Summary of Key Macroeconomic Events:
1. Bank of America bankers have reaped substantial profits assisting Chinese companies in their overseas expansion. Hong Kong's stock market has raised the highest amount of IPO funds globally this year (Hong Kong stocks）。
2. Washington is set to ease regulatory oversight on Wall Street institutions, unleashing $2.6 trillion in liquidity for lending entities (including traditional banks) with a focus on the AI supply chain, directed towards data centers, energy, and other sectors.Trump is easing some of the tightened policies imposed on the banking sector since 2008. Analysts predict this move could boost earnings for US equities.35%。
Future signal: Trump will further relax regulations on Wall Street,The dual easing measures will support stronger economic data in the second half of the year and sustain the ongoing bull market,however, latent risks are present but are expected to remain manageable until 2027).
Next week's FOMC meeting!
The Federal Reserve has publicly stated its decision to pause the reduction of its balance sheet in the coming months.Powell's concession (which can signify Bessent's success in using fiscal policy to influence monetary policy, as well as Trump's success in personnel intervention; the U.S. over-issuance of short-term debt is being offset by fiscal measures to address the bond shortfall).
Why is the market so certain about an interest rate cut?
Economic Data: U.S. employment growth has shown signs of weakness, while some Fed officials believe that inflation is under control, with an expected inflation rate of approximately 2.5%. Under the dual mandate of 'fighting inflation' and 'protecting employment,' easing monetary policy is the only viable option.
The influence of the Trump faction within the Federal Reserve. A precautionary rate cut indicates that the Fed aims to proactively address potential downside risks to the economy, particularly in the labor market.
How the market might react before and after the rate cut...

1. Performance of Major Indices
The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, continuing the recent rebound trend driven by technology stocks. As of the market close:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.12% compared to the previous day.
The S&P 500 Index increased by 1.06%.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 1.37%.
Key drivers included a rebound in technology stocks and market optimism ahead of the upcoming release of U.S. inflation data and earnings season.
II. Significant increase in trading volume:
Notable volatility was observed in trading volumes:
Apple (AAPL.US) reported strong sales for the iPhone 17 series in the U.S. and Chinese markets, with sales in China doubling year-on-year; analysts raised the target price to $315, bringing the market value to $3.89 trillion. The share price surged 4% to a record high of $258.06, with options trading volume reaching 1.69 million contracts (call/put ratio 0.38).
Amazon (AMZN.US) experienced market volatility due to an AWS service outage, but operations resumed normally after the company quickly resolved the issue. The stock closed up 1.55% at $225.22, with a trading volume of 46.69M.
Blockchain-related stocks gained attention amid discussions on blockchain applications during the Federal Reserve's payment innovation conference, with platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood drawing focus. Bitcoin prices rose slightly to $110,794 (+1.49%), with active trading observed in related concept stocks.
III. Other market dynamics
Japan's stock market hit a record high driven by easing domestic political tensions and gains in U.S. equities, with the Nikkei index reaching new historical levels.
IV. Summary
The US stock market closed yesterday with...

Market conclusion
Monthly performance: In September, the monthly change in U.S. stocks exceeded 3.5%, higher than the historical average. The calendar effect (Wall Street holidays) receded, primarily due to smooth interest rate cut trading transmission and the push from AI narratives.
Core judgment:Before the Trump-related developments, the overall outlook for October was optimistic. Although the market faced the triple test of earnings season, macroeconomic data, and U.S.-China tensions, there was a degree of certainty in the market's trajectory driven by the logic of 'rate cut expectations'.
Mid-October → Trading 'Earnings Season': Market focus will be on high-valuation AI theme stocks. Even if key companies report improved profits or narrowed losses, it may not be enough to reverse the current pessimistic sentiment.
Late October → Trading 'Rate Cut Expectations': Market attention will shift to the FOMC meeting on October 28-29. The market currently assigns an extremely high probability to another 25 basis point rate cut, which will be the core support for the latter part of the month.
Core LogicThe "superposition state" of the market before.
The market is currently in a special state where most information can be interpreted as positive:
Strong data → Economic resilience supports corporate earnings.
Weak data → Reinforces the necessity for the Fed to cut interest rates.
This logic gives U.S. stocks relatively strong certainty in their performance in October; even if earnings reports are broadly lackluster, the market is more likely to enter a period of volatility rather than a deep correction.
Risk Warning: Rising volatility
The earnings season and the release of macroeconomic data will intensify the divergence between bulls and bears, leading to a significant rise in market volatility.
The main risks stem from the yet-to-be-released CPI and non-farm payroll data, as well as the Sino-US geopolitical tensions. ...

