$Idemitsu Kosan (5019.JP)$
I’m starting to keep an eye on it![]()
$Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$
$Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021.JP)$
I’m starting to keep an eye on it
$Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$
$Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021.JP)$
Translated
1
$Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$
It’s pointless for the US president, who waged war without thinking ahead, to say anything on social media![]()
Even if things progress quickly, it will still take several months or more before any impact is felt from what has been done![]()
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
It’s pointless for the US president, who waged war without thinking ahead, to say anything on social media
Even if things progress quickly, it will still take several months or more before any impact is felt from what has been done
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
Translated
14
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined"){kind=small}
Financial Times report
MOL's OneMajesty, Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures (JUN6) (NK225main.JP)$
$Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$
MOL's OneMajesty, Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures (JUN6) (NK225main.JP)$
$Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$
Translated
+1
5
1
The ramblings of a market novice![]()
Since it's March![]()
There is a fairly high possibility that a major correction will begin starting next week![]()
(Due to reasons related to adult circumstances)
Will the big players who want to unwind historically accumulated arbitrage buy positions manage to exit smoothly by pushing prices up, or will they shift gears?![]()
Or will individual investors (leveraged buyers) who foresee this start exiting first?![]()
(We are watching closely)
I think the sell-off to unwind positions has already started because the price movement was strange this week![]()
The issue for both Japan and the US is the accumulation of leveraged buy positions![]()
(Since stock prices are being maintained at high levels with borrowed money, upward momentum will start to fade)
If the stock price in front of us is an illusion created by a bubble![]()
When the alarm clock rings, you wake up from a dream![]()
(In the past, there were many stocks trading below PBR 1x = since stocks don’t always go up, there’s a world where concepts like overvaluation and undervaluation no longer apply)
I’ve long advised against leveraging debt (margin trading) because both profits and losses can double in magnitude![]()
(Once the rewind begins, it leads to ruin = I’ve seen many people wiped out in the past)
It starts with a margin call, then progresses to throwing away profitable stocks to cover, but if the negative chain continues, prices keep falling until a margin cut (...)
Since it's March
Will the big players who want to unwind historically accumulated arbitrage buy positions manage to exit smoothly by pushing prices up, or will they shift gears?
I think the sell-off to unwind positions has already started because the price movement was strange this week
The issue for both Japan and the US is the accumulation of leveraged buy positions
If the stock price in front of us is an illusion created by a bubble
I’ve long advised against leveraging debt (margin trading) because both profits and losses can double in magnitude
It starts with a margin call, then progresses to throwing away profitable stocks to cover, but if the negative chain continues, prices keep falling until a margin cut (...)
Translated
10
79
1
The KEY is Margin Call & Margin Cut![]()
?
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$Gold Futures (APR6) (GCmain.US)$
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$Gold Futures (APR6) (GCmain.US)$
+12
2
28
1
Translated
2
21
From a frenzy market to a chaotic market![]()
Are tariffs constitutional or unconstitutional?
Is the unconstitutionality already priced in?![]()
(A phrase I completely don’t believe = 'priced in')
The market close after the ruling![]()
Is everything okay since America seems to be recovering?![]()
Japan’s futures are also doing something suspicious![]()
Are they aiming for another high opening?![]()
(Normally, it should drop here = Because we must consider the uncertainty after the unconstitutional ruling)
↓Alright, I'll impose a 10% tariff![]()
↓Actually, I'll make it 15%![]()
Considering the sharp drop in approval ratings![]()
It could be a repeat of what happened in April![]()
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures (JUN6) (NK225main.JP)$
$TOPIX Futures (JUN6) (TOPIXmain.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Additional tariffs by 'Tariff Man'A market overwhelmed by speculative moves rather than investment (this is speculation, not investment)![]()
What we need to be careful about![]()
When attention focuses on the dollar itself![]()
Why are funds fleeing to gold?![]()
This includes geopolitical risks![]()
It's about the value of a currency![]()
Irredeemable and redeemable currencies are basic concepts taught around middle school level in compulsory education![]()
I believe considering the original meaning will cause the market to become even more volatile![]()
(Containing the risk of spillover...
Are tariffs constitutional or unconstitutional?
Is the unconstitutionality already priced in?
The market close after the ruling
Japan’s futures are also doing something suspicious
↓Alright, I'll impose a 10% tariff
↓Actually, I'll make it 15%
Considering the sharp drop in approval ratings
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures (JUN6) (NK225main.JP)$
$TOPIX Futures (JUN6) (TOPIXmain.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Additional tariffs by 'Tariff Man'A market overwhelmed by speculative moves rather than investment (this is speculation, not investment)
What we need to be careful about
Why are funds fleeing to gold?
