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Today's market action, despite a modest spike in Eminis after the big retail sales miss and the even more unexpected jump in yields despite the latest confirmation the US economy is slowing down rapidly, generally makes sense at least in the context of the absolutely bizarre market action in recent weeks: Chinese Equities are struggling to digest the ugly weekend data misses coupled with the latest now-daily crackdown and warning from SEC head Gensler, while in the US, stocks are drifting on fresh lockdown fears and fears the best is far behind us in an economy where retail sales have missed for the past three months while the Citi Global Economic Surprise Index is lunging back towards “zero” after 14 consecutive months of “upside surprises” from the economic recovery.
Options Dealers are choking on prolific long ATM Gamma into Op-Ex which simply means that selloffs would be bought and ripped back - crushing the daily distribution of outcomes into a narrow band for effectively an entire month now and smashing realized volatility.This goes part-and-parcel with enormous Vol Control universe buying as we told you expect Thursday, adding prolific amounts exposure off the back of the absolute collapse in trailing realized volatility; (which was last seen in Sep and Oct of 2017) which means a melt up would happen.
Currently, markets are absolutely stuck and pinning btwn the large ATM $Gamma strike...