Arsoni5t
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Arsoni5t
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当我反思了2024年9月非农业人口（NFP）数据大幅上升，新增了令人惊讶的254,000个职位时，我不禁深入探讨了现在看来更加可疑的报告。 254,000个工作岗位，我不禁深入挖掘现在看来更加可疑的这份报告。就在我们认为围绕美国劳动力市场的叙事可能会稳定下来时，一个关键事实浮现：只有65%的公司 做出了回应，这构成了这些数字的基础。这一真相，... 数据的怀疑加深：对2024年9月非农业就业人数的进一步观察
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Arsoni5t
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$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 美国九月非农就业人数为+254000，预测为+140000，之前为+159000；美国九月失业率为4.1%，预测为4.2%，之前为4.2%
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这真的算得上是10个工作吗？
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@NCar：by having one person do the work of 10 so they don't have to pay out as much but still take in the same amount or more just for less ...and people do the extra work because they need the job need to work to support themselves and family :/
美国9月ADP非农就业变化+143000，预测为+124000，前值为+99000几个月后他们会“修订”数字，引用某种方法论问题。完全是虚假的。
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@Asian_Farmer：Fr what they do is they play with the criteria and make a lot of people to not be counted in the labor pool hence..
美国9月ADP非农就业变化+143000，预测为+124000，前值为+99000没错！如果政府随意分派烂工作，他们可以在选举前人为地提高数字
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@MonkeyGee：numbers are fake. can you find a job. these are burger flipping jobs. government employment should be excluded from this number
美国9月ADP非农就业变化+143000，预测为+124000，前值为+99000
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Arsoni5t : 看得我一眼懵逼…已经降到降息消息之前的价位了
Arsoni5t 103680587 : 但是为什么呢？通货膨胀率一直维持在2%。中立利率应该更接近这个数字。为什么10年期收益率没有反映这一点呢？