$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
Comparison with the past
Sequel: If it happened twice, it’ll happen a third time (tentative)
↑↑
Past Posts
The decline level previously predicted based on the advance-decline ratio was
around 54K–58K.
The actual result was 59K.
With a very generous assessment, it was nearly on the mark.![]()
Regarding the advance-decline ratio forecast assuming a replay of the previous bubble era,
this concludes the prediction for now.
In October 2022, there was also a modest (?) decline.
Another drop is likely coming,
If another drop occurs similarly,
it could be around the 50K–55K range.
→ A 60% decline from 126K brings it to 50K.
It probably won’t fall into the 40Ks
unless something truly significant happens.
The main focus will be the Clarity Act vote,
alongside developments in the Iran deal, interest rates, crude oil prices, and the trajectory of the AI & semiconductor boom (especially data center demand).
Although there are various concerns,
we expect the broader market to remain range-bound.
Staying on the sidelines for now.
And then... if it suddenly jumps above 100K...
I might get really down and probably cry.![]()
But... well, at least it’ll make a funny story later.
Ah well, maybe it’ll drop—whatever.![]()
Comparison with the past
Sequel: If it happened twice, it’ll happen a third time (tentative)
↑↑
Past Posts
The decline level previously predicted based on the advance-decline ratio was
around 54K–58K.
The actual result was 59K.
With a very generous assessment, it was nearly on the mark.
Regarding the advance-decline ratio forecast assuming a replay of the previous bubble era,
this concludes the prediction for now.
In October 2022, there was also a modest (?) decline.
Another drop is likely coming,
If another drop occurs similarly,
it could be around the 50K–55K range.
→ A 60% decline from 126K brings it to 50K.
It probably won’t fall into the 40Ks
unless something truly significant happens.
The main focus will be the Clarity Act vote,
alongside developments in the Iran deal, interest rates, crude oil prices, and the trajectory of the AI & semiconductor boom (especially data center demand).
Although there are various concerns,
we expect the broader market to remain range-bound.
Staying on the sidelines for now.
And then... if it suddenly jumps above 100K...
I might get really down and probably cry.
But... well, at least it’ll make a funny story later.
Ah well, maybe it’ll drop—whatever.
Translated
5
4
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
Compared to the post-bubble downtrend last time
If the current level corresponds to the yellow circle, it may trade in a range for a while
The blue circle might correspond to the midterm elections in October...
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."
I don’t intend to stoke fears of a crash, but I’d be happy if this serves as a helpful reference♪
Compared to the post-bubble downtrend last time
If the current level corresponds to the yellow circle, it may trade in a range for a while
The blue circle might correspond to the midterm elections in October...
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."
I don’t intend to stoke fears of a crash, but I’d be happy if this serves as a helpful reference♪
Translated
2
2
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined"){kind=small}
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
Sequel: If it happened twice, it’ll happen a third time (tentative)
↑↑↑
Previous post
A post from about two weeks ago...
even the person themselves thought it was almost fiction
but what they had thought
Is now seemingly becoming reality... (-_-;)
It was a simple calculation based on the percentage change
It’s somehow frightening.
The support levels I personally identified below 60K are
Around 57,500 and 53,500
Matches the prediction as well.
All I can do is hope this one doesn’t come true...
I say this every time, but...![]()
![]()
![]()
Sequel: If it happened twice, it’ll happen a third time (tentative)
↑↑↑
Previous post
A post from about two weeks ago...
even the person themselves thought it was almost fiction
but what they had thought
Is now seemingly becoming reality... (-_-;)
It was a simple calculation based on the percentage change
It’s somehow frightening.
The support levels I personally identified below 60K are
Around 57,500 and 53,500
Matches the prediction as well.
All I can do is hope this one doesn’t come true...
I say this every time, but...
Translated
2
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
- Preface -
These are strictly my personal opinions.
Please forgive me if my wording comes across as slightly strong.
Also, apologies in advance for the lengthy post.
- Main Text -
We often hear discussions about the value of cryptocurrencies,
with frequent disparaging remarks such as “They’re worthless!”, “Total garbage!”, and “A missed opportunity!”
It’s also common to see people speaking as if they represent the majority—claiming things like “The world!”, “Society!”, or “Investors!”
"Cryptocurrencies are worthless to the 'world'!"
That... on what basis, with whose support, and toward what purpose is this claim being made?
To arrive at that answer, first
let's replace "the world" with "me."
"Cryptocurrencies are worthless to me!"
Why are they "worthless"?
I think it might actually be this:
To me, cryptocurrencies are "worthless" because "they don't behave the way I want them to"...
If you truly believed they were completely worthless,
you'd respond with "indifference."
They wouldn't go so far as to actually file a lawsuit.
There must be a motive behind deliberately doing so.
Perhaps it's because that 'motive' is something they can't 'control'...
It doesn't rise or fall as expected.
I can't earn profits as I'd hoped...
- Preface -
These are strictly my personal opinions.
