masa5858
commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Based on the daily and weekly charts of the original index, if there is a further decline next week, it may signal the start of a downward trend. It depends on Santa.
Translated
3
2
masa5858
commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
Mr. Norizou suffers a major blow.
Mr. Norizou suffers a major blow.
Translated
2
1
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined"){kind=small}
masa5858
liked
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ This time, it has dropped a bit too much, but... you should just buy more and hold onto it.
By the way, I'm planning to take profits at 50. 🚀w
By the way, I'm planning to take profits at 50. 🚀w
Translated
8
3
masa5858
commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
I lost 1.5 million in a single day.
Let me make money easily, dammit! 😡
I lost 1.5 million in a single day.
Let me make money easily, dammit! 😡
Translated
11
2
), similar to the recent criticism over TPU profit margins, it will not be possible to maintain such high gross profit margins for expensive GPUs.
masa5858
commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Let us attempt to forecast the stock price.
Based on past trends, the day following a sharp decline of 12-20% or more typically sees a rebound of 3-5%. Considering next week’s economic indicators, we expect an easy recovery to the range of 45-49.
If the economic indicators are unfavorable, after stabilizing around 32-35, we may see a return to near 50 by the year-end and New Year period.
Regarding Micron, we predict that the market has already priced it in. This time, Broadcom, TSMC, and other semiconductor stocks experienced a rapid rise before their earnings reports, followed by a steep drop post-announcement.
Based on past trends, the day following a sharp decline of 12-20% or more typically sees a rebound of 3-5%. Considering next week’s economic indicators, we expect an easy recovery to the range of 45-49.
If the economic indicators are unfavorable, after stabilizing around 32-35, we may see a return to near 50 by the year-end and New Year period.
Regarding Micron, we predict that the market has already priced it in. This time, Broadcom, TSMC, and other semiconductor stocks experienced a rapid rise before their earnings reports, followed by a steep drop post-announcement.
Translated
14
2
masa5858
reacted to
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Is it okay to attribute the largest decline in the second half to Oracle and Broadcom?
Translated
6
masa5858
commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
Conclusion: The formation of a price dip due to the Oracle shock took precedence over economic indicators.
◆JST22:30 Unemployment Insurance Claims This Week 236K Forecast 220K Previous 192K
A weak labor market is a factor for lower interest rates, which typically benefits SOXL. However, due to the small difference, it may be considered noise, and the stock price is likely to recover quickly.
◆JST22:30 Continuing unemployment insurance claims this time 1,838K, forecast 1,950K, previous 1,937K.
A strong labor market is a factor for higher interest rates, which typically negatively impacts SOXL. However, the effect is offset by the number of new applications, resulting in no significant impact on the stock price.
※Yesterday, concerns over excessive AI investment resurfaced following Oracle’s earnings in the broader technology sector, leading to a decline → Since it was not a direct hit on SOXL, I view this as a dip. It was quite deep, though.
※Today, a guidance shock from AVGO, which directly impacts SOXL, caused a decline. However, since the earnings results themselves were not bad, there might be some delayed buying back.
≪My Actions≫
Last night, due to feeling unwell, I did not engage in any trading within the SOXL satellite allocation and weathered the storm of price dips with a full long position.
Outlook: Based on the aforementioned reasons ※, this is viewed as a pullback formation for a subsequent upward move – strictly personal musings.![]()
...
Conclusion: The formation of a price dip due to the Oracle shock took precedence over economic indicators.
◆JST22:30 Unemployment Insurance Claims This Week 236K Forecast 220K Previous 192K
A weak labor market is a factor for lower interest rates, which typically benefits SOXL. However, due to the small difference, it may be considered noise, and the stock price is likely to recover quickly.
◆JST22:30 Continuing unemployment insurance claims this time 1,838K, forecast 1,950K, previous 1,937K.
A strong labor market is a factor for higher interest rates, which typically negatively impacts SOXL. However, the effect is offset by the number of new applications, resulting in no significant impact on the stock price.
