look at:
- Risks: Be aware that Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for 601717's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种估算郑州煤矿机械集团有限公司(上交所:601717)内在价值的方法,即预测其未来现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对郑州煤机集团的最新分析
估计的估价是多少?
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN人民币22.1亿元 | CN元23.3亿元 | 净额24.4亿元 | CN元25.5亿元 | CN元26.5亿元 | CN人民币27.5亿元 | CN元28.5亿元 | CN元29.5亿元 | CN元30.5亿元 | CN元31.6亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@6.53% | Est@5.54% | Est@4.85% | Est@4.37% | Est@4.03% | Est@3.79% | Est@3.63% | Est@3.51% | Est@3.43% | Est@3.37% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@8.8% | CN元2.0K | CN元2.0K | CN元1.9万元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.7K | CN元1.7K | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元170亿元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用8.8%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.2b×(1+3.2%)?(8.8%-3.2%)=CN元59B
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元59B?(1+8.8%)10=250亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总权益价值,在本例中为420亿元人民币。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。相对于目前15.5元的股价,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,较目前的股价有35%的折让。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
上海证交所:601717贴现现金流2022年8月10日重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将郑州煤机集团视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.8%,这是基于杠杆率为1.125的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
虽然贴现现金流的计算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要评估的众多因素之一。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。我们能弄清楚为什么该公司的股价低于内在价值吗?对于郑州煤机集团,我们整理了三个基本方面,你应该看看:
- 风险:要知道,郑州煤机集团正在展示我们的投资分析中的2个警告信号,你应该知道关于……
- 管理问:内部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市场对601717未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解对CEO薪酬和治理因素的见解。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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