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Bulls and bears are battling it out today!! What do you think?
Who will win? $ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
Who will win? $ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
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$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
This note is for personal study purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
This note will analyze the current price dynamics of SOXL.
1. Market Maker Activity
P.S.: Chart data has been rounded for simplicity.
Current gamma exposure is significantly negative (-3.2M), with the gamma flip point far out at 231. Put options dominate the current exposure, indicating subdued market sentiment and pronounced risk-averse behavior. Market makers are forced into momentum-driven hedging—buying on declines and selling on rallies—which amplifies volatility. The equivalent share count of in-the-money (ITM) puts is six times that of calls. The ITM put coverage amounts to 2.4% of average daily trading volume, a level that can meaningfully influence the stock price (generally, levels above 1% have observable impact, and above 5% have significant impact). A put wall exists at 200, where gamma changes sharply and market maker hedging activity is most intense; we indeed observed a rapid price drop at this level, confirming the reliability of the put wall.
The current share price has broken below the 200 put wall, which will act as a weak resistance level (as put holders may exercise their options to sell shares at expiration).
2. Institutional Activity:
Essentially completedAccumulation phase; estimated upper limit of accumulation is USD 150 million
Its historical accumulation behavior: In the chart, both AC and RAC indicate accumulation and re-accumulation, while DB represents distribution. Due to charting inaccuracies and systematic errors in estimation methods, the final result only roughly identifies the accumulation...
This note is for personal study purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
This note will analyze the current price dynamics of SOXL.
1. Market Maker Activity
P.S.: Chart data has been rounded for simplicity.
Current gamma exposure is significantly negative (-3.2M), with the gamma flip point far out at 231. Put options dominate the current exposure, indicating subdued market sentiment and pronounced risk-averse behavior. Market makers are forced into momentum-driven hedging—buying on declines and selling on rallies—which amplifies volatility. The equivalent share count of in-the-money (ITM) puts is six times that of calls. The ITM put coverage amounts to 2.4% of average daily trading volume, a level that can meaningfully influence the stock price (generally, levels above 1% have observable impact, and above 5% have significant impact). A put wall exists at 200, where gamma changes sharply and market maker hedging activity is most intense; we indeed observed a rapid price drop at this level, confirming the reliability of the put wall.
The current share price has broken below the 200 put wall, which will act as a weak resistance level (as put holders may exercise their options to sell shares at expiration).
2. Institutional Activity:
Essentially completedAccumulation phase; estimated upper limit of accumulation is USD 150 million
Its historical accumulation behavior: In the chart, both AC and RAC indicate accumulation and re-accumulation, while DB represents distribution. Due to charting inaccuracies and systematic errors in estimation methods, the final result only roughly identifies the accumulation...
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76227381
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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up or down today ?
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76227381
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The May nonfarm payrolls report sent a clear signal: the U.S. economy remains resilient and is not easily bearish.
Despite multiple headwinds—including high interest rates, tariff-related disruptions, energy price shocks, and a slowdown in white-collar hiring—the labor market has remained remarkably resilient.
May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations. More importantly, April’s figure was substantially revised upward from the previously reported 115,000 to 179,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, showing no further deterioration.
Job gains were primarily driven by leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and local government sectors.
On the surface, job growth remains solid; digging deeper, this report warrants more attention than recent months because employment momentum is no longer solely reliant on healthcare—some cyclical sectors are also showing signs of recovery.
Of course, one-off factors are also at play.
Leisure and hospitality saw a notable rebound in May, likely tied to temporary hiring related to the World Cup. With multiple matches hosted in the U.S., demand for food, beverages, and accommodation services surged ahead of schedule, driving job creation. Even excluding leisure and hospitality, May still added over 100,000 jobs. Given that the threshold needed to maintain labor market stability has fallen considerably, this outcome is far from weak.
Therefore, the key takeaway from this nonfarm payroll report is not that 'the jobs market exploded,' but rather:
The U.S. labor market still shows no clear signs of cracking.
At the same time, structural divergence continues.
AI investment continues to support nonresidential construction and durable goods through data center development...
Despite multiple headwinds—including high interest rates, tariff-related disruptions, energy price shocks, and a slowdown in white-collar hiring—the labor market has remained remarkably resilient.
May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations. More importantly, April’s figure was substantially revised upward from the previously reported 115,000 to 179,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, showing no further deterioration.
Job gains were primarily driven by leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and local government sectors.
On the surface, job growth remains solid; digging deeper, this report warrants more attention than recent months because employment momentum is no longer solely reliant on healthcare—some cyclical sectors are also showing signs of recovery.
Of course, one-off factors are also at play.
Leisure and hospitality saw a notable rebound in May, likely tied to temporary hiring related to the World Cup. With multiple matches hosted in the U.S., demand for food, beverages, and accommodation services surged ahead of schedule, driving job creation. Even excluding leisure and hospitality, May still added over 100,000 jobs. Given that the threshold needed to maintain labor market stability has fallen considerably, this outcome is far from weak.
Therefore, the key takeaway from this nonfarm payroll report is not that 'the jobs market exploded,' but rather:
The U.S. labor market still shows no clear signs of cracking.
At the same time, structural divergence continues.
AI investment continues to support nonresidential construction and durable goods through data center development...
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