This includes geopolitical risks
Irredeemable and redeemable currencies are basic concepts taught around middle school level in compulsory education
Translated
+23
4
27
Iran announced it is ready to submit a draft proposal, with the deadline mentioned as either 15 days or 10 days—can't even determine the number of days. Should we wait for the madman TACO?![]()
(TACO seems to be asking for things not even required in negotiations).
The reality that someone who cannot make clear statements or judgments is president is more serious than an autopilot pen.![]()
A casino-like market ahead of weekends and holidays—no carryover positions are possible.![]()
They might be considering the possibility of unexpected terrorism, as there’s also a warning out to Japanese nationals in America…![]()
Market focus seems to be solely on whether the dollar-yen, stocks, or bonds will go up or down.![]()
In the event of an emergency situation where the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Japan would lose the ability to transport crude oil. If this is recognized as the scenario mentioned by 'Shika,' discussions could shift to potential SDF deployment, halting other deliberations.![]()
(It's predicted to begin around mine clearance)
Though it may be a leap, with the consumption tax cut being vague and high oil prices driving up inflation, if the war drags on and there’s a shortage of Self-Defense Forces personnel for dispatch, what will they do? Will they introduce conscription? The fact that someone who must consider even this is Japan's leader is itself a risk.![]()
The youth who chose such personnel are the first to be sent to the front lines...
The reality that someone who cannot make clear statements or judgments is president is more serious than an autopilot pen.
A casino-like market ahead of weekends and holidays—no carryover positions are possible.
They might be considering the possibility of unexpected terrorism, as there’s also a warning out to Japanese nationals in America…
Market focus seems to be solely on whether the dollar-yen, stocks, or bonds will go up or down.
In the event of an emergency situation where the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Japan would lose the ability to transport crude oil. If this is recognized as the scenario mentioned by 'Shika,' discussions could shift to potential SDF deployment, halting other deliberations.
Though it may be a leap, with the consumption tax cut being vague and high oil prices driving up inflation, if the war drags on and there’s a shortage of Self-Defense Forces personnel for dispatch, what will they do? Will they introduce conscription? The fact that someone who must consider even this is Japan's leader is itself a risk.
The youth who chose such personnel are the first to be sent to the front lines...
Translated
+8
5
14
Thanks to the internet society, it's a good time that makes sense now![]()
You’re wondering if factories will really be built?![]()
Even though election strategies won’t raise approval ratings![]()
Speculative buying fueled by government-backed casino-related Nikkei optimism![]()
Major companies posting losses?![]()
Synthetic diamonds seem to be an unprofitable business![]()
(Isn’t China at the top, raised by global outsourcing?)
They are writing something boring and discouraging![]()
Ever since I started trading stocks, I've developed a habit of trying to predict the market’s moves beforehand.![]()
(Since any investment is based on the premise of returns)
The scheme seems to secure financing through tariffs for a project that's unprofitable (at a level where domestic companies wouldn’t even consider it), so I’ll pass. The financing has already been paid to the company, so it can’t be returned—sorry about that!
I feel like I'm seeing a dark future ahead.![]()
A reduction in consumption tax leading to an annual revenue loss of 5 trillion yen![]()
They’re even using the IMF to spread concerns!![]()
There’s no way this could be an unprofitable investment, right?![]()
You don’t hear stories like 'the factory wasn’t even built' as a common occurrence in overseas investments, do you?![]()
We don’t need to worry about why domestic companies haven’t ventured into this until now!![]()
On a personal note,![]()
I’d rather avoid companies that invest in the challenging and declining national development projects.![]()
(とばっ...
You’re wondering if factories will really be built?
Even though election strategies won’t raise approval ratings
Speculative buying fueled by government-backed casino-related Nikkei optimism
Major companies posting losses?
Synthetic diamonds seem to be an unprofitable business
They are writing something boring and discouraging
The scheme seems to secure financing through tariffs for a project that's unprofitable (at a level where domestic companies wouldn’t even consider it), so I’ll pass. The financing has already been paid to the company, so it can’t be returned—sorry about that!
I feel like I'm seeing a dark future ahead.
A reduction in consumption tax leading to an annual revenue loss of 5 trillion yen
On a personal note,
Translated
+22
2
1
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![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,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)
Sheemy OP : The afternoon session is unpredictable![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Profit-taking