Following Trump's statement in the early hours that Hasset will remain in his current position and market expectations shifting towards Warsh, Bessent delivered a speech addressing issues related to the subsequent nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair.
He expressed that Trump's view on Hasset is the president’s privilege and he will not intervene, emphasizing that the list of candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chair will be announced around the time of the Davos Forum, approximately around January 25th.
It was also mentioned that whether Powell remains in his position after May depends on Powell himself, but there are serious concerns about the emergence of a 'shadow chair' situation.
At the same time, it was noted that Fed temporary governor Milan can continue to serve as a governor after January 31st.
There are several details and key points worth noting in Bessent’s remarks:
1. When asked about Trump’s stance on Hasset, he simply stated that it is the president's prerogative and did not explicitly confirm that Hasset would not be a candidate. I believe Hasset still has a chance to become the Fed Chair, and Trump's attitude in the early morning may have been a way to test the reaction of the market and other parties.
2. Concerns about a 'shadow chair' pose a dilemma for Powell—whether he stays or leaves depends on him. I believe Bessent might have a chance to persuade Powell not to stay, but his confidence seems low. Before the Department of Justice investigated Powell, Bessent had no concerns about this issue. His current worries indicate that while he previously had confidence in making Powell leave, now escalating conflicts have weakened his confidence.
3. Regarding Milan's term of office, I consider this an important point. The new Fed Chair must be nominated from among the governors, meaning neither Hasset nor Warsh currently qualify...

January 16 Financial Market Dynamics: How are various assets performing amid uncertainty?
1. Gold declined, but its trend and structure remain intact. On one hand, the enthusiasm for precious metals trading has supported prices; on the other hand, underlying geopolitical uncertainties persist, particularly issues in the Middle East.
2. The US Dollar Index rose. The main driver of the dollar's increase is the current uncertainty surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair. Trump indicated he might not nominate Hassett, which temporarily raised the likelihood of Warsh. However, market expectations regarding Warsh’s stance on interest rates are not optimistic, and the continuation of the current rate has led to a slight strengthening of the dollar.
3. The bond market came under collective pressure, with yields rising. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond increased by 1.05%, showing the most significant rise. Similar to point two, growing uncertainty about the next Federal Reserve Chair has fueled increased uncertainty about the future interest rate path.
The uncertainty in the interest rate market has led to expectations of continued high rates and inflation concerns, which are the primary factors driving up yields on 10- and 30-year long-term bonds.
4. International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly recently. After two consecutive days of declines, today saw a rebound, still driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Additionally, the supply-demand balance of crude oil has been affected by geopolitical issues in Iran and Venezuela. Although international agencies assess that current crude oil production is sufficient to offset the negative impacts from Iran and Venezuela, crude prices have still risen slightly.
5. Risk markets, including the US stock market, saw collective gains in indexes, while the VIX index remained stable at around 15.46, indicating risk appetites...

January 16th #Bitcoin Market and Data:
Although US stock indices are still in an upward trend, the market remains only cautiously optimistic due to various uncertainties in the macro narrative, limiting the scale of gains.
The biggest enemy of the risk market is not negative news, but uncertainty. Uncertainty can make the market overly cautious, leading to reduced liquidity and increased pessimism.
This week, US stocks and BTC have decoupled multiple times. The crypto market outperformed the US tech sector in the first half of the week due to structural legislation, but then tech stocks rebounded while BTC fell. After several days of decoupling, the balance between tech stocks and BTC is gradually returning, with synchronization expected to continue next week.
Returning to the BTC chart:
In the short term, pay attention to the support around the daily MA7 at 94,200. A break below this level would indicate a breakdown of the bullish zone on the daily chart, leading to a deeper correction.
The 1-hour MA200 near 93,000 will act as short-term buffer support. Key trend support remains at 91,300 and 89,900 on the 4-hour chart, especially the latter at 89,900, which is the most critical support for this phase.
As long as this support holds, it means the hourly uptrend is still intact, and the process can be considered a deep pullback followed by a continuation of the rebound trend. If it breaks, be alert for the rebound trend turning into a new downtrend.
For now, stay patient and verify each support level one by one. Try to wait for confirmation on the right side before making decisions. Additionally, the weekend is approaching, so it’s better to reassess next week, giving the market more time to adjust.
Let’s take a look at the market data:
Current market data aligns with the price action...

