The two main macro themes on Friday are the December employment data and the final ruling on Trump's tariff case.
1. December employment data: The current market expectation is better than last month, with a low unemployment rate and high employment numbers.
If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it means that concerns about employment risks will decline, the job market is moderately weakening, and this will ease worries about economic problems, benefiting the economy, the US dollar, and US blue-chip and growth stocks, though it may not be favorable for tech stocks and #Bitcoin.
If the data is below expectations, with a rising unemployment rate and declining employment figures, employment risks increase, boosting expectations of loose monetary policy. This would benefit tech stocks and high-beta assets like BTC but hurt the US dollar and growth-oriented blue chips.
However, caution is needed. If the unemployment rate is higher than expected or even above the previous figure, and employment data remains negative, it could trigger the possibility of the Sahm Rule being activated, leading to expectations of an economic recession, which would be negative for risk assets.
2. Tonight at 11 PM, the US Supreme Court will issue its final ruling on Trump's tariff case.
Note that this ruling does not guarantee the full results will be announced immediately; they might not be released until June 2026. However, given the market’s attention on the tariff case and its significance, the Supreme Court may directly announce the ruling results.
My personal expectation is that the Supreme Court will rule the tariffs as lawful, without overturning them, but will restrict Trump’s ability to bypass Congress in imposing new tariffs.
Most judges on the Supreme Court lean towards being either pro-Trump or neutral. Additionally, while some oppose him, now is not the time to overturn...

Thursday Financial Market Analysis:
1. Gold and silver prices fell while the US Dollar Index rose. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is facing an annual technical rebalancing. After tonight’s close, gold and silver futures contracts worth $14.1 billion are expected to be sold. Over the next five days, there will likely be a 20% sell-off in USD/JPY.
This selling pressure has somewhat restrained short-term gains for gold, while for silver, it could lead to significant volatility risks that need attention.
2. Yesterday’s ADP data eased concerns about employment risks and economic slowdown. Coupled with expectations of a rebound in Friday's employment data, short-term market stimulus has put pressure on the bond market. Long-term bond yields have risen, with the 10-year US Treasury yield leading the increase as the most sensitive indicator.
3. US stocks opened lower, extending the tech sector's downward correction. The SPHB/SPHQ ratio dropped to around 1.58, indicating reduced risk appetite in the stock market. Market capital is shifting towards growth and blue-chip stocks, with defense stocks remaining strong. The short-term VIX index increased, signaling higher volatility risks.
Chapter Summary:
Currently, alongside declines in gold and US Treasury prices, risk aversion has weakened, liquidity is returning, and blue-chip defense stocks are gaining momentum. Although major US stock indices are down, this reflects capital rotation rather than a completely bearish downtrend.
#Bitcoin briefly followed the downturn but found support and rebounded near 89,300. Going forward, we will continue to monitor whether high-beta stocks like US tech shares extend their losses. As long as the current volatile pattern persists, there should be no major short-term issues.