Just ran through the options bootcamp quiz and scored 9/10. Not too shabby, but I totally overthought a tricky question about earnings season volatility.
Honestly, that specific question just reinforced why I mostly stick to trading SPY and QQQ these days. The quiz touched on how option premiums inflate before earnings, and man, getting caught in an IV crush on a single stock is the worst feeling. You can get the direction 100% right and still lose...
Honestly, that specific question just reinforced why I mostly stick to trading SPY and QQQ these days. The quiz touched on how option premiums inflate before earnings, and man, getting caught in an IV crush on a single stock is the worst feeling. You can get the direction 100% right and still lose...
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Lucas_99
voted
Let’s talk about last week’s whiplash. We went from panic-selling on war escalation fears to panic-buying on ceasefire hopes in a matter of days. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ both managed to log solid ~4% gains, but don't let the green screens fool you. The underlying structure says we aren't out of the woods yet.
That bounce was sharp, but right now, the indices are running head-first into a massive brick wall.
...
That bounce was sharp, but right now, the indices are running head-first into a massive brick wall.
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Lucas_99
voted
The narrative has flipped. Inflation is sticky, Fed officials are walking back rate cuts, and the "cheap money" catalyst is gone. If you're holding long-dated naked calls expecting a macro bailout, you're going to bleed out to theta decay.
Time for a reality check on the market right now.
For $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ , tech valuations have been leaning heavily on dropping yields. With rates staying higher for longer, those massive P/E multip...
Time for a reality check on the market right now.
For $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ , tech valuations have been leaning heavily on dropping yields. With rates staying higher for longer, those massive P/E multip...
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Everyone and their mother is loading up on $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ puts right now. You’ve seen the flow—376k contracts traded on the March 16 $601 strike. People are betting on a "Warsh Shock" and a hawkish Fed to send us into a death spiral.
But here’s why the bears are actually exit liquidity for the market makers.
We are sitting in a massive Negative Gamma environment ($6.4B GEX). When the market is this short g...
But here’s why the bears are actually exit liquidity for the market makers.
We are sitting in a massive Negative Gamma environment ($6.4B GEX). When the market is this short g...
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Lucas_99
voted
The easy money in mega-cap tech has already been made. If you are still blindly slapping the ask on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ calls, praying for another AI miracle to bail you out, you are officially becoming exit liquidity for the institutions.
The market narrative is shifting under the surface. The smart money is quietly rotating their capital out of overcrowded tech names and funnel...
The market narrative is shifting under the surface. The smart money is quietly rotating their capital out of overcrowded tech names and funnel...
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Rough morning. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ futures are taking a 1% hit, and the headlines out of Iran just keep coming. It’s hard to find a clean trend when the Strait of Hormuz traffic is down 70%, which is probably why $Gold (LIST2110.US)$ is casually sitting above $5400 right now.
Tech is looking pretty weak across the board. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ is down 2.45% pre-market, and bo...
Tech is looking pretty weak across the board. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ is down 2.45% pre-market, and bo...
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Lucas_99
commented on and voted
I am still learning the ropes, but I finally figured out how to trade expensive stocks like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ without emptying my entire account. Buying a single naked Call can cost over $1,000, which is terrifying for a small account like mine. That is when I discovered Vertical Spreads.
By buying one Call and simultaneously selling another at a higher strike, I create a "Bull Call Spread." The premium I collect from the sold Call helps pay for t...
By buying one Call and simultaneously selling another at a higher strike, I create a "Bull Call Spread." The premium I collect from the sold Call helps pay for t...
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Lucas_99
liked
The biggest challenge in trend trading isn't finding a trend; it's surviving the noise. For my daily $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ strategy, the 200-day Moving Average (MA200) is my ultimate filter. It is the "line in the sand" that separates a healthy bull market from a dangerous environment.
The Simple Logic:
Price Above MA200: The long-term tide is rising. This is where I stay active and look for trend-fol...
The Simple Logic:
Price Above MA200: The long-term tide is rising. This is where I stay active and look for trend-fol...
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Lucas_99
liked
How you enter a trade is just as important as the trend you follow. The constant debate is whether to dump all your capital at once or spread it out over time. Here is a no-drama breakdown of the three main approaches.
1. Lump Sum: Riding the Upward TrendIf the trend is clearly upward, Lump Sum is statistically the winner. Markets spend more time rising than falling, so putting all your capital to work on Day 1 maximizes your "time in the m...
1. Lump Sum: Riding the Upward TrendIf the trend is clearly upward, Lump Sum is statistically the winner. Markets spend more time rising than falling, so putting all your capital to work on Day 1 maximizes your "time in the m...
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i used to just blindly buy whatever ticker was trending, but now I’m actually looking at the charts. everyone asks me: should I buy $ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$or $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ ?
i pulled the 10-year trend data on Moomoo and the answer isn't just "tech always wins."
The Slope: QQQ has a way steeper trend over the last decade. If you can handle the swings, it’s the clear winner for aggressive growth.
The Volatility: But man, QQ...
i pulled the 10-year trend data on Moomoo and the answer isn't just "tech always wins."
The Slope: QQQ has a way steeper trend over the last decade. If you can handle the swings, it’s the clear winner for aggressive growth.
The Volatility: But man, QQ...
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