FUD TACO Self delusion
Trump Cancels Scheduled Strikes Against Iran; Says Final Points Approved by All Parties
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vchong888
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Over the past week, the Hong Kong stock market delivered a textbook example of market rhythm—'from extreme anomaly to a desperate rebound.' Retail investor sentiment was pushed to freezing point, while historical data once again served as a crisis compass amid turbulent times.
Friday (May 29), the final trading day of May, saw the Hang Seng Index close at 25,182, up 176 points. Compared to Thursday’s (May 28) settlement-day low of 24,727, the index rebounded by over 400 points from its intraday trough. Friday’s overnight futures also continued to rise slightly, finally breaking the '9 down days in 10' curse. However, for the full week, the Hang Seng Index still declined by more than 400 points, marking its third consecutive weekly bearish candle.
1. The '9 Down Days in 10' Pattern in HK Stocks and the Settlement-Day Turning Point
Since May 14, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ And, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ when the company announced earnings and the market opened over 400 points higher, initial excitement quickly faded as Hong Kong stocks sharply reversed course. What followed felt like a curse: over the next 10 trading days, the market posted bearish candles on nine of them, with cumulative losses exceeding 2,000 points at the worst point.
While a 2,000-point drop is historically modest, what shocked investors was how completely the Hong Kong market ignored strong external tailwinds—particularly the record-breaking rallies in U.S. and Asia-Pacific equities. This extreme underperformance fueled widespread disappointment. The sharp decoupling triggered overwhelmingly pessimistic and despairing sentiment online, especially when the index broke below the 25,000 mark on settlement day...
Friday (May 29), the final trading day of May, saw the Hang Seng Index close at 25,182, up 176 points. Compared to Thursday’s (May 28) settlement-day low of 24,727, the index rebounded by over 400 points from its intraday trough. Friday’s overnight futures also continued to rise slightly, finally breaking the '9 down days in 10' curse. However, for the full week, the Hang Seng Index still declined by more than 400 points, marking its third consecutive weekly bearish candle.
1. The '9 Down Days in 10' Pattern in HK Stocks and the Settlement-Day Turning Point
Since May 14, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ And, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ when the company announced earnings and the market opened over 400 points higher, initial excitement quickly faded as Hong Kong stocks sharply reversed course. What followed felt like a curse: over the next 10 trading days, the market posted bearish candles on nine of them, with cumulative losses exceeding 2,000 points at the worst point.
While a 2,000-point drop is historically modest, what shocked investors was how completely the Hong Kong market ignored strong external tailwinds—particularly the record-breaking rallies in U.S. and Asia-Pacific equities. This extreme underperformance fueled widespread disappointment. The sharp decoupling triggered overwhelmingly pessimistic and despairing sentiment online, especially when the index broke below the 25,000 mark on settlement day...
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vchong888
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![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined"){kind=small}
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Xiaomi Group-W is currently trading at 31.120 yuan, slightly above the 20-day line at 31.061 and the 10-day line at 30.594, showing initial signs of stabilization in the short term. However, the current price remains below the 30-day line at 31.457 and the upper Bollinger Band at 32.668, indicating that the stock is merely experiencing a slight improvement in a low-level rebound, not yet truly strengthening. To confirm a sustained uptrend, it needs to first stabilize above 31.061, then break through the 31.457 to 32.668 range.
Investor comments reflect mixed market sentiment. On one hand, some believe there is still room for growth, even targeting 35, 40, or 45 yuan, while others think it could rise directly, showing that some funds still believe in Xiaomi's medium-term story. On the other hand, some investors feel the trend is weak, with single-day gains unable to hold, and warn against chasing highs, indicating that confidence in short-term buying has not fully recovered.
Common market questions focus on three points: First, whether the price can stabilize around 31 yuan; second, whether 31.5 yuan is a short-term peak; third, whether mobile and automotive businesses will support a higher valuation. Technically, 31.061 yuan is the short-term inflection point, 31.457 yuan approaches the next resistance zone, and 32.668 yuan represents a more significant breakout level. If it fails to break through 32.668, the target of above 35 yuan remains a more aggressive expectation.
In terms of trading volume, although some investors are paying attention to changes in volume, current technical analysis shows that the latest trading volume bar has contracted compared to earlier, coupled with a small rebound in stock price, suggesting that the rebound momentum is not strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately...
Investor comments reflect mixed market sentiment. On one hand, some believe there is still room for growth, even targeting 35, 40, or 45 yuan, while others think it could rise directly, showing that some funds still believe in Xiaomi's medium-term story. On the other hand, some investors feel the trend is weak, with single-day gains unable to hold, and warn against chasing highs, indicating that confidence in short-term buying has not fully recovered.
Common market questions focus on three points: First, whether the price can stabilize around 31 yuan; second, whether 31.5 yuan is a short-term peak; third, whether mobile and automotive businesses will support a higher valuation. Technically, 31.061 yuan is the short-term inflection point, 31.457 yuan approaches the next resistance zone, and 32.668 yuan represents a more significant breakout level. If it fails to break through 32.668, the target of above 35 yuan remains a more aggressive expectation.
