Gold Futures End Higher Despite Stronger Dollar On Geopolitical Jitters
Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" is in full swing.
This week, Trump has been issuing trade letters and imposing a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, with both intensity and pace exceeding market expectations. Although the market reaction is relatively calm at the moment, the paradox worth noting is that under the expectation of "TACO", the strong performance of the market that "ignores tariffs" seems to prove that the pain caused by tariffs is decreasing. With no "lingering concerns", the "expected TACO" may also fall through.
Nomura: The next few weeks are a critical window for the release of tariff effects, the risk of stagflation in the US is intensifying, and the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates until December.
Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura, warns that the global economy is stepping into a realm of uncertainty. Currently, U.S. companies are hoarding imports due to high inventory levels, and tariffs have not yet truly reflected in consumer prices, but as companies replenish their stocks in Q3, rising import costs will inevitably transmit to inflation, with the core U.S. CPI expected to rebound to 3.3% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve will be very cautious, not lowering interest rates until December, and the rate cut may be less than the market expects.
ECB's Bar for Another Rate Cut Is High, Schnabel Says -- Update
ECB's Bar for Another Rate Cut Is High, Schnabel Says
Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" has started a war, European stocks opened lower, the US dollar and Gold strengthened, and Bitcoin reached a new high.
Trump escalates trade threats, suggesting higher tariffs on most trading partners, provoking a violent reaction in global markets. Equity Index futures decline, the USD strengthens, and investors' concerns about the uncertainty of tariff policies resurface.