Bitcoin Strategy
For Bitcoin (BTC) and related stocks such as MSTR and Metaplanet, how would Thursday’s economic indicators—retail sales and initial jobless claims—**turn out positively (i.e., drive prices higher)**?
We’ll break down the specific mechanism and bullish scenarios into two distinct patterns.
Scenario A: A 'moderately strong' U.S. economy (soft landing path)
The ideal scenario for Bitcoin is when the U.S. economy is neither too strong nor too weak—specifically, **inflation is cooling down while consumer spending and employment remain solid**.
What needs to happen on Thursday for this scenario to materialize?
Retail Sales: Come in slightly above or in line with market expectations, confirming resilient consumer spending.
Initial Jobless Claims: Remain stable without a sharp increase, alleviating fears of a labor market collapse.
Why is Bitcoin rising?
1. Alleviation of 'stagflation concerns'
What the market fears most right now is 'stagflation'—a scenario where the economy weakens while prices remain high. Thursday’s data showed that 'the economy remains solid (on track for a soft landing...'