Bruce Zheng
liked and voted
Recently, market volatility has been significant, with many growth stocks experiencing extreme ups and downs. However, I believe that some stocks have started to reach a position suitable for long-term investors to gradually build their holdings. Lately, I’ve been paying close attention to TSLA and SOFI. On the surface, these two companies are in completely different sectors—one is involved in electric vehicles, AI, and robotics, while the other focuses on fintech and digital banking. But I think they share one commonality: the market is still analyzing them using traditional frameworks, while their true long-term value may already be shifting in another direction. Therefore, when I look at these two stocks now, I'm not betting on whether they will rebound tomorrow or solely focusing on short-term technical indicators. Instead, I feel that if we extend the timeline to the next two to three years, or even three to five years, the current divergence and volatility might present an ideal opportunity to slowly build positions.
Let’s start with TSLA. Many people still focus on Tesla's vehicle sales, gross margins, competition in the Chinese market, price wars, and similar issues. These factors are undoubtedly important because the automotive business remains Tesla’s core foundation—if car sales decline, cash flow and market confidence will both suffer. However, I believe that viewing Tesla purely through the lens of a traditional automaker can be overly limiting. What makes Tesla truly unique isn’t just its ability to produce electric cars; it’s that the company has already secured some of the hardest-to-obtain elements for real-world AI: real-road data, hardware terminals, a network of vehicle owners, manufacturing capabilities, energy systems, and AI training infrastructure. While many AI companies are still stuck within screens, processing text, images, videos, and office efficiency tools, Tesla is integrating AI into the real world—enabling AI to understand roads, spaces, movement, driving, energy, and mechanical actions. The complexity of this task far exceeds building a simple software application, but if successful, its commercial value would also be unprecedented.
Let’s start with TSLA. Many people still focus on Tesla's vehicle sales, gross margins, competition in the Chinese market, price wars, and similar issues. These factors are undoubtedly important because the automotive business remains Tesla’s core foundation—if car sales decline, cash flow and market confidence will both suffer. However, I believe that viewing Tesla purely through the lens of a traditional automaker can be overly limiting. What makes Tesla truly unique isn’t just its ability to produce electric cars; it’s that the company has already secured some of the hardest-to-obtain elements for real-world AI: real-road data, hardware terminals, a network of vehicle owners, manufacturing capabilities, energy systems, and AI training infrastructure. While many AI companies are still stuck within screens, processing text, images, videos, and office efficiency tools, Tesla is integrating AI into the real world—enabling AI to understand roads, spaces, movement, driving, energy, and mechanical actions. The complexity of this task far exceeds building a simple software application, but if successful, its commercial value would also be unprecedented.
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Bruce Zheng
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Friends who have recently stayed in the market should all share the same feeling: this market is not short of volatility, but what it lacks is solid confidence.
Good news doesn't necessarily lead to a rise; any hint of bad news tends to be exaggerated into a selloff. The default state of the entire market now is one of caution, where 'less is more.' This isn't just my random feeling:
According to AAII's latest sentiment survey as of February 11, bulls account for 38.5%, bears 38.1%, and neutrals are down to only 23.3%. In essence, both sides are arguing fiercely, but deep down, nobody really has much conviction. This kind of market environment is the most treacherous because prices no longer follow fundamentals—they're entirely driven by sentiment. Meanwhile, CNN's Fear & Greed Index also dropped to 36 on February 13, officially entering the fear zone, showing a notably cold market sentiment.
Here, I want to share with you the most honest thought from the bottom of my heart:
The vast majority of opportunities that can make you big money don’t come from companies suddenly becoming amazing, but rather from the market getting spooked and jacking up the discount rate to astronomical levels.
Once fear sets in, risk premiums soar accordingly, and the market will use an absurdly harsh set of standards to price future cash flows of companies—even if nothing about the company itself has worsened, its stock price will still get hammered first.
