The financial storm has entered a stable phase; can the macro side provide better stabilizing factors?
Main narrative: Government shutdown, but currently still in an optimistic phase!
In the early hours, Trump indicated communication with the House of Representatives to seek the fastest possibility of ending the government shutdown. The House will convene at 10:00 AM US time on February 3 to vote on the remaining fiscal bills. Beijing time is 11:00 PM on February 3.
Trump stated that once the House passes the bill, he will sign it into effect as quickly as possible to restore government operations. On the House side, although the Republicans hold a majority, they are not unified, and there is still a possibility, albeit small, of voting failure. Republican leaders in the House are actively communicating with lawmakers to pass the bill with the largest possible margin.
Once the government resumes operations, one risk factor on the macro level will be reduced, and the market will gradually become more optimistic.
One of the supporting narratives: the financial storm has temporarily eased.
Gold prices rose, the US dollar stabilized, and the bond market remained steady. Yesterday’s manufacturing data temporarily boosted confidence in the US economy, bringing temporary stability back to the financial markets. Currently, the financial markets are undergoing 'repair.' Short-term risk appetite remains weak, but this increased stability is considered a positive development.
Another supporting narrative: the largest tax filing season in the US continues.
On January 26, the US started its largest tax filing season, which will indirectly increase liquidity to some extent. This liquidity boost will last from February to March, tapering off in April. From April to the end of April, there will be a short-term reduction in liquidity due to tax payments. At the current stage, liquidity is being supplemented, but not significantly. Unlike...

Has the financial storm been weathered smoothly?
On the second trading day of this week, gold rebound accelerated in tandem with the US dollar's rise, while long-end US Treasury prices remained stable, indicating that the short-term selling spree of dollar-denominated assets has come to an end and risks in the financial markets have eased.
At the same time, high volatility in risk markets caused by liquidity issues and deleveraging pressures has been alleviated, meaning gold is no longer considered a primary target for liquidation sales in the short term.
Overall, short-term risks in financial markets have decreased, which is a positive sign. However, although pre-market US stocks stayed in positive territory, and the VIX index stabilized around 16, risk appetite had not fully recovered in pre-market trading.
Currently, this stage marks the recovery phase for financial markets. Liquidity has temporarily flowed back into gold, followed by the US dollar and US Treasuries. Due to yesterday's unexpectedly optimistic US manufacturing data, some funds were allocated towards low-beta, high-yield blue-chip stocks in the US market.
This situation has led to a cautious optimism where, despite some market recovery, risk appetite has not fully returned. Liquidity needs to stabilize and repair core assets before confidence can gradually increase in the risk investment market, eventually driving the rise of high-beta risky assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin.
For participants in the crypto market, a dangerous period seems to have passed. The next step is to wait for the market to restore confidence and attract new liquidity to push prices higher, or await positive catalysts that could stimulate sentiment in risk markets.

The US envoy and the Iranian prime minister will meet this Friday in Istanbul, Turkey, to jointly advance the 'nuclear negotiations'.
Although there is not much optimism about reaching an agreement, as long as negotiations continue, it means the risk of direct conflict is reduced. At least for this week, there is no need to worry about geopolitical risks in the Middle East temporarily.
This represents a short-term relief in sentiment for the risk markets, which is quite positive!

The January nonfarm payroll data originally scheduled for this Friday has been canceled due to the government shutdown.
Last week, the US House Speaker expressed confidence in restoring the session as soon as possible and holding a vote on Tuesday. However, as of now, the official website of the US House of Representatives shows that the House is still in recess. Hopefully, it can reconvene smoothly on Tuesday!

I think the entire cryptocurrency community should thank MicroStrategy. When the market downturns and many people spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) about this industry, and when many are spreading FUD about MicroStrategy, what did MicroStrategy do?
It didn’t respond to any FUD but simply kept buying periodically and held quietly, giving the market more confidence!
This is what a real holder does. When the market is good, such actions are easily overlooked, but in a pessimistic environment during a downturn, these actions often bring much-needed relief and are admirable!
MicroStrategy also represents positive energy driving this industry forward, so every time there’s market risk, let's reduce FUD for clicks. If MicroStrategy were to collapse, it would benefit none of us!

Better-than-expected manufacturing data provided a short-term boost to risk markets, but inflation concerns have re-emerged!
Let's take a look at the current performance of various assets in the financial markets. Tonight’s ISM manufacturing data unexpectedly improved, recording at 52.6, which is higher than both forecasts and previous readings, and also above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. This indicates that US manufacturing has transitioned from a contraction phase into an expansion phase, a sign of manufacturing recovery.
Regardless of how reliable the authenticity of the data is, this serves as a short-term sentiment booster for the current market. Of course, the sustainability of this boost remains questionable.
The US dollar continued to strengthen while gold fell in tandem; however, the decline in gold was relatively stable without significant drops, indicating that the selling of gold to cover leveraged positions has slowed down in the short term.
Yields on the long-end of US Treasuries rose. Given that the current macro market is trading based on this set of manufacturing data, it naturally reflects future inflation concerns. The rise in 10-year yields outpaced that of 30-year bonds, meaning that medium-term inflation worries are more pronounced while long-term concerns ease, consistent with prior market expectations.
All four major US stock indexes turned positive. Although driven by economic factors, this still counts as a positive boost for the current stage. The SPHB/SPHQ ratio climbed to around 1.57, signaling an improvement in risk appetite. The VIX index dropped significantly to near 16.19, entering a mildly optimistic phase with reduced volatility risks.
This surprisingly good manufacturing data appeared quite 'interesting.' At this stage, the unexpected shift of the manufacturing data from a contraction phase to an expansion phase brought about expectations of a manufacturing recovery...

