The sentiment in the US stock market is very positive right now, but this Friday the US non-farm payroll data will be released. Be cautious of the poor data from April, as this week will be a turning point for the US stock market!
In my opinion, the recession will last until mid to late May, after all the panic from April's data is fully released, and after Trump completes the unequal agreements with other small countries. Only then will Trump truly engage in trade negotiations with China.
Recently, the approach remains tough; unless there is another triple threat to stocks, bonds, and currencies, it may be possible for Trump's attitude to change!
Historical experience tells us that major market bottoms generally occur at the end of an interest rate reduction cycle!
Especially as the earnings report season is nearing its end, the profitability exhibited by the AI industry seems unable to justify their current market cap, and the biggest bubble currently in the Nasdaq is supported by the AI industry, while also facing competitive pressure from the AI industry in China.
Therefore, if the sentiment of this rebound weakens and gradually enters into the realization of earnings report expectations, under the dual pressure of economic indices not meeting expectations, it is highly likely to accelerate the decline!
It can be seen that last week's stabilization point for the Nasdaq was actually a rebound when the weekly line approached the 120-week line. The second round of accelerated decline may continue from early May to mid-late May, and the real stabilization point may need to reach the 250-day weekly line!
This is exactly what I mentioned in my previous article about the weekly range in 2023! Currently, we are still oscillating within the first range, which is consistent with my viewpoint from a month ago!
Do not expect the Federal Reserve to respond to such poor economic data in April...

President Trump says another tariff pause is unlikely.