Next Friday marks a critically important options expiration date in July. Ahead of this, large institutional longs—seeking to avoid being buried alive by the massive wave of lock-up expirations following the August 6 earnings report—will initiate a major-scale, front-running selloff before next Friday. As bullish sentiment completely collapses, panic-driven traders will aggressively buy put options at the 135–140 strike range. To maintain delta-neutral books, options market makers will be forced to mechanically and indiscriminately dump SPCX shares in the secondary market like robots. This selling pressure will directly trigger an accelerating free-fall in the stock price by mid-next week, ruthlessly crushing through the psychological 140 level. SPCX will approach its official IPO price of 135 in the most humiliating fashion—coming infinitely close to, or even briefly piercing it intraday! The entire trading range for next week will shift downward from the 150-era regime into a new 135–143 zone. Retail investors who mocked my forecasts as far-fetched—your real pain has only just begun.

Over the past month, US and Korean equities have simultaneously experienced a sharp pullback. On the surface, this has been attributed to news narratives such as Meta’s excess computing capacity, interest rate hike expectations, AI bubble concerns, and worries about memory demand cycles. However, the core underlying cause has been massive capital outflows driven by two back-to-back mega IPOs of historic scale: global institutional investors aggressively sold shares of the Magnificent Seven Nasdaq stocks, US memory leaders, and major Korean blue-chips to secure discounted primary-market allocations in SpaceX and SK Hynix, creating intense selling pressure.
The combined indicative subscription demand exceeding USD 300 billion and USD 200 billion vividly illustrates the frenzy among investors to secure allocations, which translated into sustained selling pressure in secondary markets. SpaceX ultimately raised USD 75 billion and SK Hynix USD 26.5 billion—totaling approximately USD 101.5 billion—which has been permanently withdrawn from secondary markets and transferred into corporate accounts, with no intention of returning to equities.
Now that SK Hynix has listed its shares in the US and the subscription and payment windows for both mega IPOs have closed, the forced capital drain phase is over. Idle capital previously reallocated will gradually flow back into oversold tech and memory stocks, likely leading to a decline in market volatility and a period of range-bound, stabilizing recovery.
Narratives cited publicly—such as Meta’s idle computing capacity, rate hike expectations, AI valuation bubbles, and cyclical memory demand—are merely post-hoc justifications. The true driving force has been the massive, cross-market capital suction caused by these two super-sized IPOs.
Financial media and brokerage analysts amplify public narratives around Meta and the Federal Reserve, providing retail investors with seemingly 'reasonable explanations' for the market decline;
Wall Street institutions quietly completed portfolio rebalancing to secure low-cost IPO allocations. Once the dust settles on these offerings, they will pivot to bullish commentary on tech and memory sectors to monetize their positions...