Think about it, what exactly do we mean by 'wrongfully beaten down'? It's not about giving you a dirt-cheap price to pick up bargains—it's when the market goes crazy and uses one quarter’s worth of issues to brutally...
Good news doesn't necessarily lead to a rise; any hint of bad news tends to be exaggerated into a selloff. The default state of the entire market now is one of caution, where 'less is more.' This isn't just my random feeling:
According to AAII's latest sentiment survey as of February 11, bulls account for 38.5%, bears 38.1%, and neutrals are down to only 23.3%. In essence, both sides are arguing fiercely, but deep down, nobody really has much conviction. This kind of market environment is the most treacherous because prices no longer follow fundamentals—they're entirely driven by sentiment. Meanwhile, CNN's Fear & Greed Index also dropped to 36 on February 13, officially entering the fear zone, showing a notably cold market sentiment.
Here, I want to share with you the most honest thought from the bottom of my heart:
The vast majority of opportunities that can make you big money don’t come from companies suddenly becoming amazing, but rather from the market getting spooked and jacking up the discount rate to astronomical levels.
Once fear sets in, risk premiums soar accordingly, and the market will use an absurdly harsh set of standards to price future cash flows of companies—even if nothing about the company itself has worsened, its stock price will still get hammered first.
Think about it, what exactly do we mean by 'wrongfully beaten down'? It's not about giving you a dirt-cheap price to pick up bargains—it's when the market goes crazy and uses one quarter’s worth of issues to brutally...
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Bruce Zheng
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[Overall Viewpoint] It's the exciting earnings season. I don't gamble on who will beat estimates based on 'online consensus.' I only bet on one thing: whether the market is willing to pay a higher valuation for 'certainty in the next quarter.' Right now, what’s most sensitive isn’t the EPS line on the income statement but management’s outlook for 2026 (how revenue grows, how costs are controlled, how Capex is spent, how cash flow returns). If these four things aren’t clear, even beautiful numbers can still lead to a drop; conversely, if the numbers aren’t explosive but 'predictability is stronger,' it might be easier for the stock to rise.
[Biggest Noise Source This Week] You have to admit: On the same day, there’s both the FOMC meeting and post-market earnings reports from tech giants, and the movements after earnings are often subject to macro 're-pricing.' This Fed meeting is on January 27–28, with the policy statement released at 2:00 PM ET on January 28, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This will first affect interest rate expectations and long-term yields, which then influence the discount rates and risk appetite of high-valuation stocks.
[Earnings Schedule] Key companies’ schedules are highly concentrated this week: Microsoft releases after-market on January 28, conference call at 2:30 PM PT; Meta releases after-market on January 28, conference call at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET; Tesla releases after-market on January 28, Q&A at 5:30 PM ET; Apple’s conference call is at 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET on January 29; ...
[Biggest Noise Source This Week] You have to admit: On the same day, there’s both the FOMC meeting and post-market earnings reports from tech giants, and the movements after earnings are often subject to macro 're-pricing.' This Fed meeting is on January 27–28, with the policy statement released at 2:00 PM ET on January 28, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This will first affect interest rate expectations and long-term yields, which then influence the discount rates and risk appetite of high-valuation stocks.
[Earnings Schedule] Key companies’ schedules are highly concentrated this week: Microsoft releases after-market on January 28, conference call at 2:30 PM PT; Meta releases after-market on January 28, conference call at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET; Tesla releases after-market on January 28, Q&A at 5:30 PM ET; Apple’s conference call is at 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET on January 29; ...
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Bruce Zheng
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Predict TSLA’s opening price at the US market open — Jan 30, 1:30am AEDT (Sydney).
Voting closes on Jan 29 at 10:00pm AEDT (Sydney)
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$’s FY2025 Q4 earnings are scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 28, 2026 (U.S.) after market close, which means Thursday morning in Australia (AEDT). (Rough guide: 4:00pm ET ≈ 8:00am AEDT / 7:00am AEST.)
Core Focus: What Is the Market Watching?