The sharp drop in #Bitcoin over the weekend created a gap in BTC futures prices, currently around 78,700 to 81,800.
The good news is that once BTC stabilizes, filling this gap could drive prices to rebound to around 81,800.
The bad news is that filling the gap still depends on whether the price can stabilize. Moreover, filling the gap only indicates the extent of the rebound and does not determine its sustainability or overall strength. Further observation is needed to see if an effective recovery can begin and how the price stabilizes after the rebound.

Pre-market losses in US stocks continue, risk appetite weakens, financial risks still exist; is the rebound in gold sustainable? Has the risk of financial liquidity been alleviated, and has #Bitcoin completed its final drop?
The US dollar is currently stable above 97, gold rebounded during the day, and US Treasury movements have temporarily stabilized. In the short term, the crisis of selling gold and #BTC to cover leveraged positions in the US stock market seems to have eased, but whether the real crisis has been resolved will depend on the market reaction after the official opening of US stocks.
Although pre-market US stocks are still falling and risk appetite has weakened somewhat, BTC appears to have already moved ahead of US stocks in terms of declines. As long as US stocks do not continue to fall further after the opening, the short-term trend for BTC will be relatively stable.
Currently, BTC has once again broken the short-term bottoming signal formed yesterday after falling during the day. It now needs to re-establish a clear short-term bottoming signal starting from the 1-hour timeframe and gradually moving up to the daily chart.
Key characteristics include bottom spikes followed by subsequent rebounds. The question is whether strong rebounds occur over 2-3 consecutive candlesticks surpassing the highest point of the spiking low candlestick. Establish bottoming confirmation on the 1-hour chart, then progressively evaluate the 4-hour and daily charts.
After today's afternoon decline, BTC price has reached another critical point — the lowest point seen in April 2025. This level is clearly an emotional turning point...

On the first trading day of February, the market is in a phase of lamentation and caution. Key macro events are still unresolved, geopolitical risks pose a latent threat, and Wash's policy expectations have brought some emotional pressure to the market. How will the market find its footing?
Tonight's key points to watch:
1. Whether the House successfully reconvenes and votes smoothly on the remaining fiscal bills, allowing the US government to resume operations quickly and avoid an escalation of risks from a government shutdown.
2. During the US trading session, how will the market interpret Wash's policies? Will it continue to expand pessimistic expectations for tighter policies, or will the market gradually adapt? Meanwhile, will Bessent align with the market’s current expectations of Wash’s policies to further consolidate the stability of the US dollar, allowing it to strengthen in the short term?
3. The performance of various assets in the financial markets: will the US dollar continue to rise? Can gold stabilize and stop falling? Will US Treasury prices continue to increase, lowering yields on long-term bonds and easing the sell-off pressure on US Treasuries to maintain stable trends? Once confidence in the US dollar returns and US Treasuries stabilize, liquidity threats ease, which would also mean that risky markets could get a temporary reprieve.
Among tonight’s assets, pay close attention to the US dollar and Treasury movements. Can gold effectively stabilize and rebound? A rebound in gold would indicate a reduced demand for short-term liquidity replenishment in risk markets, providing some relief to risky markets. US stocks may see a rebound as well.
Of course, given the current financial risks, it is important to monitor whether US officials intervene through statements—especially Trump, Bessent, and Wash.

Although the negotiations between the US and Iran have temporarily eased the risks of geopolitical conflicts, which is one of the factors contributing to the decline in gold prices, the current drop in gold and other non-ferrous metals is clearly an abnormal plunge.
On the first trading day of February, global asset markets collectively fell, which is an unusual signal, raising concerns.
On January 28, I wrote an analysis on the global dollar siphoning and risks, essentially aiming to emphasize that we are currently in a dollar release cycle. As long as the US does not experience economic or financial systemic risks, the dollar will not trigger a global capital drain.
However, judging from the current trends in various global assets, there are signs suggesting that the US might be initiating a self-rescue by drawing capital globally. It's possible that hidden risks within the US economy or financial system may emerge again, even though they haven’t been exposed by the media yet, it has already raised alarms.
Of course, my current perspective is purely speculative. I hope experts can verify this among themselves; I need more perspectives to assess whether the US is at the tipping point of any systemic risk exposure!