Hassett 'downplayed' the Department of Justice’s investigation into Powell in his speech tonight, calling it a simple request for information and stating that it was directed at the Federal Reserve. He believed there would be no significant issues with the investigation into Powell.
Trump then praised Hassett's speech, saying he performed well on TV and indicating that he is fit to remain in his current position.
Following the announcement, the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the new Fed Chair rose to 58% on Polymarket, with a continued upward trend, while Hassett's probability dropped to 16%.
Hassett: So I’m the clown? 🤡🤡

The recent geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led many to start paying attention to geopolitical risks, and more people have begun to worry about the threat of war to risk markets. Some are even waiting for asset prices to drop as a result of geopolitical risks.
However, this isn't the first time there has been a conflict between Israel and Iran. Do you really think you can wait for even lower prices? Will the asset price drops caused by geopolitical conflicts meet your expectations?
Let’s take a look together at how the S&P 500 and #Bitcoin performed following the conflict between Israel and Iran since 2024!
The first military conflict between the two countries in ten years occurred from April 1 to April 13, 2024.
BTC experienced a short-term decline, followed by a rebound, then fell again, with a maximum drop of 15%.
The S&P 500 saw a slight decline, followed by a rebound and another decline, with a maximum drop of 3%.
The second conflict occurred from June 13 to June 24, 2025.
BTC once again showed a short-term decline followed by a rebound, then declined again, with a maximum drop of 10%.
The S&P 500 saw a small decline, followed by a rebound, then declined again, maintaining a volatile trend with a maximum drop of 1.8%.
What conclusions can we draw from this?
Faced with the same regional geopolitical risks, risk assets will gradually become desensitized—from the largest drop during the first instance, to a smaller decline the second time, and even less sensitivity over time.
It’s important to note that both of these asset declines occurred during an upward trend. However, for BTC, which is currently in a low point following a deep decline, how much more can it fall given the third round of desensitization plus its already low position?
The approach of 'marking the boat to find the sword' should only serve as a reference and cannot be relied upon...

January 15 Financial Market Update: Returning to Normalcy, Market Rebound Underway—Back to Where We Started!
After experiencing numerous macro events this week, the financial markets have finally returned to a recovery trend. Particularly, the temporary easing of the geopolitical crisis in Iran and the Middle East has provided some relief to the markets. Currently, the overall market is in a recovery phase.
1. Gold prices declined, the US Dollar Index rose, and international crude oil prices fell, mainly due to the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, which slightly reduced risk aversion sentiment.
2. The bond market weakened overall, with yields rising. The reduction in risk aversion pressured the bond market in the short term, while inflation concerns further pushed yields higher. Notably, the yield on the 10-year long-term bond increased the most.
3. In the risk markets, US stock indices opened higher, driven by gains in tech stocks. The VIX index effectively dropped to 15.38, signaling lower volatility risk and reflecting an optimistic shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the SPHB/SPHQ ratio remained around 1.59, indicating that the US stock market remains in a risk-on, optimistic zone.
The temporary easing of tensions brought about by short-term geopolitical developments still warrants caution. The current easing of Iran’s situation is mainly due to verbal de-escalation between Iran and the US, reducing the pressure for direct military conflict.
However, the US aircraft carrier heading to the Middle East may not be intended for an offensive move but rather to help Israel strengthen its defense. Once the carrier arrives, the pressure on Iran may continue. Iran's domestic situation remains unresolved, and if internal unrest cannot be controlled, Iran might resort to drastic measures, potentially launching a direct attack on Israel.
To resolve the military conflicts in the Middle East, either Israel and the US must stop exerting pressure, or Iran must...

