$MAYBANK (1155.MY)$ Maybank won't "die", but its stock price can still drop significantly. Strong fundamentals do not mean the stock price won't decline due to macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in the industry environment, or foreign capital flows. History has shown that the stability of bank stocks does not protect them from market shocks.
1. Bank stocks rely on a high interest rate environment:
The short-term high interest rate environment has supported NIM, but this is only a short-term bullish. With the increasing downward pressure on the future economy, the central bank may gradually cut interest rates, which will compress Maybank's core profit source.
- In 2023, Maybank's net interest margin decreased from 2.37% in 2022 to 2.25% (gradual reduction in high-interest dividend)
2. Foreign capital outflow:
- In the first quarter of 2024, foreign capital has withdrawn more than 2 billion US dollars from the ASEAN market, with bank stocks facing concentrated selling pressure.
- Bloomberg data: "Foreign investment accounts for approximately 18% of Maybank's total shares" (Global risk aversion decline may lead to more capital outflows)
(Individual stock investors must be clear - stock price fluctuations have nothing to do with whether a company "will go bankrupt". Overconfidence will make you overlook potential crises and eventually suffer heavy losses. The fluctuation of Maybank's stock price not only does not represent the collapse of the Malaysian economy, but is even irrelevant to the fundamental stability of the banking system.)
Ⅱ.即使Maybank出现经营问题，股价下跌，对大马经济的实际冲击非常有限！
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