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Columns First book completed
Since theoretical books take time, I’ve decided to start with 'casual reading material for forming beliefs.'
The first book will be a publication full of black humor, titled 'Welcome to the Casino Called Investing.'
I think this one has turned out quite well, even by my standards.
However, as I was writing it, I realized that when I write, the books tend to be rather subdued.
Fundamentally, winning in the markets is often just a byproduct of not losing.
If the overall market is good, anyone who can hold strong stocks for a certain period and take profits before a collapse can succeed.
So, the way to win doesn't really matter that much. But I think readers want it, so I'm thinking of writing a step-by-step guide anyway.
If we break it down,
In the early stage of a bull market, this time it was AI. The flow that started with NVDA just needed to be captured at each step—just that. (Avoiding the 'Reiwa Black Monday,' the 'Trump Completion,' and the trend around late September to November would have been ideal).
It's tough to make money now. Rotate while watching the flow of funds. I’m debating whether or not to introduce this method.
So, before connecting, some people may not even have an image of what’s happening in the market.
Things like war metaphors, as much as possible, tie them back to the narrative framework in your mind...
The first book will be a publication full of black humor, titled 'Welcome to the Casino Called Investing.'
I think this one has turned out quite well, even by my standards.
However, as I was writing it, I realized that when I write, the books tend to be rather subdued.
Fundamentally, winning in the markets is often just a byproduct of not losing.
If the overall market is good, anyone who can hold strong stocks for a certain period and take profits before a collapse can succeed.
So, the way to win doesn't really matter that much. But I think readers want it, so I'm thinking of writing a step-by-step guide anyway.
If we break it down,
In the early stage of a bull market, this time it was AI. The flow that started with NVDA just needed to be captured at each step—just that. (Avoiding the 'Reiwa Black Monday,' the 'Trump Completion,' and the trend around late September to November would have been ideal).
It's tough to make money now. Rotate while watching the flow of funds. I’m debating whether or not to introduce this method.
So, before connecting, some people may not even have an image of what’s happening in the market.
Things like war metaphors, as much as possible, tie them back to the narrative framework in your mind...
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$Credo Technology (CRDO.US)$
you're going to die.
you're going to die.
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Columns Yesterday,
After plummeting as if to say 'Is the war starting?', I was just watching with sleepy eyes as it made a V-shaped recovery, like an unmanned drone had been shot down.
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
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Columns Try re-reading O'Neil
Sure enough, no matter how many times I read it, there’s always something new to learn.
Almost everything that happens in the market is already written about in it.
If you keep repeating the same mistakes despite this, it's due to ignorance or lack of education.
①Key Principle: EPS >>> Sales
During the pandemic, there was a period when the evaluation criteria shifted to Story > Sales > EPS.
After that, I interpreted it as a shift in preference from 'profit' to 'rapid revenue growth,' and that was my mindset until the second half of last year.
However, looking at the results, business models like DC, which have dug huge deficits and focused entirely on sales growth, have slowed down and have yet to regain their highs. On the other hand, companies achieving EPS growth, such as those in memory/storage, did not slow down. They participated in the overall market correction for a while, but then quickly regained their highs and performed the best.
I came to understand once again that EPS is Wall Street's most trusted evaluation metric.
By the way, Wall Street only looks about three months ahead, so they rarely evaluate things like monopolistic advantages or macro structural changes until they see the earnings figures. After these figures are reflected, many people start buying upon confirmation. Well, no matter how elite they are, salarymen living within organizational evaluations tend to behave this way.
Almost everything that happens in the market is already written about in it.
If you keep repeating the same mistakes despite this, it's due to ignorance or lack of education.
①Key Principle: EPS >>> Sales
During the pandemic, there was a period when the evaluation criteria shifted to Story > Sales > EPS.
After that, I interpreted it as a shift in preference from 'profit' to 'rapid revenue growth,' and that was my mindset until the second half of last year.
