Fire-無限スパチャ
liked
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$ I think what bond holders now have to worry about is how long high interest rates will continue rather than whether interest rates will be cut or not. The market already predicts how many interest rate cuts will there be during this year? It's at that point. There will probably be interest rate cuts. I think the reason interest rates temporarily dropped drastically last year was because urgent interest rate cuts had surfaced in the scenario. The current policy interest rate is in the range of 5.25 to 5.5, and since interest rates were cut by 0.25 per session from there, interest rates are still very tasty, and the situation where bonds are disadvantageous continues. If a scenario where interest rates are drastically lowered does not emerge, we will not be able to see the light of day. On the other hand, interest rate cuts are a tailwind for companies that are performing well even under high interest rates. I also currently have a high-tech portfolio, but I am always careful about interest rates and bond prices so that I can change my opinion when the time comes. At least, if you are buying TMF, be prepared that you are challenging a contrarian attack, and we recommend investing within a reasonable range...
Translated
16
Fire-無限スパチャ
commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$ Honestly, ① corporate financial results are strong ② each index is strong across the board ③ the Fed is sounding an alarm for optimistic market observations ④ long-term bond bidding is weak ⑤ starting with GS, the forecast for the timing and rate of interest rate cuts is steadily receding
In this environment, there is no reason for the Fed to rush to cut interest rates, and I think there is a high possibility that bonds will be sold and interest rates will rise if you think about it normally, but why dare to go against it and buy a leveraged TMF at this timing? Do you anticipate that an unexpected situation will occur and a hard landing will occur? If that's the case, why not buy it when you see signs of it? I still think I can understand TMV that goes the other way in the short term (although it's hard to say that it's a good timing), but... is there any reason I've overlooked it?
In this environment, there is no reason for the Fed to rush to cut interest rates, and I think there is a high possibility that bonds will be sold and interest rates will rise if you think about it normally, but why dare to go against it and buy a leveraged TMF at this timing? Do you anticipate that an unexpected situation will occur and a hard landing will occur? If that's the case, why not buy it when you see signs of it? I still think I can understand TMV that goes the other way in the short term (although it's hard to say that it's a good timing), but... is there any reason I've overlooked it?
Translated
4
17
Fire-無限スパチャ
commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
I think people who are fidgety should watch the situation after 3/11 and go buy it!
The rest is at your own risk ✋
I think people who are fidgety should watch the situation after 3/11 and go buy it!
The rest is at your own risk ✋
Translated
5
7
Fire-無限スパチャ
reacted to and commented on
Translated
3
Fire-無限スパチャ
commented on
Fire-無限スパチャ
liked and commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$ First, as an assumption. The Fed will not cut interest rates rapidly unless there is a so-called hard landing where catastrophic damage to the economy occurs, such as during the Lehman shock. It was an unprecedented crisis at the time of the coronavirus shock, and that level cannot be compared. Also, it seems natural that the current US administration wants to issue government bonds and keep interest rates above a certain level in order to realize policies this year. It means that the risk that inflation will rekindle due to political instability in the Middle East cannot be completely dispelled for the time being. Based on these, the Fed's idea is that interest rate cuts are necessary to the extent that the economy does not die, but the real intention is that they want to maintain interest rates above a certain period of time. If a so-called soft landing were to be realized, long-term bonds, and this product with further leverage, would be extremely dangerous. Betting on this stock means betting on a hard landing, and there is no other reason to choose. Interest rates have been raised quite a bit, so there will always be interest rate cuts at some point, and victory is confirmed! blind for vague reasons such as...
Translated
7
6
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
I've been posting a lot of editorials, but are you still watching this?
Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell
I've been posting a lot of editorials, but are you still watching this?
Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell
Translated
5
Fire-無限スパチャ
commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$
How many people are here looking at the raw data? 🤣
How many people are here looking at the raw data? 🤣
Translated
3
10
︎
Fire-無限スパチャ
commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF(TMF.US$ Well don't let go
the man just shut up and said TMF, right? lol
the man just shut up and said TMF, right? lol
Translated
5
1
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,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)