Tesla Q4: th...
Voting closes on Jan 29 at 10:00pm AEDT (Sydney)
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$’s FY2025 Q4 earnings are scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 28, 2026 (U.S.) after market close, which means Thursday morning in Australia (AEDT). (Rough guide: 4:00pm ET ≈ 8:00am AEDT / 7:00am AEST.)
Tesla Q4: th...
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Market direction:This week, driven by the Christmas factor, market holidays and the Christmas rally have overlapped. The current index level has reached a previous key resistance level. Although the BP500 has completed its breakout, the Dow and Nasdaq have not yet achieved the same. Notably, even after excluding the holiday effect, there has been some contraction in trading volume. Therefore, tonight’s market performance is extremely crucial. We need to observe whether the three major indexes can collectively break through with increased volume and stabilize above the resistance line before confirming a clear Christmas rally.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Going forward, attention should be paid to whether SpaceX and Tesla can drive commercial spaceflight into becoming a new minor theme.Whether commercial spaceflight can reignite enthusiasm for US stock robotics speculation, having an additional tech-driven narrative would help alleviate valuation concerns for AI companies while ensuring capital rotation within the technology sector, maintaining healthy speculative activity.
Key event analysis this week:
Wall Street Journal report: Trump's shift towards national capitalism, collusion between boards and the presidency
(Potentially bearish for US stocks)
Some companies have found ways to increase government influence on corporate boards. Strengthened government intervention, Trump plans to acquire more shares of publicly traded companies (e.g., Trump wants 10% of AMD), and collect portions of profits from certain listed firms. The Trump administration is aggressively expanding individual and governmental power. Why is this bearish for US stocks? Because corporate power is shifting from shareholders to the board. (This may suppress US stocks)...
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Going forward, attention should be paid to whether SpaceX and Tesla can drive commercial spaceflight into becoming a new minor theme.Whether commercial spaceflight can reignite enthusiasm for US stock robotics speculation, having an additional tech-driven narrative would help alleviate valuation concerns for AI companies while ensuring capital rotation within the technology sector, maintaining healthy speculative activity.
Key event analysis this week:
Wall Street Journal report: Trump's shift towards national capitalism, collusion between boards and the presidency
(Potentially bearish for US stocks)
Some companies have found ways to increase government influence on corporate boards. Strengthened government intervention, Trump plans to acquire more shares of publicly traded companies (e.g., Trump wants 10% of AMD), and collect portions of profits from certain listed firms. The Trump administration is aggressively expanding individual and governmental power. Why is this bearish for US stocks? Because corporate power is shifting from shareholders to the board. (This may suppress US stocks)...
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Bruce Zheng
liked and commented on
Really appreciate all the support these days!
I’ll continue posting my analysis on Moomoo — whether it’s options flow, NVDA position sizing, or short-term setups. If you find it helpful, you’re welcome to follow along. Looking forward to growing together in 2026!
Did you get in at 170? I will thoroughly explain the rationale behind NVIDIA's (NVDA) position sizing.
I’ll continue posting my analysis on Moomoo — whether it’s options flow, NVDA position sizing, or short-term setups. If you find it helpful, you’re welcome to follow along. Looking forward to growing together in 2026!
Did you get in at 170? I will thoroughly explain the rationale behind NVIDIA's (NVDA) position sizing.
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Bruce Zheng
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At the beginning of this article, let me provide an update on NVIDIA's current price.It is currently around 189.Compared to the last time I wrote about it, the price has risen further. In the comments section, I would like to ask the usual question: Did you follow through with your planned trade, or are you still waiting? Many people aren’t incapable of analysis; rather, when the price actually reaches the range they predicted, their hands hesitate, and their confidence wavers. The most challenging aspect of trading lies in this very moment.
