By Avi Salzman
Supply shortages may have impacted how consumers planned their holiday shopping, convincing more people to stock up on gifts early in case they couldn't be shipped in time. That's one takeaway from the early data on Black Friday sales, which paint a mixed picture for retailers.
Adobe (ADBE) released statistics on Saturday that showed online sales on Thanksgiving were about the same as levels from a year ago, while Black Friday sales were down slightly from 2020 -- not quite the blockbuster they have been in the past. The sales figures come from records of more than 1 trillion online visits to retail websites, Adobe said.
"For the first time ever, Black Friday saw a reversal of the growth trend of past years," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights. "Shoppers are being strategic in their gift shopping, buying much earlier in the season and being flexible about when they shop to make sure they get the best deals."
The flat numbers from Adobe only tell part of the story, however. Data on in-store shopping showed large sales gains from 2020, when vaccines had not yet been rolled out. Mastercard said on Friday that its initial data showed 43% growth in in-store sales, as well as a 10.6% rise in online sales. And Shopify (SHOP) said that the average Black Friday shopper at businesses that use its service was spending more -- people checked out "carts" worth $101.20 this year versus $90.70 in 2020.
Other data from Adobe seems to show that consumers stocked up before Thanksgiving. Spending has been up throughout the month, with 19 days where consumers spent more than $3 billion, versus just five last year. One reason people might be shopping before Black Friday was anxiety about possible supply shortages.
Consumers are more than twice as likely to get an out-of-stock message when they search for a product today than they were before the pandemic, according to Adobe.
Yet more data show that customer behavior is changing, benefiting retailers that offer shoppers flexible pickup options. The way that consumers now shop often involves a mix of in-person and online engagement. Purchases made online and picked up curbside have increased 70% this month from pre-pandemic days, according to Adobe.