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Does Poly Developments and Holdings Group (SHSE:600048) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Poly Developments and Holdings Group (SHSE:600048) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600048) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Poly Developments and Holdings Group
What Is Poly Developments and Holdings Group's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2022, Poly Developments and Holdings Group had CN¥366.3b of debt, up from CN¥333.7b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥137.6b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥228.7b.
SHSE:600048 Debt to Equity History August 7th 2022A Look At Poly Developments and Holdings Group's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Poly Developments and Holdings Group had liabilities of CN¥820.4b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥297.5b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥137.6b in cash and CN¥159.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥820.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥183.9b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Poly Developments and Holdings Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Poly Developments and Holdings Group's net debt is 4.7 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Sadly, Poly Developments and Holdings Group's EBIT actually dropped 6.9% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Poly Developments and Holdings Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Poly Developments and Holdings Group reported free cash flow worth 9.0% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
Mulling over Poly Developments and Holdings Group's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Poly Developments and Holdings Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Poly Developments and Holdings Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希尔哈撒韦的外部基金经理理想汽车·卢直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你考虑到任何一只股票的风险有多大时,你需要考虑债务可能是显而易见的,因为太多的债务可能会让一家公司倒闭。重要的是保利发展控股集团有限公司。(上海证券交易所:600048)确实背负着债务。但这笔债务对股东来说是一个担忧吗?
债务在什么时候是危险的?
债务帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是用新资本还是用自由现金流。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,特别是当它用能够以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对保利发展和控股集团的最新分析
保利发展控股集团的净债务是多少?
如下所示,截至2022年3月底,保利发展控股集团的债务为3663亿加元,高于一年前的3337亿加元。单击图像了解更多详细信息。然而,它也有1376亿元现金,因此其净债务为2287亿元。
上证综指:600048债转股历史2022年8月7日看保利发展和控股集团的负债
最新的资产负债表数据显示,保利发展控股集团有8204亿元的负债在一年内到期,2975亿元的负债在一年内到期。作为抵消,它有1376亿加元的现金和1596亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额为人民币8207亿元,比现金和近期应收账款加起来还要多。
这一不足给这家1839亿元的CN公司本身带来了沉重的负担,就像一个孩子在一个装满书籍、运动装备和小号的巨大背包的重压下挣扎一样。因此,毫无疑问,我们会密切关注它的资产负债表。归根结底,如果债权人要求偿还债务,保利发展和控股集团可能需要进行大规模的资本重组。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
保利发展控股集团的净债务是其EBITDA的4.7倍,这是一个可观但仍合理的杠杆率。但它的息税前利润大约是利息支出的1K倍,这意味着该公司并没有真的付出高昂的成本来维持这样的债务水平。即使低成本被证明是不可持续的,这也是一个好迹象。遗憾的是,保利发展控股集团去年的息税前利润实际上下降了6.9%。如果盈利趋势继续下去,那么它的债务负担将变得沉重,就像北极熊看着自己唯一的幼崽的心脏一样。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但决定保利发展和控股集团未来保持健康资产负债表能力的是未来的收益,而不是任何东西。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的三年里,保利发展和控股集团报告的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的9.0%,这确实是相当低的。这种疲软的现金转换水平削弱了它管理和偿还债务的能力。
我们的观点
考虑到保利发展和控股集团试图保持对其总负债的控制,我们肯定不是很热情。但从好的方面来看,它的利息覆盖是一个好兆头,让我们更加乐观。我们非常清楚,由于保利发展和控股集团的资产负债表状况良好,我们认为该集团的风险确实相当高。因此,我们对这种动物的警惕几乎就像饥饿的小猫害怕掉进主人的鱼塘一样:正如他们所说的那样,一次被咬,加倍害羞。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。例如,保利发展和控股集团拥有2个警告标志(这让我们有点不舒服)我们认为你应该知道这一点。
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来看看我们的净现金成长型股票独家名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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