Please forgive me if my wording comes across as slightly strong.
Also, apologies in advance for the lengthy post.
- Main Text -
We often hear discussions about the value of cryptocurrencies,
with frequent disparaging remarks such as “They’re worthless!”, “Total garbage!”, and “A missed opportunity!”
It’s also common to see people speaking as if they represent the majority—claiming things like “The world!”, “Society!”, or “Investors!”
"Cryptocurrencies are worthless to the 'world'!"
That... on what basis, with whose support, and toward what purpose is this claim being made?
To arrive at that answer, first
let's replace "the world" with "me."
"Cryptocurrencies are worthless to me!"
Why are they "worthless"?
I think it might actually be this:
To me, cryptocurrencies are "worthless" because "they don't behave the way I want them to"...
If you truly believed they were completely worthless,
you'd respond with "indifference."
They wouldn't go so far as to actually file a lawsuit.
There must be a motive behind deliberately doing so.
Perhaps it's because that 'motive' is something they can't 'control'...
It doesn't rise or fall as expected.
I can't earn profits as I'd hoped...
Translated
53
12
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
Hypothesis: What happens twice will happen a third time.
↑↑↑
Re-examining a post I made long ago ♪
Recent high is around 83,000
Referencing the two crashes that occurred since last year
Assuming a decline of approximately 30–35%
That puts the result around 58,000–54,000
Compared to the all-time high of 126K, 54K is roughly 40%
This represents a drop of approximately 60%
This also aligns with the commonly cited notion that 55K is the bottom.
Then, when exactly is it going to happen?!
The painful part is that when asked this, I can't give a clear answer...
It’s a tough spot, but...
I’m keeping an eye on the price range for now,
and will continue staying cautious ♪
※This is purely personal opinion.![]()
Hypothesis: What happens twice will happen a third time.
↑↑↑
Re-examining a post I made long ago ♪
Recent high is around 83,000
Referencing the two crashes that occurred since last year
Assuming a decline of approximately 30–35%
That puts the result around 58,000–54,000
Compared to the all-time high of 126K, 54K is roughly 40%
This represents a drop of approximately 60%
This also aligns with the commonly cited notion that 55K is the bottom.
Then, when exactly is it going to happen?!
The painful part is that when asked this, I can't give a clear answer...
It’s a tough spot, but...
I’m keeping an eye on the price range for now,
and will continue staying cautious ♪
※This is purely personal opinion.
Translated
8
1
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
My personal hypothesis (mostly speculation).
Based on the price range from the recent two highs to lows,
The next drop rate is calculated.
※ The numbers are rough, so please bear with me.
The lines on the chart don't draw cleanly.![]()
October 2025 ~
126000→80000
(46,000 down 36%)
January 2026 ~
98000→60000
(38,000 down 39%)
By ◯ month 2026
76000→45500〜49500
(30,500 to 26,500 down 65~60%)
*In the short term, I’m cautious about May
Considering the entry of ETFs and treasury companies,
and factoring in environmental changes from past market crashes,
I've set slightly more lenient targets,
If we assume a drop of 61.8% from the all-time high of 126,000 based on Fibonacci retracement,
it comes to around 48,000, which I believe is not an impossible figure.
However, I don’t actually want it to fall this far
So that I can be prepared in advance just in case,
Please understand, it's just a precaution to avoid any misunderstanding.![]()
Anyway, for now, with regard to altcoins,
I am exercising the utmost caution in handling them.
That’s the current situation.
Veterans might see this as mere amateur speculation,
But I’d appreciate it if you could take it lightly.![]()
My personal hypothesis (mostly speculation).
Based on the price range from the recent two highs to lows,
The next drop rate is calculated.
※ The numbers are rough, so please bear with me.
The lines on the chart don't draw cleanly.
October 2025 ~
126000→80000
(46,000 down 36%)
January 2026 ~
98000→60000
(38,000 down 39%)
By ◯ month 2026
76000→45500〜49500
(30,500 to 26,500 down 65~60%)
*In the short term, I’m cautious about May
Considering the entry of ETFs and treasury companies,
and factoring in environmental changes from past market crashes,
I've set slightly more lenient targets,
If we assume a drop of 61.8% from the all-time high of 126,000 based on Fibonacci retracement,
it comes to around 48,000, which I believe is not an impossible figure.
However, I don’t actually want it to fall this far
So that I can be prepared in advance just in case,
Please understand, it's just a precaution to avoid any misunderstanding.
Anyway, for now, with regard to altcoins,
I am exercising the utmost caution in handling them.
That’s the current situation.
Veterans might see this as mere amateur speculation,
But I’d appreciate it if you could take it lightly.
Translated
6
5
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,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)
MasaROM_R≧G OP ☆KGA☆ : Same here!
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Looks like a big jump over 100,000 will have to wait for now.
I think it’ll probably hover between 60,000 and 80,000 for a while.
It feels like we should just stay calm~~ and take it easy.