$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
After the release of PCE data in the USA, the short-term decline in the US dollar index further pushed up the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar hit a new high of 0.6937 for the year and then fell back to 0.69. The main reason for the rise in the Australian dollar is still the interest rate differential between the Fed and the RBA. Last week, the RBA announced interest rate decisions and CPI data. Although the monthly CPI data fell to the Fed's rate cut target, RBA Governor continued to suggest that there would be no rate cut in the near term, providing greater support for the Australian dollar. As the central bank that adjusted interest rates the latest this year, the main reason is still that quarterly inflation has not reached the Fed's target level. Historically, the RBA rarely implements rate cuts when core inflation is outside the target range. Focus on the third quarter CPI data to be released a month later. If this data falls to the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, the RBA may start its rate cut cycle within the year.
Technically, the Australian dollar remains strong, continuing the three-week upward trend and oscillating upward. After making a deep retracement to the 0.682 level and testing the trendlines, it stabilized and moved higher. The price is back above the 0.687 platform. In the short term, these two platform levels have become important supports for the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar maintains upward momentum above these levels.
Upper resistance line at 0.692, second resistance line at 0.694, third resistance line at 0.696.
Lower support line at 0.690, second support line at 0.688, third...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Last Friday, the USA released the latest PCE inflation data. The August PCE data recorded a 2.2% figure lower than expected, very close to the Fed's target of 2%. The core PCE recorded 2.7%, in line with expectations (The core PCE excludes food and energy, which have large fluctuations). After the data was published, the usd index broke through the previous low, hitting the lowest level since July last year. According to CME data, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed's November rate decision is still higher than the expectation for a 25 basis point cut. The world's largest gold etf, SPDR Gold Trust, reduced its holdings by 5.18 tons, marking the second reduction since August 23rd, with the first reduction being only 0.27 tons. Gold also entered the first round of correction on Friday, breaking below the 2650 level in the short term, touching a low of 2643, before closing near 2660. This week will see the release of the most influential non-farm data on gold, as well as statements from Fed policymakers, which will have a significant short-term impact on gold.
Technically, gold closed lower on Friday, marking the largest drop since September 18th after surpassing 2600. It fell by $10. After hitting a new all-time high on Thursday, the high on Friday kept moving lower, falling back within the uptrend channel maintained for 4 weeks. The upper boundary of the uptrend channel could become a short-term support-resistance swap for gold, indicating the overall trend remains oscillating upwards.

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Yesterday, the CPI data for August in Australia was released, recording 2.7%, in line with market expectations. CPI, as the most important indicator for the Australian Federal Reserve, decreased from 3.5% in the previous month to 2.7%. Combining the details of CPI, it can be observed that the main reason for this decrease is in the energy sector, with one aspect being the drop in oil prices, and the other being the adjustment of electricity prices by the federal government. In terms of energy, electricity prices saw a significant drop of 17.9%, marking the largest historical decline, while oil prices decreased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year. The monthly CPI did indeed reach the RBA's interest rate target range of 2%-3%, but more importantly, the focus is on the CPI data for the third quarter, set to be released on October 30th. If the data continues to stay within the RBA's target range, there may be expectations of an interest rate cut later this year.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar, accompanied by a short-term decline in the US dollar in early trading yesterday, refreshed its high of 0.690 since February last year. Subsequently, the price declined all the way, with the intraday decline almost erasing the gains of the previous trading day, falling to the low of the previous trading day, also the support level near 0.682 mentioned earlier. Pay close attention to the support role of this level, if broken, the Australian dollar may initiate a deeper pullback.
Upper first resistance line at 0.684, second resistance line at 0.687, third resistance line at 0.689.
Lower first support line at 0.682, second support...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday, in the early session, as the usd fell short-term, gold hit a new high and refreshed the 2670 level, but was later resisted and fell back. Recently, the main factors affecting gold in the market, apart from the heating up of the rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and the safe-haven sentiment of geopolitical tensions, have led to gold hitting historical highs in the past four trading days. The market is focused on tonight's GDP revision, Powell's public speech on the economic outlook, as well as the results of Friday's PCE data, hoping to find more clues as to whether the Fed will continue to cut rates by 50 basis points in the remaining two rate decisions this year. According to cme data, as of this morning, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed's November rate decision is 57.4%.
Technically, gold has hit new highs for four consecutive days, with strong bullish momentum. Yesterday, after touching the 2650 support twice intra-day, the price rebounded each time, but did not continue to rise above the intraday high of 2670, with the secondary high at 2667. In the short term, a triangle convergence may form above 2650, with a focus on the support at 2650. Be cautious about chasing long positions and guard against top reversal.
Upper resistance at 2660, secondary resistance at 2667, tertiary resistance at 2670.
Lower support at 2650, secondary support at 2637, tertiary support at 2625.
# This recommendation is only general, not considering your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, please be cautious...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD on H1 timeframe.
Yesterday, the Australian Reserve Bank kept the current interest rate at 4.35%, showing determination to restore inflation to the target level (2%-3%). In the post-meeting press conference, the RBA President mentioned that a rate hike was not explicitly considered at the meeting, no recent rate cuts were expected. It is predicted that August CPI might be below 3%. If the interest rate remains unchanged while other countries cut rates, it will support the Australian dollar. Today, the CPI data for August in Australia will be released. Market expectations suggest inflation may fall to 2.7%. If the data meets expectations, monthly CPI will align with the RBA target. However, the RBA is more concerned about the inflation data for the third quarter, which will be released next month, to determine if there are expectations of rate cuts this year. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China made significant moves yesterday by reducing reserve requirements, interest rates, and mortgage rates, providing some support to the Australian dollar. Attention will be on today's 11:30 CPI data release, as it will have a significant short-term impact on the Australian dollar.