In terms of trading volume, although some investors are paying attention to changes in volume, current technical analysis shows that the latest trading volume bar has contracted compared to earlier, coupled with a small rebound in stock price, suggesting that the rebound momentum is not strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately...
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In the trading arena, I don't blindly believe in 'only buying the strongest.' Sometimes, running a dual strategy of 'chasing breakouts' and 'betting on rebounds' can actually expand profit potential.
1. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ : A textbook example of 'flat-top breakout'
At the beginning of this week, Baidu was undoubtedly the strongest component stock in the tech index, positioned above all moving averages. As early as early April, when the share price was below 108 yuan, I had already set up my position. Later, during the upward fluctuations, I reduced most of my holdings. However, on Wednesday (5/6), when Baidu's share price broke through the key flat-top level of 126 yuan, I added to my Long Call.
Why dare to add positions at the breakout point? This is a typical 'flat-top breakout.' Compared to a gap-up, which easily triggers a bearish candle pullback, Baidu broke through with a 'bullish candle body' that day, indicating a higher success rate.
Yesterday, I predicted the first target price would be 143 yuan. Today, it temporarily reached a high of 142.9 yuan, just one tick away from the target.
2. $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ : The 'weakest counterattack' where deep declines turn into advantages
In contrast to Baidu, Kuaishou is one of the weakest members of the tech index, constrained below all moving averages. However, after the share price bottomed out at 42 yuan at the end of April and stabilized, it showed signs of small bullish candles for several consecutive days, gradually outperforming or catching up.
Since Kuaishou has experienced a prolonged slow decline, its option implied volatility (IV) is extremely low, making it suitable for a Long Call bet. I began setting up positions on Monday and Tuesday...
1. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ : A textbook example of 'flat-top breakout'
At the beginning of this week, Baidu was undoubtedly the strongest component stock in the tech index, positioned above all moving averages. As early as early April, when the share price was below 108 yuan, I had already set up my position. Later, during the upward fluctuations, I reduced most of my holdings. However, on Wednesday (5/6), when Baidu's share price broke through the key flat-top level of 126 yuan, I added to my Long Call.
Why dare to add positions at the breakout point? This is a typical 'flat-top breakout.' Compared to a gap-up, which easily triggers a bearish candle pullback, Baidu broke through with a 'bullish candle body' that day, indicating a higher success rate.
Yesterday, I predicted the first target price would be 143 yuan. Today, it temporarily reached a high of 142.9 yuan, just one tick away from the target.
2. $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ : The 'weakest counterattack' where deep declines turn into advantages
In contrast to Baidu, Kuaishou is one of the weakest members of the tech index, constrained below all moving averages. However, after the share price bottomed out at 42 yuan at the end of April and stabilized, it showed signs of small bullish candles for several consecutive days, gradually outperforming or catching up.
Since Kuaishou has experienced a prolonged slow decline, its option implied volatility (IV) is extremely low, making it suitable for a Long Call bet. I began setting up positions on Monday and Tuesday...
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While many AI labs release flashy research papers or closed-source demos, Xiaomi stands out by shipping powerful, production-ready AI models directly into the hands of millions of users and developers. The flagship example is MiMo-V2.5-Pro, launched in late April 2026 — a massive open-source Mixture-of-Experts model (1.02 trillion total parameters, 42 billion active) with a 1 million token context window and native multimodal (text, image, video,...
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After hitting a one year low of $29.02. XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) Repurchases 3.4254M Shrs for HKD100M on Apr 30th. Is this the buy signal for Xiaomi?
Let's look at the fundamentals.
Xiaomi currently stands out among China’s Terrific 10 as the most compelling investment opportunity. Our sum-of-parts valuation analysis shows that the stock is significantly undervalued relative to the growth potential of its diversified businesses.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$
Using a...
Let's look at the fundamentals.
Xiaomi currently stands out among China’s Terrific 10 as the most compelling investment opportunity. Our sum-of-parts valuation analysis shows that the stock is significantly undervalued relative to the growth potential of its diversified businesses.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$
Using a...
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Tesla's legacy automotive EV business has reached maturity and is structurally mismatched with the company's long-term potential. Regulatory supports that once masked its challenges (the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, now expired, and high-margin regulatory/ZEV/GHG credits that provided billions in revenue) are fading rapidly. Continuing heavy capital investment in traditional vehicle manufacturing risks trapping Tesla in a low-...
Tesla's legacy automotive EV business has reached maturity and is structurally mismatched with the company's long-term potential. Regulatory supports that once masked its challenges (the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, now expired, and high-margin regulatory/ZEV/GHG credits that provided billions in revenue) are fading rapidly. Continuing heavy capital investment in traditional vehicle manufacturing risks trapping Tesla in a low-...
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