It feels uncomfortable to write about markets when missiles are flying. People are dying, families are terrified, and here we are talking about volatility and positioning. But markets don’t pause for morality.
Capital reprices risk in real time, whether we’re comfortable discussing it or not.
There’s a pattern most people misunderstand: markets often don’t bottom when wars start - they bottom before. The real damage usually happens in the weeks leading up to conflict, when uncertainty is at it...