Technically, the Australian dollar has hit its highest point since February last year, facing resistance near 0.691 and experiencing a slight retreat in early trading. Short-term support has moved up to around 0.687. There is strong resistance above for the Australian dollar, so caution is advised against top reversal.
Upper resistance line at 0.690, second resistance line at 0.691, and third resistance line at 0.693.
Lower support line at 0.689, second support line at 0.687, and third support line at 0.684.
...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday saw the release of another manufacturing data in the USA, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, covering 5 major regions in the USA that account for a large portion of the country's total economic GDP. The expected data was -12, but the actual data came in at -21, significantly below expectations, marking the lowest since mid-2020. This indicates the manufacturing sector, a vital economic pillar of the USA, is experiencing a severe slowdown. This has raised market expectations for a significant 50 basis points rate cut in the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The US dollar index plummeted to a yearly low, driving gold prices up. Tensions escalating in the Middle East have also led to more safe-haven funds flowing into gold. Gold hit new highs near 2665 again, closing just below 2660.
Technically, gold remains strong without a pullback, breaking through the previous nearly 4-week upward channel. The short-term slope has steepened, suggesting a potential need for adjustment in the short term. The short-term support level now stands around 2640 near the upper boundary of the upward channel. Gold prices have surged by 34% since the beginning of this year, so be cautious about chasing long positions to prevent top reversals. Implement strict stop-loss measures.
Top resistance at 2660, second resistance at 2665, third resistance at 2670.
Bottom support at 2650, second support at 2640, third support at 2625.
# This recommendation is purely general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate with caution. ...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Today there will be interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a speech by the RBA Governor. As the last central bank globally that has not adjusted interest rates yet, the widening interest rate differential has provided more support to the australian dollar. The australian dollar also hit near the highest point of the year around 0.685 yesterday. Market expectations for today's interest rate decision are to maintain the current rate, but more attention will be on the post-meeting remarks. Previously, the RBA was hawkish, stating no rate cut expectations in the near future. If the post-meeting remarks soften the previous hawkish comments, it may lead to a downward trend in the australian dollar. If the RBA continues to reiterate a hawkish stance, and tomorrow's CPI inflation data continues to show stubborn resistance to decline, there is a possibility of the australian dollar continuing to rise.
Technically, the australian dollar has obvious resistance at the high points of 0.687 in December last year and 0.690 in June and July, with limited upside potential, beware of top reversal. The australian dollar is short-term strong, achieving a 3.5% increase in just two weeks. There is still support from the trendlines on the downside. The speeches after the interest rate decision in today and tomorrow, as well as the release of CPI data, will have a significant impact on the short-term movement of the australian dollar. Caution in chasing long positions, beware of retracement.
Upper resistance line at 0.684, second resistance line at 0.685, third resistance line at 0.687.
Lower support line at 0.682, second support line at 0.680, third support line at 0.679.
# This recommendation is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H4
Last night, the PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the usa was released. The data shows that the service sector outperformed expectations, but the manufacturing sector remains below the boom-bust line of 50, falling short of expectations. The service sector is steadily expanding, but the manufacturing sector hit a new low in 15 months. According to cme data, the current market expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November exceeds 50%. Excluding the impact of the US dollar, in terms of geopolitics, Israel launched attacks on multiple regions in Lebanon yesterday, resulting in nearly 300 casualties. Safe-haven sentiment continued to drive the gold price higher after hitting a morning high of 2631 and reaching a new high near 2635, before finally closing down to 2628.
Technically, gold remains strong at the upper channel boundary on the 4-hour timeframe, and has refreshed new highs twice in a day. The pullback to around 2615 in early trading yesterday continued to be supported, with short-term bullish momentum still strong. However, there is a risk of retracement, and particular attention should be given to the support near 2602-2600 during the week. Enter cautiously and use strict stop-loss measures.
The upper first line resistance is 2630, the second line resistance is 2635, and the third line resistance is 2640.
The lower first line support is 2625, the second line support is 2615, and the third line support is 2605.

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
After the announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the local employment market data in australia on Thursday, the australian dollar closed with a large bullish candlestick, followed by a volatile downward trend on Friday. Currently, the market is waiting for the statement after tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of australia. The market expects that the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of australia will remain unchanged, but hopes to find more clues during the press conference after the decision. In the previous public statement, the Reserve Bank of australia stated that it will not cut interest rates in the near future, and after the Federal Reserve made a significant 50 basis point rate cut, if the Reserve Bank of australia continues to maintain a hawkish attitude, it may continue to boost the australian dollar. If the Reserve Bank of australia softens its previous stance and gives the market a certain possibility of interest rate cuts, the australian dollar will fall back. In addition to the interest rate decision, the most closely watched inflation data CPI by the Reserve Bank of australia will also be released this Wednesday. If inflation remains high, it may further strengthen the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of australia in the near future. If inflation falls, the Reserve Bank of australia is likely to start an interest rate cut cycle within the year, and the australian dollar will decline.
On the technical side, the australian dollar rebounded after hitting a new high for the year on Thursday and closed lower on Friday. In the short term, the highs and lows are both moving down, which may form a downward channel in the short term. However, there will be an upward trendline support around mid-September, meeting near the 0.679 level. This position may form a strong support and resistance level. Pay close attention to the movement near the 0.679 level.
There is resistance at the upper trendline...