The latest geopolitical tensions around Iran have pushed investors to watch oil, gold, and silver closely. But the bigger question isn’t just commodities, it’s what happens to the broader market if oil keeps climbing.
If oil spikes and stays elevated, the chain reaction could look like this:
1️⃣ Oil ↑ → Energy & transport costs rise
Higher oil means higher electricity, logistics, and manufacturing costs across the economy.
2️⃣ Inflation pressure retu...

SPX options with near-term expiration. Recently changing strategies

The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal,
but he continued imposing them under a different guise. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs was illegal. Subsequently, Trump reimposed a 10% global tariff and later announced an increase to 15%. Following the Supreme Court's ruling, the actual tariff rates on exports to the US from countries like China, India, and Brazil decreased. Meanwhile, nations such as the UK and Australia, which had previously reached agreements with the US for lower tariff rates, suffered relatively due to the new unified tariff. This adjustment provided short-term benefits to major manufacturing countries like China and Brazil, aiding their exports. The US may reinstate targeted tariffs through other trade investigation tools (such as Section 301). The current 'benefit' might only be a tactical pause. Trump is planning to visit China at the end of March, and the temporary 'ineffectiveness' of the tariff weapon places China in a more advantageous position in subsequent negotiations. China may leverage this to demand concessions from the US regarding semiconductor technology exports, trade restrictions, and arms sales to Taiwan.
Tariff ruling hints at Trump's political calculations
Although the Supreme Court's ruling made Trump publicly 'angry,' it may actually benefit his midterm election campaign. On one hand, it could temporarily improve economic data, boosting the governing party's electoral prospects; on the other hand, the narrative of 'presidential setback' can mobilize core supporters and increase voter turnout.
Signs of cooling in the artificial intelligence investment boom
NVIDIA and OpenAI have abandoned the previously reached $100 billion investment agreement and are instead negotiating a $3...