🧨 1. The rise of AMD is more about 'telling a story' rather than 'delivering results'.
1. Driven by AI themes, but the market share is still far behind NVIDIA.
The so-called "MI300X exploding H100" is mostly test data and bidding documents, rather than actual customer order volume.
The actual sales volume, cash flow, and penetration rate in the market are far from NVIDIA's GPU dominance.
Supermicro's success leans more towards "hope" rather than "fact."
🔻 Conclusion: The anticipated AI bubble is becoming larger and larger, but the ability to deliver is extremely insufficient, which will inevitably lead to a pullback.
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📉 2. The trend of AMD has reached the "enticing end stage".
Technical signals are clear:
The $140 area is the key "enticing accumulation zone."
The stock price is not rising, but the volume continues to expand, which is a typical sign of Block Orders pushing up to distribute.
Forming a 'descending wedge + false breakout' pattern:
Unable to launch an attack.
Each peak is lower than the previous round, forming a descending Trendline.
Both RSI and MACD indicate a top divergence, and the downward momentum is ready to be released.
> ✅ So you say "today is the last time seeing 140", the technical analysis supports this judgment: this is the day for selling at the top, not the "launch day".
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🧮 3. Fundamentals are overvalued, growth is weak.
1. Profitability is significantly lower than NVIDIA.
Even if the order volume for MI300 can increase, the overall gross margin and net margin...

The market won't reward your passion, it only obeys cold hard data.
— This is a saying that all retail investors must eventually understand.
When you treat Stocks as a belief and view the fluctuations as extensions of emotional ups and downs, you are bound to be slapped in the face by the market. Especially today, let's take AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) as an example to examine a stock price myth that has been spoiled by emotions and is about to be brought back to reality.
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🎭 1. Emotion is poison for retail investors, not a weapon.
In the world of retail investors, the three most common phrases are:
"I believe it will rise."
"This company is really impressive."
"It won't deceive me, will it?"
These words seem to convey belief and warmth, as if instead of investing, you are engaging in a relationship. However, the market won't drop by even one percentage point just because you 'believe' in it. On the contrary, your hesitation, luck, and self-sentimentality will make you part of the losses.
You are not an Analyst, but rather an emotional creature.
Seeing others make money prompts you to chase the rise.
Seeing Bullish news makes you fantasize about takeoff.
Being tormented by the stock price's repeated fluctuations, you are not making decisions, but rather gambling on luck.
✅ The market relies on killing emotions like yours to continue moving forward.
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💣 2. AMD is exactly a victim of "emotional fantasies."
Over the past year, AMD's stock price was driven to a peak by the AI craze, once nearing 150 dollars.