Now, let’s turn our attention to Microsoft.MSFT is currently around 486.85.Here, I’ll just ask one question for clarity and alignment at the execution level: regarding what was written earlier,For the trade between 470 and 476, did you open the position as planned?(The original text can be found here: My first position will be placed in the range of 470 to 476, securing a spot without chasing higher prices.) If not, this current uptrend is not profit for you but pressure, because you'll start thinking about chasing the market. Chasing risks buying at a high point, while waiting risks missing out. The purpose of charts is not prediction but to rein in human nature.
First, explain clearly from the first principles what the market is actually buying in Microsoft.
Microsoft is often perceived as a commoditized entity—whether it’s AI narratives or Copilot updates, which seem like commentary tailored to trending topics. However, if we strip away the buzzwords and examine the company from first principles, Microsoft’s business logic is rather unexciting but remarkably stable. What enterprises are willing to pay for in the long term isn’t novelty—it’s convenience, reliability, and accountability when issues arise. Among large corporations...
Now, let’s turn our attention to Microsoft.MSFT is currently around 486.85.Here, I’ll just ask one question for clarity and alignment at the execution level: regarding what was written earlier,For the trade between 470 and 476, did you open the position as planned?(The original text can be found here: My first position will be placed in the range of 470 to 476, securing a spot without chasing higher prices.) If not, this current uptrend is not profit for you but pressure, because you'll start thinking about chasing the market. Chasing risks buying at a high point, while waiting risks missing out. The purpose of charts is not prediction but to rein in human nature.
First, explain clearly from the first principles what the market is actually buying in Microsoft.
Microsoft is often perceived as a commoditized entity—whether it’s AI narratives or Copilot updates, which seem like commentary tailored to trending topics. However, if we strip away the buzzwords and examine the company from first principles, Microsoft’s business logic is rather unexciting but remarkably stable. What enterprises are willing to pay for in the long term isn’t novelty—it’s convenience, reliability, and accountability when issues arise. Among large corporations...
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Bruce Zheng
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In my previous article, I clearly outlined the 'initial entry point' as being around 170, and indeed, the price was hovering near that level at the time. (Article link and original sentence: NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently in an aggressive positioning phase. It is undeniably strong, but also highly volatile. I will strictly adhere to a phased approach, avoiding the temptation to go all-in at once. The first tranche will be between 168 and 171.Here, let ...
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Bruce Zheng
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This article first clarifies its positioning: it is not an in-depth analysis of each of the six stocks but rather a preview, or a 'master map.' I want to thoroughly explain why I am focusing on these six stocks, how I plan to enter the market, how I will phase my purchases, and how I will take profits. Following this, I will write individual analyses for each stock, focusing on one company at a time. Each article will cover key points from financial reports, core metrics, potential catalysts, risk factors, and how I intend to respond, ensuring actionable insights.
To put it bluntly, my recent stock selection criteria are very pragmatic and realistic. I no longer want to confuse myself with buzzwords; instead, I care more about whether a company has stable revenue-generating capabilities. Ideally, the more indispensable the service becomes to users, the more reasonably it can charge them. In an environment where interest rates are not low, the market shows more patience toward companies that can embed growth into cash flow and becomes stricter on purely sentiment-driven narratives. You will notice that Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Visa (V), Eli Lilly and Co (LLY), and Costco (COST) may appear to represent six different sectors on the surface, but fundamentally, they all operate as 'revenue systems.' In my view, the stocks I have selected are those capable of generating long-term income.
Below, I will directly present my trading plan. You can consider it an executable template, but there’s no need to rigidly adhere to it. First, I want to clarify that the significance of price levels is not to predict the future but to help you avoid two things: first, chasing highs driven by emotional peaks; second, being unsure whether to add positions after a decline, which could result in being unable to hold the position while feeling uneasy. My habit is to establish three elements for each stock: the entry point for the initial position, how to scale into additional purchases, and how to take profits incrementally. There’s also a hidden rule: if the fundamental logic starts deteriorating after a drop to a certain level, it’s not a signal to add more but to stop—or even retreat.
