In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:001965) shareholders, since the share price is down 13% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 37%.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.0% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

We're actually a quite surprised to see the share price down while EPS have grown strongly. So we'll have to take a look at other metrics to try to understand the price action.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. It's good to see that China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd has increased its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd, it has a TSR of -2.9% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 8.4% over the last year. That includes the value of the dividend. What is absolutely clear is that is far preferable to the dismal 1.0% average annual loss suffered over the last three years. The optimist would say this is evidence that the stock has bottomed, and better days lie ahead. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd you should know about.

We will like China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.