DJ USD Index Regains 94.00 Level, Bitcoin Surges Past $55,000 -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook

By Trading Central

The following are projected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 111.15-111.60 111.00-111.80
EUR/USD 1.1530-1.1570 1.1515-1.1585
AUD/USD 0.7240-0.7305 0.7220-0.7330
NZD/USD 0.6883-0.6934 0.6869-0.6958
GBP/USD 1.3560-1.3610 1.3545-1.3630
USD/CHF 0.9255-0.9290 0.9240-0.9305
USD/CAD 1.2560-1.2610 1.2540-1.2630
EUR/JPY 128.30-129.05 128.10-129.25
EUR/GBP 0.8480-0.8518 0.8469-0.8536

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks rebounded further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 102.32 points (+0.30%) to 34416, the S&P 500 rose 17.83 points (+0.41%) to 4363, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 92.6 points (+0.63%) to 14766.

The utilities, food & beverage, and household & personal products sectors gained the most, while the energy, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, and consumer durables & apparel sectors were under pressure. Twitter (TWTR) climbed 2.39%. In after-market hours, the company announced the sale of its MoPub business to AppLovin Corp (APP) for about $1 billion.

Microsoft (MSFT) advanced 1.51%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) was up 1.27%. Meanwhile, Electronic Arts (EA) tumbled 6.95%, Moderna (MRNA) fell 8.94%, and American Airlines (AAL) was down 4.33%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 1.522%..

Regarding U.S. economic data, payroll processing firm ADP reported that the economy added 568,000 private jobs in September, more than 430,000 expected and 374,000 in August.

European stocks closed in negative territory. The DAX 40 fell 1.46%, the CAC 40 dropped 1.26%, and the FTSE 100 lost 1.15%.

U.S. WTI crude futures dropped $1.83 (-2.32%) to $77.10 a barrel.

Gold price added $3 to $1,763 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar regained some strength against other major currencies. The dollar index rebounded to 94.21

EUR/USD dropped 38 pips to 1.1560. Official data showed that retail sales in the Eurozone grew 0.3% on month in August (vs +0.8% expected). Germany's factory orders fell 7.7% on month in August (vs -2.2% expected).

GBP/USD fell 41 pips to 1.3588. The Markit U.K. construction purchasing managers index posted at 52.6 for September (vs 54.0 expected).

AUD/USD slipped 16 pips to 0.7276.

USD/JPY declined 5 pips to 111.41.

USD/CHF edged down 8 pips to 0.9272, and USD/CAD added 7 pips to 1.2590.

Bitcoin surged over 8% to $55,700, the highest level since May. Ether was up 2% to $3,590.

USD/JPY Intraday: Key resistance at 111.60. The pair is off a low at 111.15 seen overnight, but remains capped by the 50-period moving average. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still below 50 indicating a lack of upward momentum for the pair. A return to 111.15 will call for a further decline toward 111.00 on the downside. Only a break above the key resistance at 111.60 will bring about a bullish reversal.

EUR/USD Intraday: Capped by declining trend-line. The pair remains capped by a bearish trend line drawn from the start of the week. A sustainable rebound is still not in sight. The trailing key resistance has been lowered to 1.1570. Unless this level is surpassed, the pair is expected to return to 1.1530 on the downside. And a break below 1.1530 will trigger a further fall toward 1.1515.

AUD/USD Intraday: Further advance. The pair posts a rebound and records a higher bottom, suggesting a bullish signal. The golden cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. Therefore, as long as 0.7240 acts as the key support level, expect a rise with targets at 0.7305 and 0.7330 in extension. Alternatively, a break below 0.7240 would bring a return with 0.7220 as a target.

NZD/USD intraday: Key resistance level at 0.6934. Although the pair posts a rebound, it is still trading below the key resistance level at 0.6934, which should limit the upside potential. The relative strength index also suggests the lack of upward momentum. In this case, unless 0.6934 is violated, the pair should expect another to 0.6883 and even to 0.6869 in extension. On the other hand, breaking above 0.6934 would open a path to 0.6958 on the upside.

GBP/USD Intraday: Watch 1.3630. The pair has broken above the declining trend line, indicating a bullish reversal signal. The 20-period moving average is also turning upward. Therefore, as long as 1.3560 holds on the downside, expect a further advance with targets at 1.3610 and 1.3630 in extension. Alternatively, below 1.3560, expect a return with 1.3545 as a target.

USD/CHF Intraday: Target 0.9240. The pair retreated from 0.9305 and has broken below the rising trend line. The bearish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. Therefore, as long as 0.9290 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 0.9255 and 0.9240 in extension. On the other hand, a break above 0.9290 would bring a bounce with 0.9305 as a target.

USD/CAD Intraday: Towards 1.2540. The pair has retreated sharply after reaching the day-high of October 4. In fact, the 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period one, and the relative strength index has dropped to the 30s, signaling a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 1.2610, expect a decline to 1.2560 and 1.2540. Alternatively, a break above 1.2610 would trigger a bounce to 1.2630.

EUR/JPY Intraday: Downside prevails. The pair remains on the downside despite a modest rebound. Currently, it is capped by the 50-period moving average, while the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as the key resistance at 129.05 holds, the pair should target 128.30 and 128.10 on the downside. Alternatively, above 129.05, expect a rebound to 129.25.

EUR/GBP Intraday: Under pressure. The pair has failed to show signs of a convincing rebound. Currently, it is trading at levels below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index stays subdued in the 40s, indicating a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 0.8518, expect a drop to 0.8480 and 0.8469. Alternatively, a break above 0.8518 would trigger an advance to 0.8536.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 06, 2021 20:49 ET (00:49 GMT)

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