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AW Private ID: 71586273
开着超跑,越洋捕捞!
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    The resumption of government operations, coupled with the concentrated release of delayed macroeconomic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI for September and October, has rapidly shifted market focus from 'shutdown panic' to 'data anxiety.' These figures will directly determine the room for interest rate cuts within the year. Hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials have reduced the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December from 69% last week to 52%, leading to a repricing of expectations due to policy divergence. Risk assets based on rate-cut trading have experienced significant volatility, and the cryptocurrency market was no exception, with BTC falling below the 100,000 mark amid extreme pessimism — as long as rate-cut expectations do not recover, cryptocurrency assets are unlikely to achieve meaningful breakthroughs. The core trigger for the catastrophic sell-off in AI stocks was a report about Alibaba's upgrade of Qwen. Alibaba is building a one-stop intelligent assistant, fully benchmarking the GPT model while accelerating global expansion, with an open-source and free strategy targeting overseas markets. This caused the already fragile US AI sector to experience a 'cardiac arrest,' with the VIX index surging above 20 instantly. The market quickly drew parallels: the AI race is no longer dominated solely by the US; its narrative moat has been challenged, and Wall Street’s concerns about the valuation bubble in US AI stocks have intensified sharply. Enormous AI investments by US tech giants have led to strained capital, mounting debt, and compounded by electricity shortages (AI data center power consumption may double by 2027). The Trump administration plans to allocate tens of billions of dollars in national funds through the DOE's LPO office to fully support the construction of new nuclear power plants. If China’s AI sector catches up rapidly via an open-source and free model, the high investment in the US could face a 'bottomless money pit' risk — capital seeks profits, and once returns diminish, investors will inevitably exit. Ahead of NVDA’s earnings report, heightened sensitivity and uncertainty, compounded by aggressive short selling, triggered quant fund-driven panic selling, amplifying losses further. However, there is no need for excessive panic. The government's resumption not only brings the market back under macroeconomic influence but also signals that fiscal liquidity is about to flow in. The next two rounds of fiscal injections will create a flood of liquidity, with stimulus efforts set to intensify to safeguard midterm elections. Liquidity pressures will reverse quickly, and year-end market performance is likely to follow a pattern of initial suppression followed by recovery.
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    $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ Go back under 20 and I’ll keep my longs in peace
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    $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ The market is up, but you're down. I've known you for two years, and you're still so timid.
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    $Ondas Holdings (ONDS.US)$ Hopefully, it can break through 7.5 after I wake up!!
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    $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Collapse, garbage America.
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    $Luminar Technologies (LAZR.US)$
    Luminar appoints new CFO; Forbearance agreements in place while company evaluates capital structure and liquidity solutions
    Q3 revenue up ~20% YoY and QoQ; Off-road, defense, and photonics opportunities continue to advance
    ORLANDO, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Luminar (NASDAQ: LAZR), a leading global automotive technology company, provided its quarterly business update and financial results for the third quarter of 2025. These results and related commenta...
    $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ It is hard to imagine how much further this index could fall if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates next month, potentially dropping to levels not seen in half a year.
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    $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Is Tom Lee still holding up? I can barely hold on…
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