January 15th #Bitcoin Market Overview and Data:
The macro side is currently in a recovery phase, with good risk appetite in the US stock market and rising tech stocks. Currently, investors' risk preference is optimistic, favoring high-beta assets.
On the other hand, #BTC has started to correct independently, no longer following the US stock market. The biggest difference this week lies in the progress of crypto regulatory framework legislation. Clearly, what the community has been saying recently is correct: the legislative push for crypto structural reform is indeed a factor driving BTC’s independent performance this week.
Now that the core Clarity Act has been postponed for review, it has led to a lack of upward momentum for BTC, resulting in a correction trend. Meanwhile, the US stock market is rising, especially tech stocks. I believe this is the stage where tech stocks and BTC are rebalancing this week — one took an early lead, while the other lagged behind. When the exclusive bullish catalysts for crypto disappear, the two markets will need to rebalance their gap from this week.
Back to the chart: The main theme is looking at a pullback.
The current price is in the third key range, and only stayed in the second range for 10 days of consolidation, which I think is far from enough. Going forward, we should pay attention to whether the price can hold around $94,800. If it doesn't hold, it may retreat back to the second range for further consolidation.
I am relatively optimistic about this pullback. Let’s see where the price effectively stabilizes in the second range to complete the pullback and turn into a consolidating pattern. This pullback is a good buying opportunity, and if missed, I think it might be difficult to find another such opportunity for some time.
For today and tomorrow, let's first see if $94,800 can hold up. Wait patiently for the pullback. If it can hold, it means a short-term correction, lasting just a few days...

January 15th Macro Mainline:
Today’s main plot is in a vacuum period; the market needs time to digest this week’s major macro events, including the Powell event, Iran geopolitical tensions, December inflation data, and November retail/PPI figures.
The news exclusive to the crypto market is the delay in structural legislation for cryptocurrencies. The core bill, known as the 'Clarity Bill,' has been postponed due to Coinbase CEO's refusal to support it. Although the comprehensive package of crypto structural legislation originally scheduled for January 21st and January 27th has not yet been delayed, it is expected that the overall legislative process will likely be pushed back if the core bill cannot make progress.
The marginal macro event is Japan’s preparation to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23rd and hold a general election in early February. This move by Sanae Takaichi aims to capitalize on her current approval ratings to secure a stronger position in the House to push forward policies such as fiscal expansion, military build-up, and constitutional reform. Currently, the opposition party Komeito has officially aligned with the Constitutional Democratic Party to block Takaichi's continued policy advancement in the upcoming election.
The only remaining major macro event this week is the U.S. Supreme Court's announcement day on Friday, with the market awaiting the final ruling on the Trump tariff case.
Last week’s announcement was delayed once, and this Wednesday’s second announcement was also missed. Now all eyes are on Friday. In fact, from now until June 2026, it is the U.S. Supreme Court’s announcement period, with two opportunities for rulings each week.
According to procedure, the U.S. Supreme Court does not announce specific timing for individual rulings, so we can only patiently wait on each announcement day. For this week, announcements are scheduled for Wednesday and Friday at 23:00...

To continue the topic of AI, honestly speaking from personal experience, the emergence of AI has accelerated my learning ability and the speed at which I absorb knowledge. Of course, it has also improved my ability to discern the truthfulness of various types of information.
AI is a great tool for learning. If the emergence of AI still doesn't allow you to learn anything, then it's really time to reflect.
Many people like to use AI to solve current problems, but if you want to learn, the most important thing is to let AI help you apply knowledge broadly and extend your learning into more content.
If you only understand question-and-answer interactions, this is basically the same as test-oriented education during school, with very low efficiency. Often, more knowledge emerges through broader question-and-answer exploration, and every question you ask is an opportunity to acquire knowledge.
Learn to truly utilize AI rather than simply engaging in Q&A. You should act like a 'taskmaster' and squeeze every bit of capability out of your AI; otherwise, aren't you just wasting your money? Moreover, as you ask questions, your AI continues to grow.
If your AI is still 'dumb,' it means its owner doesn’t love learning! Though harsh, this is indeed a truthful statement!