$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ A technical pullback is about to occur
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Jack 牛牛
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Quick overview of this week's market opportunities! Is the broader market about to start a pullback?
Weekly macro analysis column: Friends who like it, please follow![]()
Tracking updates on US-Iran news
Tensions between the US and Iran continue. After Iran proposed a three-phase negotiation plan, Trump explicitly rejected it.On Tuesday, the US announced that its offensive military action against Iran had concluded, with the current focus shifting to ensuring safe passage through this crucial waterway.However, 66 days after the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, a cargo ship once again became a target after being attacked repeatedly. (Actions without Congressional approval are limited to 60 days, which means the clock resets and Phase 2.0 could last another 60 days.)This week also saw Iran launching attacks on the UAE, with the conflict between Iran and the UAE continuing to escalate.
Key events to watch now include Volker's rise to power and Trump's visit to China. After Trump's visit to China concludes, he may lift restraints and resume unpredictable actions. Additionally, Volker’s policy direction will likely prioritize quantitative tightening before rate cuts. Thus, Trump’s unpredictability combined with potential liquidity tightening could introduce bearish factors for the market by the end of this month.
Brazil's crude oil exports to China surge, becoming a stable supply source
Brazil's crude oil exports to China increased 2.2 times, while exports to the US tripled.
The UAE exits OPEC, escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia
Due to longstanding grievances with Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the war with Iran, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC. The UAE is pursuing an independent foreign policy and energy strategy, and plans to form a new regional alliance with Israel and India.
Japan's imports of chemical products from China...
Tracking updates on US-Iran news
Tensions between the US and Iran continue. After Iran proposed a three-phase negotiation plan, Trump explicitly rejected it.On Tuesday, the US announced that its offensive military action against Iran had concluded, with the current focus shifting to ensuring safe passage through this crucial waterway.However, 66 days after the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, a cargo ship once again became a target after being attacked repeatedly. (Actions without Congressional approval are limited to 60 days, which means the clock resets and Phase 2.0 could last another 60 days.)This week also saw Iran launching attacks on the UAE, with the conflict between Iran and the UAE continuing to escalate.
Key events to watch now include Volker's rise to power and Trump's visit to China. After Trump's visit to China concludes, he may lift restraints and resume unpredictable actions. Additionally, Volker’s policy direction will likely prioritize quantitative tightening before rate cuts. Thus, Trump’s unpredictability combined with potential liquidity tightening could introduce bearish factors for the market by the end of this month.
Brazil's crude oil exports to China surge, becoming a stable supply source
Brazil's crude oil exports to China increased 2.2 times, while exports to the US tripled.
The UAE exits OPEC, escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia
Due to longstanding grievances with Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the war with Iran, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC. The UAE is pursuing an independent foreign policy and energy strategy, and plans to form a new regional alliance with Israel and India.
Japan's imports of chemical products from China...
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Jack 牛牛
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🔴 Hot Topic 1: US-Iran firing in the Strait of Hormuz — 'NACHO trade' takes shape, ceasefire becomes a nominal concept ★★★★★
▸ Core Logic: The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, trapping 1,500 vessels and effectively blocking approximately 20% of global oil transportation routes. The most counterintuitive signal here is:USO plunged 3.80% pre-market but quickly rebounded to hit a new intraday high, only to fall again after-hours— fully enacting a three-act drama of 'optimism for a ceasefire → Trump's statement providing support → market skepticism resurfacing,' with single-day volatility exceeding 500 basis points. More concerning is thatXLE weakened unilaterally throughout the session, diverging from the mid-session rebound in oil prices— while the market was pricing in 'supply constraints,' it had already begun to price in 'war destroying global demand' (Whirlpool mentioned recession-level declines, Airbnb reported rising cancellations in the Middle East). Wall Street launched a specialized 'NACHO trade' strategy, marking the first time institutions publicly bet on a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The event has escalated from a short-term geopolitical disturbance to a structural narrative.
▸ Key price:
$United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$ USO 133.95→128.86(-3.80%)→135.85(intraday high)→133.30(-1.24%) |
$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ GLD 4...
▸ Core Logic: The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, trapping 1,500 vessels and effectively blocking approximately 20% of global oil transportation routes. The most counterintuitive signal here is:USO plunged 3.80% pre-market but quickly rebounded to hit a new intraday high, only to fall again after-hours— fully enacting a three-act drama of 'optimism for a ceasefire → Trump's statement providing support → market skepticism resurfacing,' with single-day volatility exceeding 500 basis points. More concerning is thatXLE weakened unilaterally throughout the session, diverging from the mid-session rebound in oil prices— while the market was pricing in 'supply constraints,' it had already begun to price in 'war destroying global demand' (Whirlpool mentioned recession-level declines, Airbnb reported rising cancellations in the Middle East). Wall Street launched a specialized 'NACHO trade' strategy, marking the first time institutions publicly bet on a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The event has escalated from a short-term geopolitical disturbance to a structural narrative.
▸ Key price:
$United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$ USO 133.95→128.86(-3.80%)→135.85(intraday high)→133.30(-1.24%) |
$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ GLD 4...
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$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Please don't rise yet, everyone hasn't bought enough
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$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ The earnings report on the 7th likely disappointed! There may be further sharp declines, so everyone should be cautious
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Jack 牛牛
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🎯 Key Focus:
$Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: BOLL breaks through lower band + MACD bottom divergence + rating adjustment (Stifel) + rating adjustment (TD Cowen))
$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (Cantor Fitzgerald) + rating adjustment (Morgan Stanley))
$Seagate Technology (STX.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (BofA Securities) + rating adjustment (Cantor Fitzgerald))
$Comfort Systems USA (FIX.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (UBS) + net inflow for three consecutive months)
$Target (TGT.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (DBS) + net inflow for five consecutive days)
【Bottom Signal】📉
• $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$: MACD bottom divergence, BOLL breaks through lower band, Eli Lilly and Co acquires Ajax Therapeutics for up to $2.3 billion, obtaining a Type II JAK2 inhibitor
• $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$:M...
$Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: BOLL breaks through lower band + MACD bottom divergence + rating adjustment (Stifel) + rating adjustment (TD Cowen))
$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (Cantor Fitzgerald) + rating adjustment (Morgan Stanley))
$Seagate Technology (STX.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (BofA Securities) + rating adjustment (Cantor Fitzgerald))
$Comfort Systems USA (FIX.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (UBS) + net inflow for three consecutive months)
$Target (TGT.US)$ (Fourfold signal overlay: EMA bullish alignment + MA bullish alignment + rating adjustment (DBS) + net inflow for five consecutive days)
【Bottom Signal】📉
• $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$: MACD bottom divergence, BOLL breaks through lower band, Eli Lilly and Co acquires Ajax Therapeutics for up to $2.3 billion, obtaining a Type II JAK2 inhibitor
• $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$:M...
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$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ This stock is indeed having some issues! Continuous decline, and no one is optimistic anymore
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Jack 牛牛
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$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ This is troublesome. The worry is that your big brother might launch a surprise attack tonight, and those who thought it was safe to enter the market could really get wiped out
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Jack 牛牛
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$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ The market is dominated by these damn wealthy individuals. One moment they claim that the newly released HBM4 from Samsung and SK Hynix will squeeze out Micron's market share. The next, they say Google's new technology could pose a serious threat to memory manufacturers. Then they mention that the drop in memory prices in China indicates the cycle for memory manufacturers is about to end. Now, they're saying Samsung's Q1 profits exceeded 800%, which means huge profits for Micron! Whatever they say always seems to be correct!
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