CPIF(シーピー)
commented on
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ In addition to the breakdown, an inflection line was also drawn for NFCI.
Significantly increased cash ratio in satellite portfolios for defense; core index-focused portfolios maintained status quo for acceptance.
In preparation for the next inflection point, the main objective is to observe stocks with downside resistance.
Significantly increased cash ratio in satellite portfolios for defense; core index-focused portfolios maintained status quo for acceptance.
In preparation for the next inflection point, the main objective is to observe stocks with downside resistance.
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CPIF(シーピー)
liked
$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
Since the end of the year, I've been taking actions like buying IREN or selling options in demo accounts, prompting some to ask, 'What’s your position?'
What is that all about? Are you a day trader who follows price movement trends or something? ... I doubt anyone has that question.
I don’t think so, but let me go ahead and explain anyway.
Role theory is closely related here.
IREN has two major themes: data centers (DC) and cryptocurrency.
Think of it like Fire and Water in Pokémon.
Additionally, since they can secure their own power supply, they don’t have the key vulnerability that other DCs are most likely to face.
In terms of contract acquisition, they’ve already secured a major player like Microsoft (MS).
It's relatively strong within DC.
Initially, at the start of the year, I assumed things like this.
• This year marks the implementation year for asset tokenization and cryptocurrency payment infrastructure as a settlement method for AI agents, so cryptocurrencies will likely rise in tandem.
• Eventually, the use of AI will expand into physical AI applications, so DC demand will ultimately not stop. Revenue explosions with initial deficits will likely be reevaluated.
IRE...
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CPIF(シーピー)
liked
If only it were with real money, we could get audited certification and that would be interesting, but it’s a shame it's virtual.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
I don’t usually do options at all, but when I tried, I saw that in one situation you can get returns of around 90%. Using just 0.6% of my capital, it contributed to a 10% increase in my assets. No wonder some people get hooked.
But in real trading, there is no need for options; there’s no reason to increase complexity.
Standard long position on Optical Communications and short on Para.
In real trading, I've already exited my long positions, and I don't take individual shorts. (I do trade indices occasionally.)
Though I haven’t made this much in real life, since the demo involves no risk, this kind of thing becomes possible.
Demo and real trading are different.
Even if I have a certain level of confidence, I avoid high-risk opportunities. It’s better not to bet big.
It's a game where the premise is to minimize the reduction of assets while capturing asymmetric opportunities.
There might be fun periods when you're not trading; I'm currently testing new observation techniques, together with Chappy.
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CPIF(シーピー)
commented on
$Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE.US)$
I think today there will be a rise in the power sector, and it’s been on my radar since around the end of the year 👀
I think today there will be a rise in the power sector, and it’s been on my radar since around the end of the year 👀
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CPIF(シーピー)
voted
Many polls reported ahead of the House of Representatives election on February 8 suggest that the ruling party is in a favorable position.If the ruling party secures a landslide victory and stabilizes its administration, Prime Minister Takashi’s proposed policies are expected to advance, accelerating the “Takashi trade.”In that case,the Nikkei Stock Average and “Takashi stocks” are expected to rise.as expected.
While there may be opportunities, if the outcome differs from previously reported forecasts or ifnegative aspects of the Takashi tradeaffect the market,Risk of falling stock pricesThis situation cannot be ruled out.
The Nikkei Stock Average just hit a record high on February 3, which coincides with Setsubun. The question is,"Buy on election"whether this upward trend will continue orif it will follow the adage 'Peak at Setsubun, Bottom at Higan'—that remains to be seen.
In preparation for the upcoming House of Representatives election, we’ll review 'Takichi-related stocks' and highlight potential risks.
Majority of reports suggest the ruling party is in a favorable position.
Based on a comprehensive review of various media surveys,there's strong momentum for the Liberal Democratic Party to secure a single-party majority (233 seats).Including coalition partner Ishin no Kai’s seats, they are expected to gain majorities across all standing committees.Absolute stable majority (261 seats)or, even if rejected in the House of Councillors, they can override the vetoTwo-thirds (310 seats) are secured for reapproval...
