(Kuala Lumpur, 12th) MAA Group Investment Bank Research believes that the recent rise in the plantation sector index has clearly deviated from fundamentals. With palm oil prices moving sideways and sluggish exports, the industry may face short-term correction pressures.
In its latest report, MAA Group Investment Bank Research noted that Malaysian plantation stocks have continued to strengthen since June, with the Kuala Lumpur Plantation Index rising approximately 13.7%, significantly outperforming the 3% gain of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI.
“The initial phase of this rally was supported by strong second-quarter earnings results, consistent with crude palm oil prices stabilizing at MYR 4,056 per tonne. However, we believe the recent upward momentum is increasingly driven by sentiment rather than fundamental performance.”
Analysts warned that as palm oil prices stabilize (between MYR 4,000 and MYR 4,200 per tonne) and export slowdowns persist until year-end, the sector’s rally appears overheated and may face profit-taking pressures in the short term.
Overvalued
The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the plantation sector has climbed to 17.6 times, which is one standard deviation higher than its three-year average of 14.4 times, reflecting a premium of approximately 22.2%.
Analysts believe that the recent overperformance is primarily driven by thematic speculation around ESG-related topics and land value revaluation, rather than earnings prospects supported by crude palm oil prices.
The market's optimistic expectations regarding the unlocking of land value and renewable energy businesses have pushed up valuations, but fundamentals have yet to fully catch up, especially for the renewable energy sub-sector, where significant earnings contributions are not expected until 2027.
The report emphasized that since July, the movement of plantation stocks has begun to diverge from crude palm oil prices...