The sentiment in the US stock market is very positive right now, but this Friday the US non-farm payroll data will be released. Be cautious of the poor data from April, as this week will be a turning point for the US stock market!
In my opinion, the recession will last until mid to late May, after all the panic from April's data is fully released, and after Trump completes the unequal agreements with other small countries. Only then will Trump truly engage in trade negotiations with China.
Recently, the approach remains tough; unless there is another triple threat to stocks, bonds, and currencies, it may be possible for Trump's attitude to change!
Historical experience tells us that major market bottoms generally occur at the end of an interest rate reduction cycle!
Especially as the earnings report season is nearing its end, the profitability exhibited by the AI industry seems unable to justify their current market cap, and the biggest bubble currently in the Nasdaq is supported by the AI industry, while also facing competitive pressure from the AI industry in China.
Therefore, if the sentiment of this rebound weakens and gradually enters into the realization of earnings report expectations, under the dual pressure of economic indices not meeting expectations, it is highly likely to accelerate the decline!
It can be seen that last week's stabilization point for the Nasdaq was actually a rebound when the weekly line approached the 120-week line. The second round of accelerated decline may continue from early May to mid-late May, and the real stabilization point may need to reach the 250-day weekly line!
This is exactly what I mentioned in my previous article about the weekly range in 2023! Currently, we are still oscillating within the first range, which is consistent with my viewpoint from a month ago!
Do not expect the Federal Reserve to respond to such poor economic data in April...

This should be the last article in the current VIX series, and I hope these three articles can help moo friends find opportunities to tilt the odds in our favor when future black swan events occur (recently reading Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle", which repeatedly mentions this idea).
This article was prompted by seeing a moo friend comment below the first article about the "invisible loss" of long and short leveraged ETFs, asking.What is the reason for the continued rise of SVIX from 2022 to 2024?Of course, I also saw some comments under SVIX asking.Why did the VIX drop so much this time but SVIX only climbed a little from the bottom?Believe that this article will provide answers after reading it.
"History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes", believe that black swans will appear repeatedly, so by fully understanding the knowledge related to the VIX, we can continuously tilt the odds amidst panic.
Believe that after reading the previous article about"Path"the explanation, half of the knowledge regarding leverage and inverse ETFs has been understood, in this article we will discuss the other half that needs to be understood: the VIX as a structure of futures,Contango and Ba...