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Entering May, US stocks are back on track. While Federal Reserve officials are generally cautious about interest rate cuts, the market still sees recent weak US economic data as a strong signal to push for policy easing.
As risk appetite recovers, the VIX panic index, which measures market volatility, is approaching a low level in recent years. This week, the US will release key inflation data, which may once again influence the judgment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut point, thereby triggering a new round of market fluctuations.
Inflation expectations rise, pressure on the Federal Reserve intensifies
Following Powell's statement last two weeks to dispel market concerns about interest rate hikes, job market data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in April was far below expectations. The gap was the biggest since December 2021. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, higher than the forecast 3.8%; the number of jobless claims at the beginning of last week was also significantly higher than expected, rising to the highest level since August 2023, continuing to indicate that the job market is cooling down. These all strengthened the market's optimism about interest rate cuts later this year, driving the three major US stock indices to continue to rise last week.
At a time when anti-inflation progress seems to have stalled, there are growing signs that high interest rates have rift in the US economy. According to data released in early May, the initial value of consumer confidence in the US plummeted, and the unexpected rebound in inflation expectations for the next year raised market concerns that the US economy will fall into stagnation. The lower than expected consumer confidence data is a warning sign, indicating that strong consumer spending should not be taken for granted. Furthermore...