However, looking at the results, business models like DC, which have dug huge deficits and focused entirely on sales growth, have slowed down and have yet to regain their highs. On the other hand, companies achieving EPS growth, such as those in memory/storage, did not slow down. They participated in the overall market correction for a while, but then quickly regained their highs and performed the best.
I came to understand once again that EPS is Wall Street's most trusted evaluation metric.
By the way, Wall Street only looks about three months ahead, so they rarely evaluate things like monopolistic advantages or macro structural changes until they see the earnings figures. After these figures are reflected, many people start buying upon confirmation. Well, no matter how elite they are, salarymen living within organizational evaluations tend to behave this way.
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Another absolute condition for buying a stockis that it must be breaking out from a correctly formed base or consolidation pattern.
Furthermore,Always buy at the pivot point (the right buy price)and never forget this.
Note: The term 'pivot' here literally translates as 'turning point,' but likely refers to a breakout above a consolidation area.
From my perspective on language usage, I tend to use 'pivot' (or turning point) when referring to negating a downtrend or an uptrend, so this is an unusual application of the term.
As mentioned before,you should avoid stocks that have risen 5–10% from their initial buy point.
If you adhere to this principle, you won't end up chasing stocks that have sharply risen in price, and even if a sudden market crash occurs, the likelihood of being shaken out will be lower.
※Even someone like O'Neil, who studied century-defining growth stocks, would avoid buying if they miss the optimal 5-10% entry window. In reality, it’s possible for a missed stock to rise by 160%. However, buying when volatility expands and deviation ratios are high means you can't set a stop-loss, resulting in trades with uncontrolled risk. At that point, the balance between risk and reward...
Furthermore,Always buy at the pivot point (the right buy price)and never forget this.
Note: The term 'pivot' here literally translates as 'turning point,' but likely refers to a breakout above a consolidation area.
From my perspective on language usage, I tend to use 'pivot' (or turning point) when referring to negating a downtrend or an uptrend, so this is an unusual application of the term.
As mentioned before,you should avoid stocks that have risen 5–10% from their initial buy point.
If you adhere to this principle, you won't end up chasing stocks that have sharply risen in price, and even if a sudden market crash occurs, the likelihood of being shaken out will be lower.
※Even someone like O'Neil, who studied century-defining growth stocks, would avoid buying if they miss the optimal 5-10% entry window. In reality, it’s possible for a missed stock to rise by 160%. However, buying when volatility expands and deviation ratios are high means you can't set a stop-loss, resulting in trades with uncontrolled risk. At that point, the balance between risk and reward...
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Columns This week's price movement
Risk aversion begins amid Trump's tariff threats.
(Mon/Tue) Concentrated buying in storage/resources/gold and silver as investors search for stocks worth holding. Amidst a majority of sold-off stocks, there is one-sided concentration.
(Wed) Right side of the V-shape on TACO.
(Thu) Reversal of weak stocks.
It was notable to see mean reversion movements in previously weak individual stocks, such as Arm and DDOG.
This is
✅Buy and if it drops below the lowest price, exit (-5% or so).
✅Take profit at 50% retracement from the highest price = Ideal scenario.
✅Taking partial profits (15-20%) in the initial momentum (3-5 days) adds stability = A countermeasure for sluggish scenarios.
So, the risk-reward ratio is quite good.
Generally, it's better not to buy stocks at low price ranges unless they're recent IPOs or fundamentally strong companies temporarily down due to external factors. However, algorithm-driven trends like this might not be short-lived. Since the risk is low, it could be worth following.
However, don't expect a new high or an uptrend to emerge after updating yearly highs. Weak stocks remain weak. Holding stocks without significant changes won't yield much benefit. A short-term approach is fine.
If I can capture about half of the move back to the previous high, that would be great. I'll follow with some leftover capital.
(Today, the trend in price movements at the beginning of the week...)
