$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$
Falcon 9 failed to launch.
It seemed like it ignited once, though.
Starlink Mission - Live Broadcast by SpaceX / X
Falcon 9 failed to launch.
It seemed like it ignited once, though.
Starlink Mission - Live Broadcast by SpaceX / X
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They're aggressively making upfront investments here and lining up tons of GPUs—but are there actually customers who will use them?
$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$
$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$
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The jobs report wasn't that bad. I thought stocks might rally as rate hike concerns eased, but then there's Meta...
Could it be getting caught up in the broad semiconductor sell-off?
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
Could it be getting caught up in the broad semiconductor sell-off?
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
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Probably because there was an announcement about the next launch.
It seems to be in the first half of August.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
AST SpaceMobile (@AST_SpaceMobile) on X" nonce="Mcujxyw9Ffrx8XnXlENCbQ=="
It seems to be in the first half of August.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
AST SpaceMobile (@AST_SpaceMobile) on X" nonce="Mcujxyw9Ffrx8XnXlENCbQ=="
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Jim Chanos is a legendary short-seller representing Wall Street and the founder of Kynikos Associates. He is famously known as "The Enron Terminator" or "Wall Street's Darth Vader" for accurately shorting Enron stock exactly one year before its accounting scandal was exposed. He continuously issues serious warnings about popular markets, focusing his research on financial fraud and overvaluation.
On June 12, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ on its IPO day, Chanos gave an interview to Bloomberg, clearly outlining his short thesis: the launch business has never been profitable in its 22-year history, none of Starship’s 12 missions have yet reached Earth orbit, and roughly half have experienced failures. $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ dropped sharply by 16.4% in a single day.
📉 Short Thesis:
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ IPO price: $135
Closing price on June 22: approximately $154
Starship: 0 out of 12 missions reached Earth orbit; partial failures occurred in approximately 6 missions...
On June 12, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ on its IPO day, Chanos gave an interview to Bloomberg, clearly outlining his short thesis: the launch business has never been profitable in its 22-year history, none of Starship’s 12 missions have yet reached Earth orbit, and roughly half have experienced failures. $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ dropped sharply by 16.4% in a single day.
📉 Short Thesis:
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ IPO price: $135
Closing price on June 22: approximately $154
Starship: 0 out of 12 missions reached Earth orbit; partial failures occurred in approximately 6 missions...
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I thought it wouldn't drop while there's passive demand from index inclusion, but the decline came sooner than expected.
Just thinking normally, it's way too high. Maybe I could still understand it at around $70—but actually, even that might be expensive.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$
Just thinking normally, it's way too high. Maybe I could still understand it at around $70—but actually, even that might be expensive.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$
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The cost of this launch was $66 million for three satellites at $22 million each, plus $74 million for the Falcon 9 charter fee, totaling $140 million.
To deploy 45 satellites, only 15 launches are needed, so $2.1 billion would be sufficient. With over $3.5 billion in cash on hand, additional capital raising isn't necessary.
Ultimately, around 250 satellites will be deployed, requiring roughly five times this amount in cash—so they’ll need to secure about $7 billion ($2.1 billion × 5 − $3.5 billion).
Although funding could also be secured through equity issuance or corporate bonds, commercial service can begin once 45 satellites are deployed, which should trigger explosive revenue growth.
Even under conservative consensus estimates, revenue is projected at $850 million in 2027 and $2 billion in 2028, making it seem relatively manageable to secure around $7 billion in cash.
And here’s where it gets exciting: deploying approximately 250 satellites will cost about $10.5 billion, but there won’t be many other significant expenses—meaning most of the revenue will translate into gross profit.
Even if the $10.5 billion in fixed assets is depreciated straight-line over 10 years, annual depreciation expense would only be $1.05 billion. Even with a 5-year depreciation schedule, it would amount to just $2.1 billion per year.
Of course, there are also other costs...
To deploy 45 satellites, only 15 launches are needed, so $2.1 billion would be sufficient. With over $3.5 billion in cash on hand, additional capital raising isn't necessary.
Ultimately, around 250 satellites will be deployed, requiring roughly five times this amount in cash—so they’ll need to secure about $7 billion ($2.1 billion × 5 − $3.5 billion).
Although funding could also be secured through equity issuance or corporate bonds, commercial service can begin once 45 satellites are deployed, which should trigger explosive revenue growth.
Even under conservative consensus estimates, revenue is projected at $850 million in 2027 and $2 billion in 2028, making it seem relatively manageable to secure around $7 billion in cash.
And here’s where it gets exciting: deploying approximately 250 satellites will cost about $10.5 billion, but there won’t be many other significant expenses—meaning most of the revenue will translate into gross profit.
Even if the $10.5 billion in fixed assets is depreciated straight-line over 10 years, annual depreciation expense would only be $1.05 billion. Even with a 5-year depreciation schedule, it would amount to just $2.1 billion per year.
Of course, there are also other costs...
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Markets are cooling off today, perhaps due to caution ahead of the FOMC.
Tomorrow’s a rocket launch—wonder how it’ll affect markets? With ongoing caution, even a successful launch might not spark much enthusiasm.
I don’t think there’ll be a rate hike, but if the statement hints at one, any gains from the launch could be completely wiped out.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
SPCX will rise until early next month, after which it will decline.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$
Tomorrow’s a rocket launch—wonder how it’ll affect markets? With ongoing caution, even a successful launch might not spark much enthusiasm.
I don’t think there’ll be a rate hike, but if the statement hints at one, any gains from the launch could be completely wiped out.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$
SPCX will rise until early next month, after which it will decline.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$
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