※Yesterday, concerns over excessive AI investment resurfaced following Oracle’s earnings in the broader technology sector, leading to a decline → Since it was not a direct hit on SOXL, I view this as a dip. It was quite deep, though.
※Today, a guidance shock from AVGO, which directly impacts SOXL, caused a decline. However, since the earnings results themselves were not bad, there might be some delayed buying back.
≪My Actions≫
Last night, due to feeling unwell, I did not engage in any trading within the SOXL satellite allocation and weathered the storm of price dips with a full long position.
Outlook: Based on the aforementioned reasons ※, this is viewed as a pullback formation for a subsequent upward move – strictly personal musings.
...
Translated
15
9
masa5858
commented on
This FOMC decision to cut rates by 0.25% was as expected. However, the key point is that 'the rate-cutting cycle has entered its final phase.'
●Powell: 'We have reached the vicinity of the neutral interest rate'
→ Rate cuts from this point are more likely to stimulate the economy, carrying a risk of reigniting inflation. Therefore, future rate cuts will be extremely cautious.
●Inflation
・PCE 2.8%
・Goods = Upside due to tariff factors
・Services = Sticky and resistant to decline
→ The battle is not over yet.
● Employment
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, showing signs of softening.
→ A structure that prevents rushing into rate cuts by focusing solely on inflation.
● Internal Division
Three members cast opposing votes (both doves and hawks).
→ The conflict within the FRB has become apparent, with the post-Powell era in 2026 posing a medium-term risk.
● Market Impact
USD/JPY: Prices remain elevated in the range of 155 to 160 yen as a baseline.
US Equities: Supported by EPS growth in AI and semiconductors, but valuations are relatively high.
US Interest Rates: The 10-year yield shows limited directionality in the range of 3.8% to 4.3%.
Overall, the market has shifted to one that cannot be explained by interest rates alone. Politics, trade, and AI investments are starting to drive the market.
A detailed report on the FOMC has been posted.Click here.
●Powell: 'We have reached the vicinity of the neutral interest rate'
→ Rate cuts from this point are more likely to stimulate the economy, carrying a risk of reigniting inflation. Therefore, future rate cuts will be extremely cautious.
●Inflation
・PCE 2.8%
・Goods = Upside due to tariff factors
・Services = Sticky and resistant to decline
→ The battle is not over yet.
● Employment
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, showing signs of softening.
→ A structure that prevents rushing into rate cuts by focusing solely on inflation.
● Internal Division
Three members cast opposing votes (both doves and hawks).
→ The conflict within the FRB has become apparent, with the post-Powell era in 2026 posing a medium-term risk.
● Market Impact
USD/JPY: Prices remain elevated in the range of 155 to 160 yen as a baseline.
US Equities: Supported by EPS growth in AI and semiconductors, but valuations are relatively high.
US Interest Rates: The 10-year yield shows limited directionality in the range of 3.8% to 4.3%.
Overall, the market has shifted to one that cannot be explained by interest rates alone. Politics, trade, and AI investments are starting to drive the market.
A detailed report on the FOMC has been posted.Click here.
Translated
5
1
masa5858
reacted to and commented on
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Yes, the total loss exceeded 4 million yen overnight.![]()
There is nothing left to do but laugh.![]()
I feel like I've fallen into a cesspool trap.![]()
Translated
10
19
masa5858
reacted to
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$Is Christmas not coming...?