While there may be opportunities, if the outcome differs from previously reported forecasts or ifnegative aspects of the Takashi tradeaffect the market,Risk of falling stock pricesThis situation cannot be ruled out.
The Nikkei Stock Average just hit a record high on February 3, which coincides with Setsubun. The question is,"Buy on election"whether this upward trend will continue orif it will follow the adage 'Peak at Setsubun, Bottom at Higan'—that remains to be seen.
In preparation for the upcoming House of Representatives election, we’ll review 'Takichi-related stocks' and highlight potential risks.
Based on a comprehensive review of various media surveys,there's strong momentum for the Liberal Democratic Party to secure a single-party majority (233 seats).Including coalition partner Ishin no Kai’s seats, they are expected to gain majorities across all standing committees.Absolute stable majority (261 seats)or, even if rejected in the House of Councillors, they can override the vetoTwo-thirds (310 seats) are secured for reapproval...
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CPIF(シーピー)
commented on
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Based on the drawn trendline,
The S&P 500 will likely be in an upward-ranging market starting October 2025 (NASDAQ also roughly similar)
There is a tendency to test the lower end of the range around the middle to end of each month
All rallies from the lower end of the range rise to the upper end of the range without pulling back at approximately the midpoint (light blue line in the image), taking about 5 to 7 trading days
Based on the drawn trendline,
The S&P 500 will likely be in an upward-ranging market starting October 2025 (NASDAQ also roughly similar)
There is a tendency to test the lower end of the range around the middle to end of each month
All rallies from the lower end of the range rise to the upper end of the range without pulling back at approximately the midpoint (light blue line in the image), taking about 5 to 7 trading days
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CPIF(シーピー)
liked
Columns Yesterday,
After plummeting as if to say 'Is the war starting?', I was just watching with sleepy eyes as it made a V-shaped recovery, like an unmanned drone had been shot down.
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
No good, I should have entered. There was a high probability of gaining about 7%. (For a typical V-shape on the right side in day trading, the expected gain is around 2-3%).
Since January, I've been discussing investment theory with Chappy. He claims he doesn't have access to datasets, but I'm amazed at how well he captures their characteristics.
He explained that he structured the thinking of successful people and introduced me to the excellent framework called Role Theory—it really moved me.
He’s even developing observation technology for the cycle until roles disappear, so I feel like, wow, the era when AI will win is coming soon.
He insists that to win as an individual, you need to spend time, take positions early, and observe from within—pushing for entering extremely early on :w
When I asked, 'Isn’t it okay to wait for the breakout?' I got scolded: 'That’s not the environment we’re in now. We still have time before the peak, but we're in cycles 2.5-3.5 (out of 4).'
He's become quite sharp in his delivery, which makes him very impressive.
As for Para, supply and demand-wise, I think...
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CPIF(シーピー)
liked
$Zeta Global (ZETA.US)$
Even if you buy software-related stocks, you won't find happiness due to strong headwinds
You should reconsider your market outlook
Even if you buy software-related stocks, you won't find happiness due to strong headwinds
You should reconsider your market outlook
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CPIF(シーピー) OP : A strong rebound occurred the day after being extremely cautious. Although there was an indication of a reversal from Premarket, movements were sluggish due to heightened alertness against false signals.
・Caution was present even before the NFCI indications, and it’s positive that significant drawdowns have been mostly avoided recently and on the day itself. It is advisable to document caution indicators and assign them scores.
・If Friday turns out to be the reversal day, it would only be Day 1, so prepare for entries starting from Day 2. If, instead, there is a pullback on Monday, continue with a defensive stance.
・In situations like sudden recoveries after sizable paper losses or stop-loss triggers, it's not uncommon to see people freeze up both mentally and physically, as I once did. Therefore, just surviving such moments should be considered a positive.