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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited (SZSE:300083)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited (SZSE:300083)
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited (SZSE:300083) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group
The model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.40b | CN¥1.16b | CN¥1.04b | CN¥968.0m | CN¥932.3m | CN¥917.3m | CN¥915.8m | CN¥923.7m | CN¥938.3m | CN¥957.8m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -10.9% | Est @ -6.66% | Est @ -3.69% | Est @ -1.61% | Est @ -0.16% | Est @ 0.86% | Est @ 1.58% | Est @ 2.08% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | CN¥1.3k | CN¥995 | CN¥819 | CN¥707 | CN¥629 | CN¥573 | CN¥528 | CN¥493 | CN¥463 | CN¥437 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.9b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥958m× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.2%– 3.2%) = CN¥20b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥20b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥9.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥16b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SZSE:300083 Discounted Cash Flow July 8th 2022The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.998. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group, we've put together three additional factors you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does 300083 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 300083's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,通过估计公司未来的现金流并将其折现为现值,来评估广东创世纪智能装备集团有限公司(SZSE:300083)作为投资机会的吸引力。这将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型来实现。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对广东创世纪智能装备集团的最新分析
模型
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN人民币14.亿元 | CN元11.6亿元 | 净额10.4亿元 | CN元9.68.0亿元 | 净额9.323亿元 | 净额9.173亿元 | 净额9.158亿元 | 净额9.237亿元 | 净额9.383亿元 | 净额9.578亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@-10.9% | Est@-6.66% | Est@-3.69% | Est@-1.61% | Est@-0.16% | Est@0.86% | Est@1.58% | Est@2.08% |
现值(CN元,百万元)贴现8.2% | CN元1.3K元 | CN元995元 | CN元819元 | CN元707元 | CN元629元 | CN元573元 | CN元528元 | CN元493元 | CN元463元 | CN元437元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币69亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用8.2%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元958M×(1+3.2%)?(8.2%-3.2%)=CN元20b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元200B?(1+8.2%)10=CN人民币91亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总权益价值,在本例中为16b元人民币。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前11.2元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时的公允价值附近。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
深圳证券交易所:300083贴现现金流2022年7月8日假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将广东创世智能装备集团视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.2%,这是基于杠杆率为0.998的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
下一步:
虽然很重要,但理想情况下,贴现现金流计算不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。对于广东创世纪智能装备集团,我们总结了三个你应该探索的额外因素:
- 财务状况:300083的人有健康的资产负债表吗?看看我们的自由资产负债表分析,对杠杆和风险等关键因素进行了六项简单的检查。
- 未来收益:300083的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对深交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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