To put it bluntly, my recent stock selection criteria are very pragmatic and realistic. I no longer want to confuse myself with buzzwords; instead, I care more about whether a company has stable revenue-generating capabilities. Ideally, the more indispensable the service becomes to users, the more reasonably it can charge them. In an environment where interest rates are not low, the market shows more patience toward companies that can embed growth into cash flow and becomes stricter on purely sentiment-driven narratives. You will notice that Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Visa (V), Eli Lilly and Co (LLY), and Costco (COST) may appear to represent six different sectors on the surface, but fundamentally, they all operate as 'revenue systems.' In my view, the stocks I have selected are those capable of generating long-term income.
Below, I will directly present my trading plan. You can consider it an executable template, but there’s no need to rigidly adhere to it. First, I want to clarify that the significance of price levels is not to predict the future but to help you avoid two things: first, chasing highs driven by emotional peaks; second, being unsure whether to add positions after a decline, which could result in being unable to hold the position while feeling uneasy. My habit is to establish three elements for each stock: the entry point for the initial position, how to scale into additional purchases, and how to take profits incrementally. There’s also a hidden rule: if the fundamental logic starts deteriorating after a drop to a certain level, it’s not a signal to add more but to stop—or even retreat.
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Bruce Zheng
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Market performance this week (volume-price relationship):
This week, the US stock market was influenced by the macro event of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, compounded by the fact that the major indices are approaching their previous highs (more evident in the BP500). Therefore, during this critical window period, market investors are indecisive. The bulls fear reaching technical resistance levels, while the bears worry about missing out if the Federal Reserve releases positive news. Thus, there is significant psychological divergence between the bulls and bears, but it is not reflected in market behavior or trading volumes.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
Macroeconomic event analysis:
The United States allows NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China.
Since the end of September, China has prohibited the import of NVIDIA chips at the customs level and has held discussions with companies such as Alibaba. Therefore, 'being allowed to sell' does not equate to 'actual procurement.' Additionally, NVIDIA’s current chip orders are already scheduled until 2029. Hence, while this news can boost the valuations of NVIDIA and its supply chain companies in the stock market, it has limited impact on substantial profit growth.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but only one rate cut is projected for 2026.
Market sentiment has improved following the rate cut. Although markets are closely watching the projected interest rate path for 2026, there are two considerations: first, the current trajectory is based on optimistic economic assumptions, but the U.S. government shutdown has delayed data releases; second, the U.S. government still believes in the narrative of AI and its ability to deliver on valuation expectations. Therefore, if the economy weakens, this path may be adjusted.And the 2025 Fed Chair transition is a key variable: if Trump-backed candidate Hassett takes office...
This week, the US stock market was influenced by the macro event of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, compounded by the fact that the major indices are approaching their previous highs (more evident in the BP500). Therefore, during this critical window period, market investors are indecisive. The bulls fear reaching technical resistance levels, while the bears worry about missing out if the Federal Reserve releases positive news. Thus, there is significant psychological divergence between the bulls and bears, but it is not reflected in market behavior or trading volumes.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
Macroeconomic event analysis:
The United States allows NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China.
Since the end of September, China has prohibited the import of NVIDIA chips at the customs level and has held discussions with companies such as Alibaba. Therefore, 'being allowed to sell' does not equate to 'actual procurement.' Additionally, NVIDIA’s current chip orders are already scheduled until 2029. Hence, while this news can boost the valuations of NVIDIA and its supply chain companies in the stock market, it has limited impact on substantial profit growth.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but only one rate cut is projected for 2026.
Market sentiment has improved following the rate cut. Although markets are closely watching the projected interest rate path for 2026, there are two considerations: first, the current trajectory is based on optimistic economic assumptions, but the U.S. government shutdown has delayed data releases; second, the U.S. government still believes in the narrative of AI and its ability to deliver on valuation expectations. Therefore, if the economy weakens, this path may be adjusted.And the 2025 Fed Chair transition is a key variable: if Trump-backed candidate Hassett takes office...
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