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Cnorm 保密 ID: 105123529
I am just a nobody
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    我并非在为CNBC或其内容背书,但为了提供信息背景,您可能会发现观看他们制作的视频并理解他们的论点会有所帮助。 - 油管
    Anthropic的铂金包问题… 以及为何这可能让他们输掉竞赛
    Anthropic完全清楚付费客户花了多少钱… 因为他们的访问收费极高,几乎要了‘一颗肾和肝’。我个人因此限制了自己的使用量… 将不太关键的查询转移到其他竞争对手的LLM上。
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    Cnorm 赞并评论了
    听我说……我只是个小型散户投资者……我对全球经济和战争又能了解多少。
    但是昨晚,在海军封锁、可能摧毁不合规油轮以及可能恢复积极战争的背景下……美国指数,尤其是纳斯达克(活跃的风险偏好指标)收盘高于开盘。而且不仅仅是微幅上涨……标普500期货周日晚上开盘下跌1.1%。到收盘时……
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    Cnorm 预约了直播
    $阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$
    阿斯麦2026年第一季度 财报电话会议定于 4月15日东部时间上午9:00/4月15日新加坡时间晚上9:00/4月15日澳大利亚东部夏令时间晚上11:00 立即订阅,加入与管理层的实时财报会议!
    超预期还是不及预期?
    你对 阿斯麦的第一季度 的收益如何?公司能否超出或未达预期?务必点击“预订”按钮获取 阿斯麦的管理层将发表讲话!
    免责声明:
    本演示文稿仅供参考...
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    阿斯麦2026年第一季度财报电话会议
    04/15 08:00
    回看
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    那么为什么股票没有大涨?因为这一历史性的财报发布在一个不利的背景下。鹰派美联储在收盘和财报发布之间改变了宏观背景。但这并不是唯一的因素……聪明资金整周的高位预先布局、对81%利润率的周期峰值怀疑,以及投资者对这是否是可持续的经常性收益还是峰值经济效益的争论,都导致了盘后反应的平淡。盘后股价走势反映了在完整电话会议细节被消化之前,在稀薄流动性中多种对立力量的碰撞……
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    @Cnorm:Hey Moomoo, your analysis reflects the work of a lazy person…

    The ‘priced-in’ take is too shallow… This was not a routine beat that the market already anticipated.

    Micron reported $12.20 adjusted EPS vs the Street’s $9.21 (32% beat) and $23.86B revenue vs $19.94B expected (20% beat). That part… the quarter itself… smart money had partially positioned for. But the Q3 guide was $19.15 EPS vs the Street’s $11.70. Revenue guide $33.5B vs $23.8B expected. Gross margin 81%. That’s a 64% gap between what the company sees and what analysts were modelling. Nobody priced that in!

    And then the guidance went further: FY2026 capex above $25B, equipment spend growing year-over-year in FY2027, construction capex increasing $10B+ in FY2027, supply-demand tight ‘beyond 2026,’ a 30% dividend increase. Those aren’t ‘we’re The ‘priced-in’ take is too shallow.
    This was not a routine beat that the market already anticipated. Micron reported $12.20 adjusted EPS vs the Street’s $9.21 (32% beat) and $23.86B revenue vs $19.94B expected (20% beat). That part… the quarter itself… smart money had partially positioned for. But the Q3 guide was $19.15 EPS vs the Street’s $11.70. Revenue guide $33.5B vs $23.8B expected. Gross margin 81%. That’s a 64% gap between what the company sees and what analysts were modelling. Nobody priced that in. And then the call headlines went further: FY2026 capex above $25B, equipment spend growing year-over-year in FY2027, construction capex increasing $10B+ in FY2027, supply-demand tight ‘beyond 2026’… a 30% dividend increase. Those aren’t ‘we’re having a good quarter’ numbers. Those are ‘we’re building new factories now that need to be filled with equipment through 2028-2029, and we’re telling you in advance the spending accelerates’!

    The Street’s models are mispriced by 40-60% on the forward quarter and the sell-side revision cycle hasn’t even started. It begins tomorrow.

    美光科技发布超预期财报,为何股价没有大涨?
    嘿Moomoo,你的分析反映了一个懒人的工作……
    所谓‘已计入价格’的看法太肤浅了……这不是市场已经预期到的常规超预期。
    美光科技报告调整后每股收益 $12.20,相比之下,市场的预期是 $9.21(超出32%),营收为 $238.6亿,而预期是 $199.4亿(超出20%)。这一部分……这个季度本身……聪明的资金已经部分布局。但第三季度的指引显示每股收益 $19.15,相比之下,市场的预期是 $11.70。收入指引为 $335亿,而预期为 $238亿。毛利率81%。这就是公司预期和分析师模型之间的64%差距……
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    事实……
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    @Cnorm:Hey Moomoo, You got to do a better job in fact-checking. American Rare Earths Ltd (and not USA Rare Earth) was selected to provide feedstock for Department of Energy Minerals to Materials Supply Chain Research Facility Consortium…

    When inaccurate market-moving information is published, retail investors can be misled into buying the wrong stock based on a false premise. If they later discover the report was wrong after the price moves against them, real financial losses may already have been incurred. Please correct the article immediately and strengthen your verification process… because errors like this can materially mislead investors.
    在隔夜交易中,内存芯片股继续扩大涨幅。
    事实……
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    @Cnorm:Hey Moomoo, You got to do a better job in fact-checking. American Rare Earths Ltd (and not USA Rare Earth) was selected to provide feedstock for Department of Energy Minerals to Materials Supply Chain Research Facility Consortium…

    When inaccurate market-moving information is published, retail investors can be misled into buying the wrong stock based on a false premise. If they later discover the report was wrong after the price moves against them, real financial losses may already have been incurred. Please correct the article immediately and strengthen your verification process… because errors like this can materially mislead investors.
    在隔夜交易中,内存芯片股继续扩大涨幅。
    嘿,Moomoo,你得在事实核查方面做得更好一些。被选中为美国能源部矿产到材料供应链研究设施联盟提供原料的是美国稀土有限公司(American Rare Earths Ltd,而不是USA Rare Earth)……
    当发布不准确的、能够影响市场的信息时,散户投资者可能会基于错误的前提买入错误的股票。如果他们后来在价格走势对其不利后发现报告是错误的,可能已经遭受了实际的财务损失……
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    美国经济数据
    今天有五个数据发布,分布在两个时间窗口……1月PCE通胀、第四季度GDP第二次估算值、1月耐用品订单于东部时间上午8:30发布,随后JOLTS职位空缺和密歇根消费者信心指数于东部时间上午10:00发布。这些数据显示,经济在某些领域正在疲软,而在其他领域仍然具有韧性,核心通胀始终居高不下。既没有鹰派冲击,也没有鸽派缓解。这种结果证实了……
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    经济的三项健康检查
    美国政府在东部时间8:30发布了三份经济报告,一份关于就业,一份关于住房,一份关于贸易。以下是它们所显示的内容……
    就业 -> 每周,政府都会统计首次申请失业救济金的美国人数量。本周:21.3万人,略好于预期的215,000。简单来说,没有太多人被解雇。每周的申请人数尚未显示出明显的劳动力市场压力。但裁员通常会滞后于这种冲击。当战争开始时,企业不会立即开始裁员,而是会观望、重新评估并首先减少工时。如果像航空公司、物流和酒店等对油价敏感的行业开始裁员,那将在接下来的几周内显现,而不是今晚。第一张多米诺骨牌尚未倒下,但这并不意味着它不会……
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