Today's market is very delicate.
The price of crude oil, crude oil, suddenly fell below the 20-day EMA, which means that the upward trend may come to an end.
Previously, I also repeatedly reminded myself that when energy prices restart their downward trend, it's time to look for an opportunity to hit the bottom of technology stocks. We can't talk about going up or down yet; there's only a certain probability that it will peak. Continued observation is required.
Looking at big tech stocks, I suddenly discovered that the stock prices are all very subtle:
$Apple(AAPL.US)$ ， $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ with $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ The prices were all accurately stopped at the upper edge of the previous exit. Just like an athlete standing neatly on the starting line, it seems as soon as a gun sounds, they have to start running. It's just that no one can predict which way to run.
$Amazon(AMZN.US)$ It stopped at the previous high before the earnings report. The gap was partially filled, and there was no closure.
$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Racing against the clock, they ran all the way from 300 to the southeast, and the meteor made their way to an important support level around 220. Hopefully, we can see a signal to stop the decline at that time.
Let's take a look at a few more rookies:
$Palantir(PLTR.US)$ ， $Unity Software(U.US)$ ， $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ They all felt about the same. I only held a small amount of these three stocks, but I also lost some. But I believe it can rise back...

Although it is now a bear market due to inflation, it is different from the previous two crashes: a tech bubble in 2000, and a financial and real estate bubble in 2008. However, currently, due to too much water flowing out of the minds of the US government and the Federal Reserve during the pandemic, serious bubbles have arisen in technology, finance, and real estate. If the worst were to happen: all bubbles had to burst to control inflation, then this crash would be equivalent to the combination of 2000 and 2008.
Let's take a look at how many years it took for each stock to come out of two crashes and reach new highs:
1. $Apple(AAPL.US)$ : 4 years, 1 year. It's definitely pretty fast in tech stocks, thanks to the iPhone.
2. $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ : 9 years. Since there was no record high in 2007, it only counts as the one in 2000.
3. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ , 14 years.
4. $Intel(INTC.US)$ It was 18 years. It was unbearable, so it was called A Dou.
At the beginning of this century, owning a computer and being able to access the Internet was definitely the dream of countless people. However, if the bubble blows too much, it will only be worse when it bursts. Compared to Apple's launch 📱, after the bubble bursts, these two companies are still basically doing what it was before the bubble burst, making it difficult for stock prices to return to a high point. It's shocking.
So, if the AI bubble blows too much, if $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ The stock price rose above 400...

As I mentioned before, I put out part of my money at the end of last year to set up a fixed investment package. Actually, I made three combinations:
1. The recession-resistant sectors of S&P include healthcare, the public sector, necessities, and the future growth directions I'm optimistic about, such as biotech IBB, clean energy ICLN, semiconductor SOXX, and small-cap stocks that grew faster during the recovery (Russell 2000), plus the stock market's $Berkshire Hathaway-B(BRK.B.US)$ Wait, we've rounded up an evenly distributed combination. The goal is to have a PK with S&P. The reason I didn't choose qqq is because qqq is basically just those few weights, so it's not interesting. I don't like the price of semiconductors, but I can still invest a little bit.
$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU.US)$ $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund(XLV.US)$ $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP.US)$ $iShares Biotechnology ETF(IBB.US)$ $iShares Global Clean Energy ETF(ICLN.US)$ $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$
...

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$
If it goes up, it's bullish; when it falls, it's bearish. If this is the case, then kindergarten kids can trade stocks
Currently, I'm still watching the bear market rebound, but this round of rebound is not over yet. Although it fell today, it is possible to challenge the high point again. I think QQQ can go back to the 310-320 range, and I will reduce my positions at that time.
I'm not optimistic about the Dow, but I will take the opportunity to bottom out high-quality value stocks.
TLT has taken a bit of a pullback recently, but I think it will be difficult to fall below the previous low (around 100). If it goes back to 100, I will increase my position. My previous positions were a bit heavy, so some of my positions went up and down a little bit, and Kokura Yui gave up and down, but TLT remained the same as my biggest position. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$
$Meta Platforms(META.US)$
$MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN(FNGU.US)$
I just wrote a bunch of stuff ready to be published, but the results haven't been saved
Too lazy to rewrite it, in a nutshell, just six words:
Always be ready to run away!
Junk stocks are flying all over the sky. It's really hot to see. Too lazy to read it, ship it out.