Caijing Lianhe C50 wind direction Index survey: New social financing in June may increase year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and M2 continues to rebound.
① The median forecast for new renminbi loans in June is 2.03 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the same period last year; ② The median forecast for new social financing in June is 3.9 trillion yuan, which is an increase compared to last year; ③ The year-on-year CPI in June may still hover around zero, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may remain at -3.3% as in May.
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China Securities Co.,Ltd.: In July, the market is expected to focus on Trade around the mid-year reports, paying attention to directions such as overseas computing power chains.
CSC states that based on historical review experience, if there are no significant macroeconomic impacts, the market typically focuses on trading mid-year performance in July and August.
In June, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion Range.
In June, the manufacturing supply and demand saw expansion again, exports showed marginal improvement, but employment and prices continued to remain sluggish, leading to a slight decline in business confidence; the economic downturn pressure may increase in the second half of the year, with attention on the implementation of previous incremental policies and the possibility of policy intensification.
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China PMI Signals Continued Decline in Manufacturing
China's official manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7, compared to the previous value of 49.5.
In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' Index continued to rise, and the new orders Index rebounded to the expansion Range.
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China Holds Benchmark Lending Rates Steady as Expected in June
The LPR Quote for June has been released: the rates for both the 5-year and 1-year periods remain unchanged.
The loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) for June have been released: the LPR for periods over 5 years is 3.5%, the same as last month. The 1-year LPR is 3%, also unchanged from last month.
Three new trends in the Futures market: QFI's participation in on-site ETF Options Trading attracts the most attention.
① The Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange have all announced the expansion of the participation scope for qualified foreign investors in Commodity Futures and Options Trading, involving 16 varieties; ② The participation scope for QFI has also been expanded to on-exchange ETF Options Trading, covering 9 options varieties, but is limited to hedging transactions; ③ The central bank and the Securities Regulatory Commission are jointly promoting RMB FX trading, marking a new stage in the development of the foreign exchange market.
Concerning financial openness! What is the deeper significance behind the establishment of the international Operation center for digital renminbi and the pilot program for offshore trade finance services?
① Pan Gongsheng, the president of the People's Bank of China, announced eight significant financial opening measures. Industry insiders indicated that the central bank's eight measures, which aim to deepen financial market openness, strengthen financial infrastructure, and innovate policy tools, will further enhance the openness and international competitiveness of China's financial market. ② In the context of unclear U.S.-China trade policies, further deepening cross-border financial policies and services will provide more financial support for cross-border enterprises.
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China Industrial Production in May Up 5.8% on Year
China's Broad Money Supply Up 8% as of End-May
From January to May, urban fixed Assets investment in China grew by 3.7%, while investment in manufacturing increased by 8.5%.
By sector, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, and Real Estate development investment decreased by 10.7%.
National Statistics Bureau: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%.
In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,132.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding Autos were 3,731.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.0%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,317.1 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0%.
May financial data released: The increase in "liquid money" led to a significant rise in M1 growth rate, and the willingness of enterprises to withdraw funds has notably increased.
At the end of May, the broad money (MMF) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year; at the end of May, the outstanding social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. At the end of May, M1 grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in the growth of 'liquid money,' reflecting that recent financial support measures have effectively boosted market confidence, and there are signs of recovery and improvement in economic activities such as investment and consumption.
In the first five months, new social financing reached 18.63 trillion yuan, and new loans amounted to 10.68 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 7.9% year-on-year at the end of May.
According to central bank data, the increase in social financing from January to May is 18.63 trillion yuan, compared to 16.3429 trillion yuan from January to April; New人民币 loans from January to May amount to 10.68 trillion yuan, estimated at 10.9597 trillion yuan, with January to April at 10.0597 trillion yuan.
Central Bank: By the end of May, the total social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.
On June 13, according to preliminary Statistics from the People's Bank of China, the outstanding social financing scale at the end of May 2025 was 426.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.