2025/09/25
I. Market Performance
The broader market extended its pullback, closing lower for the second consecutive day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.37% to 46,121.28 points, erasing all gains made following the Federal Reserve meeting;
Nasdaq Composite Index: Fell by 0.33% to 22,497.855 points, with technology stocks under broad pressure;
S&P 500 Index: Dropped slightly by 0.28% to 6,637.97 points, with eight out of the 11 major sectors declining.
II. Macroeconomic Influencing Factors
Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously emphasized the difficulty of a 'risk-free path,' leading to a cooling of market expectations for accommodative policies. Powell's statement: While he signaled a dovish stance, he also explicitly noted that a 25-basis-point rate cut would have little effect and expressed concerns over potentially overvalued U.S. equities. Powell’s remarks may be the main cause of the recent market pullback. Additionally, stronger-than-expected new home sales data fueled concerns about the persistence of high interest rates.
III. Sudden Surge in Trading Volume of Target Securities
An accident at the Grasberg mine operated by CX (Freeport-McMoRan) in Indonesia caused a production halt, leading to an 8% downgrade in Q3 copper/gold sales forecasts. The stock fell 7.32% pre-market, with intraday trading volume surging to three times the usual level.
NVDA (NVIDIA) saw option trading volumes reach 4.45 million contracts (primarily call options), reflecting significant technical correction pressures. The stock closed down 2.82%, with notable intraday volatility.
MU (Micron Technology) reported Q4 earnings surpassing expectations (revenue up 46%), driven by robust demand for AI memory chips. Post-market share prices surged, closing up 1.9%.
The upward trend continued after hours...

Yesterday's US Stock Market Recap!
I. Market Performance
The three major indices ended their consecutive gains, experiencing a pullback!
Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 46,292.78 points, down 0.19%, ending a streak of three consecutive record highs.
S&P 500 Index: closed at 6,656.92 points, down 0.55%.
Nasdaq Composite Index: closed at 22,573.47 points, down 0.95%, weighed down by a pullback in technology stocks.
Key drivers: (Despite market expectations of a 90% probability of a rate cut in October), Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks highlighted risks related to inflation and the labor market, explicitly pointing out that the current market valuations are too high. His comments triggered concerns over elevated valuations, prompting some investors to take profits. The market, especially indices, could face a short-term correction. Caution is advised regarding large-cap stocks with high valuations.
NVIDIA (NVDA.US): Shares surged by 4% intraday after announcing a planned investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, hitting a record high, but closed down 2.82% with a trading volume of $34.199 billion.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US): Shares rose 3.70% on news of a 20% price hike for its third-generation 3nm process, with a trading volume of $5.018 billion.
Cipher Mining (CIFR.US): Shares rose 7.95% in pre-market trading, benefiting from the overall strength in Bitcoin mining stocks and the company's transition to AI data centers.
CleanSpark (CLSK.US): Shares climbed 7.5% in pre-market trading as its Bitcoin-backed loan limit was increased...

2025/09/19
1. Performance of Major Indices
All three major indices closed higher and reached new highs
Nasdaq Composite Index: closed at 22,470.73 points (+0.94%), hitting an intraday historical high of 22,540.93 points.
S&P 500 Index: closed at 6,631.96 points (+0.48%), breaking through the 6,600-point threshold.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 46,142.42 points (+0.27%), marking the fifth consecutive trading session of gains.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Realized: Following a 25-basis-point rate cut announced the previous day, the market further digested signals of potential dual rate cuts within the year, with widespread expectations betting on ample liquidity. The market was primarily driven by technology stocks: sectors such as semiconductors and quantum computing performed strongly, propelling the Nasdaq and S&P indices higher.
II. Key Sector and Stock Dynamics
Semiconductor sector impacted by NVIDIA and Intel developments: Intel (INTC.US) shares surged 22.77% in a single day, hitting a one-year high after NVIDIA announced a $5 billion strategic investment to jointly develop data center and PC chips.
NVIDIA (NVDA.US): Shares rose 3.49% concurrently, with its market capitalization surpassing $4.3 trillion as capital inflows accelerated into upstream companies within the AI supply chain.
Meanwhile, the quantum computing concept sector experienced a surge in trading activity driven by Pentagon orders.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US): Secured a $58 million contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory...

US Dollar Index Crisis!
Sudden plunge within a single day! The US Dollar Index (DXY) suddenly fell to 96.63, its lowest level since July, with a daily decline of 0.68%.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have strengthened, with the market assigning a 100% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17. Some institutions predict that there may be a cumulative total of three rate cuts within the year (with the federal funds rate range potentially dropping to 3.5%-3.75% by year-end). Inflation data and rate cut signals have raised concerns about stagflation. The conflict between the White House's "America First" policy and the dollar's status as an international reserve currency has intensified the market's reassessment of dollar asset allocation, and dollar liquidity may be affected by international capital outflows.
The foundation of the dollar's credibility is shaken:
The US 'twin deficits' (fiscal deficit accounting for 5.6% of GDP, with the trade deficit continuously widening) have triggered concerns over the long-term value of the dollar, with institutions forecasting that the US Dollar Index may drop by an additional 5%-7% over the next year. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have reduced the interest rate differential attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting foreign investors to accelerate forex hedging operations (e.g., selling dollar forward contracts). Data from Deutsche Bank shows that external debt has exceeded 120% of US GDP, and any sell-off actions amplify dollar volatility. The recent plunge in the dollar is a result of both short-term policy expectations and long-term structural issues. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected and sends dovish signals, the dollar may further test the 95 support level; conversely, if inflation fears dominate the market, the dollar might stage a temporary rebound but with limited magnitude, as this could trigger narratives of gold replacing the dollar. Regardless, the market currently remains in a state of compounded uncertainty, awaiting its own resolution.