Translated
3
2
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMjYiIGhlaWdodD0iMjYiIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAyNiAyNiIgZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgeG1sbnM9Imh0dHA6Ly93d3cudzMub3JnLzIwMDAvc3ZnIj4KPHBhdGggZmlsbC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIiBjbGlwLXJ1bGU9ImV2ZW5vZGQiIGQ9Ik0xMi45OTk5IDAuMzI1NDM5QzYuMDQxMTEgMC4zMjU0MzkgMC4zOTk5MDIgNS45NjY2NSAwLjM5OTkwMiAxMi45MjU0QzAuMzk5OTAyIDE5Ljg4NDIgNi4wNDExMSAyNS41MjU0IDEyLjk5OTkgMjUuNTI1NFYyMi43MjU0QzcuNTg3NTEgMjIuNzI1NCAzLjE5OTkgMTguMzM3OCAzLjE5OTkgMTIuOTI1NEMzLjE5OTkgNy41MTMwNSA3LjU4NzUxIDMuMTI1NDQgMTIuOTk5OSAzLjEyNTQ0VjAuMzI1NDM5WiIgZmlsbD0idXJsKCNwYWludDBfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NikiLz4KPHBhdGggZmlsbC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIiBjbGlwLXJ1bGU9ImV2ZW5vZGQiIGQ9Ik0xMyAyNS41MjU0QzE5Ljk1ODggMjUuNTI1NCAyNS42IDE5Ljg4NDIgMjUuNiAxMi45MjU0QzI1LjYgNS45NjY2NSAxOS45NTg4IDAuMzI1NDQgMTMgMC4zMjU0MzlWMy4xMjU0NEMxOC40MTI0IDMuMTI1NDQgMjIuOCA3LjUxMzA1IDIyLjggMTIuOTI1NEMyMi44IDE4LjMzNzggMTguNDEyNCAyMi43MjU0IDEzIDIyLjcyNTRWMjUuNTI1NFoiIGZpbGw9InVybCgjcGFpbnQxX2xpbmVhcl8yMjAwXzQ4NjYpIi8+CjxjaXJjbGUgY3g9IjEzLjAwMDEiIGN5PSIyNC4xMjUzIiByPSIxLjQiIGZpbGw9InVybCgjcGFpbnQyX2xpbmVhcl8yMjAwXzQ4NjYpIi8+CjxkZWZzPgo8bGluZWFyR3JhZGllbnQgaWQ9InBhaW50MF9saW5lYXJfMjIwMF80ODY2IiB4MT0iNy4zOTk5IiB5MT0iMjUuNTI1NCIgeDI9IjcuMzk5OSIgeTI9IjIuNDI1NDQiIGdyYWRpZW50VW5pdHM9InVzZXJTcGFjZU9uVXNlIj4KPHN0b3Agc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwIi8+CjxzdG9wIG9mZnNldD0iMSIgc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwLjUiLz4KPC9saW5lYXJHcmFkaWVudD4KPGxpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50IGlkPSJwYWludDFfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NiIgeDE9IjIwIiB5MT0iMjUuNTI1NCIgeDI9IjIwIiB5Mj0iMi40MjU0NCIgZ3JhZGllbnRVbml0cz0idXNlclNwYWNlT25Vc2UiPgo8c3RvcCBzdG9wLWNvbG9yPSIjN0E3QTdBIi8+CjxzdG9wIG9mZnNldD0iMSIgc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwLjUiLz4KPC9saW5lYXJHcmFkaWVudD4KPGxpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50IGlkPSJwYWludDJfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NiIgeDE9IjEzLjAwMDEiIHkxPSIyNC4xMjUzIiB4Mj0iMTQuNDAwMSIgeTI9IjI0LjEyNTMiIGdyYWRpZW50VW5pdHM9InVzZXJTcGFjZU9uVXNlIj4KPHN0b3Agc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIvPgo8c3RvcCBvZmZzZXQ9IjEiIHN0b3AtY29sb3I9IiM3QTdBN0EiIHN0b3Atb3BhY2l0eT0iMCIvPgo8L2xpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50Pgo8L2RlZnM+Cjwvc3ZnPgo=)
masa5858 : Given that the consecutive阴lines in the daily and weekly charts of the SOX index occurred when rate cuts were not yet clear, and now with actual rate cuts taking place, opposition votes from figures like Jefferson are absent, US GDP is rising, and Hashette’s influence is looming, I believe the upward trend remains intact for SOXL and decided to purchase.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")