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Newsflash: Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (HKG:1788) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts
Newsflash: Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (HKG:1788) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts
Today is shaping up negative for Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (HKG:1788) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Guotai Junan International Holdings' three analysts is for revenues of HK$3.9b in 2022 which - if met - would reflect a substantial 20% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of HK$4.3b in 2022. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Guotai Junan International Holdings, given the substantial drop in revenue estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Guotai Junan International Holdings
SEHK:1788 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 29th 2022We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of HK$1.38, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Guotai Junan International Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$1.66 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$0.90. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Guotai Junan International Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Guotai Junan International Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. The analysts also expect revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Guotai Junan International Holdings after today.
Still got questions? We have estimates for Guotai Junan International Holdings from its three analysts out until 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天对我们来说是负面的国泰君安国际控股有限公司(HKG:1788)股东,分析师对今年的预测作出大幅负面修订。营收预期大幅下调,因为分析师发出前景较弱的信号--或许这是一个迹象,表明投资者也应该降低预期。
评级下调后,国泰君安国际控股的三位分析师目前的共识是,2022年的营收将达到39亿港元--如果实现这一目标,将比过去12个月的销售额大幅增长20%。在最新估计之前,分析师预测2022年营收为43亿港元。鉴于营收预期大幅下降,对国泰君安国际控股的预期似乎变得不那么乐观了。
查看我们对国泰君安国际控股公司的最新分析
联交所:1788盈利及收入增长2022年7月29日我们会指出,他们1.38港元的目标价没有重大变化,这表明最新的估计不足以改变他们对业务价值的看法。然而,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时,也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。最乐观的国泰君安国际控股分析师给出的目标价为每股1.6港元,最悲观的则认为是0.9港元。这些目标价表明,分析师对该业务确实有一些不同的看法,但估计的差异还不足以向我们表明,一些人押注于大获全胜或彻底失败。
我们看待这些估计的另一种方式是放在更大的背景下,比如预测与过去的表现如何比较,以及预测相对于行业内的其他公司是更乐观还是更乐观。从最新的估计中可以清楚地看出,国泰君安国际控股的增长率预计将大幅加快,预计到2022年底的年化收入增长率为20%,明显快于其历史上每年10%的增长率。在过去的五年里。相比之下,同行业的其他公司预计每年收入增长14%。考虑到收入的预期加速增长,很明显,国泰君安国际控股公司的增长速度预计将远远快于其行业。
底线
最重要的是,分析师下调了今年的营收预期。分析师们还预计,该公司营收增速将快于整体市场。通常情况下,一次评级下调就会引发一连串的削减,特别是在一个行业正在衰落的情况下。因此,如果市场在今天之后对国泰君安国际控股变得更加谨慎,我们也不会感到惊讶。
还有问题吗?我们有国泰君安国际控股公司的三位分析师对2024年之前的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
搜索有趣的公司的另一种方式可能是到达拐点是跟踪管理层是在买入还是在卖出,我们的免费内部人士正在收购的成长型公司名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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