(Mon/Tue) Concentrated buying in storage/resources/gold and silver as investors search for stocks worth holding. Amidst a majority of sold-off stocks, there is one-sided concentration.
(Wed) Right side of the V-shape on TACO.
(Thu) Reversal of weak stocks.
It was notable to see mean reversion movements in previously weak individual stocks, such as Arm and DDOG.
This is
✅Buy and if it drops below the lowest price, exit (-5% or so).
✅Take profit at 50% retracement from the highest price = Ideal scenario.
✅Taking partial profits (15-20%) in the initial momentum (3-5 days) adds stability = A countermeasure for sluggish scenarios.
So, the risk-reward ratio is quite good.
Generally, it's better not to buy stocks at low price ranges unless they're recent IPOs or fundamentally strong companies temporarily down due to external factors. However, algorithm-driven trends like this might not be short-lived. Since the risk is low, it could be worth following.
However, don't expect a new high or an uptrend to emerge after updating yearly highs. Weak stocks remain weak. Holding stocks without significant changes won't yield much benefit. A short-term approach is fine.
If I can capture about half of the move back to the previous high, that would be great. I'll follow with some leftover capital.
(Today, the trend in price movements at the beginning of the week...)
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$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$
Looking at FIGR's rise, SOFI might be in a tough spot.
This year feels like the year for real-world blockchain implementation, and regardless of whether it takes root or not, speculative trading has been active.
In terms of narrative, SOFI was seen as fintech, but if more tech-focused players perform well, SOFI might lose its appeal and turn into just another banking service with enhanced digital touchpoints, making its story less exciting.
Valuations for this kind of growth stock can decline significantly when their story changes.
The recent streak of sell ratings from analysts is understandable.
Please be careful.
Looking at FIGR's rise, SOFI might be in a tough spot.
This year feels like the year for real-world blockchain implementation, and regardless of whether it takes root or not, speculative trading has been active.
In terms of narrative, SOFI was seen as fintech, but if more tech-focused players perform well, SOFI might lose its appeal and turn into just another banking service with enhanced digital touchpoints, making its story less exciting.
Valuations for this kind of growth stock can decline significantly when their story changes.
The recent streak of sell ratings from analysts is understandable.
Please be careful.
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$Figma Inc (FIG.US)$
Chasing stocks that are relatively weak compared to the index is pointless since no one is accumulating buys; it will only lead to a cascade of stop-loss selling.
Chasing stocks that are relatively weak compared to the index is pointless since no one is accumulating buys; it will only lead to a cascade of stop-loss selling.
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Columns From Hawaii
We successfully rebounded from the end of the year, so it's a good start.
The people of Hawaii are bright, full of love, kind, and their warmth soothes the heart.
Last year, I was putting out content that I believed was valuable with high energy, but there were also complaints and some really foolish abusive comments.
I recommend that those who tend to act that way should visit Hawaii once.
Aloha represents love, compassion, and gratitude.
Pono stands for balance and harmony.
Everyone in Hawaii lives with Aloha and Pono spirits; they radiate positive energy and live happily.
In Japan, if you can’t keep yourself in a good mood, it might be difficult to feel happiness.
In Hawaii, just walking around the streets can make you feel happy.
This morning, I went for a barefoot walk on the beach and it felt wonderful.
The people of Hawaii are bright, full of love, kind, and their warmth soothes the heart.
Last year, I was putting out content that I believed was valuable with high energy, but there were also complaints and some really foolish abusive comments.
I recommend that those who tend to act that way should visit Hawaii once.
Aloha represents love, compassion, and gratitude.
Pono stands for balance and harmony.
Everyone in Hawaii lives with Aloha and Pono spirits; they radiate positive energy and live happily.
In Japan, if you can’t keep yourself in a good mood, it might be difficult to feel happiness.
In Hawaii, just walking around the streets can make you feel happy.
This morning, I went for a barefoot walk on the beach and it felt wonderful.
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