• 75968743 : Do you understand what a signed order means? If OpenAI and Anthropic go bankrupt, will the hundreds of billions of dollars in orders on Amazon and Microsoft's books be reduced to zero? Their current capital expenditures are intended to meet future contracts. If their clients collapse, depreciation will consume several years of their net profits.
  Don’t say that OpenAI and Anthropic cannot possibly collapse. From what I know, they are still losing money every single day, and the more customers they have, the greater the losses become. If it weren't for the fear that their collapse could trigger systemic risks, why would NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon invest in their clients, essentially transferring assets from one hand to the other?
  The decline in their stock prices is due to market fears over systemic risks. Therefore, the higher their current capital expenditure plans are, the greater their risks become.

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• 75968743 Cnorm OP : Distributing one's own clients among 50 unprofitable startups is not true diversification. Even if we assume that all these new startups survive and become profitable, the cloud service provider business run by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon is not a particularly good business.
  Previously, they were internet companies with elegant business models, generating substantial free cash flow annually. Now, they increasingly resemble heavy-asset industrial companies, competing against each other in the same field. They must allocate massive amounts from their profits each year to replace and maintain data centers. This is what Buffett referred to as 'they have to run as fast as they can just to stay in place, otherwise they will fall behind their competitors.' If any company slightly slows down its GPU upgrade pace, its customers will tend to switch suppliers, resulting in a loss of market share. These 'profits' appear on financial statements, but as shareholders, you cannot enjoy them—they are textbook 'paper profits'.
  The market applies different PE multiples for light-asset companies versus heavy-asset companies. This is why companies that generally do not require significant capital investment once their business model is established often enjoy higher PE ratios, because such businesses are considered 'better'.

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• 75968743 Cnorm OP : The US only has a few freight railway lines, which have created a de facto monopoly. In their interviews or books, they both define the insurance business under the company as Berkshire's most important operation because it generates substantial float every year that can be used for stock buybacks or investments to enhance the company’s intrinsic value.
  Based on Buffett’s investment theory of selecting companies, his favorite phrase is whether a company has a moat. Cloud services are neither monopolistic nor possess a de facto moat; what Google Cloud can do, AWS can provide, and Microsoft can provide as well. If you watch their interviews, they will express regret over not investing in Google long ago, precisely because Google essentially monopolizes search and advertising businesses, and it doesn’t require massive capital expenditures annually—just writing some code and maintaining servers can bring in excess profits. It’s not that these companies are bad—their core businesses are excellent—but there are clearly companies with more elegant business models available in the market, so there’s no need to invest in a company caught in an arms race.

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• 75968743 Cnorm OP : Coca-Cola enjoys what Buffett calls 'mind share,' and Apple is no different. Visa and MasterCard have a duopoly with incredibly high capital returns. It's not that cloud services can't be invested in, but if these three companies could form a tri-opoly, then of course it would be a good opportunity. However, their business model seems less attractive compared to Visa or MasterCard, and given the current market volatility, if confidence in this sector declines further, leading to lower prices, it wouldn’t be too late to invest then.
  These are all great companies, but I just don’t think now is the right time. If OpenAI goes bankrupt (which might happen soon at this rate) and triggers a market sell-off, that would be the perfect time to pick up these three companies at a discount for potentially better returns.

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• 75968743 Cnorm OP : I'm not in a rush to invest in them because I can continue holding the stocks I've already purchased, like GE and Mastercard. I don't have to force myself to buy tech companies just because they might offer good returns in the future.
  They are decent companies, but they haven't reached what I consider an attractive price. During the dot-com bubble, Microsoft lost half of its market value. If that happens again this time, I can always buy in later. If it doesn’t happen, then there’s no need for me to pick some tech companies to buy right now. After all, I'm not a fund manager with clients pressuring me.
  In my view, even after the recent adjustments, their prices are only about fair. Of course, opinions on how to assess a company's value vary from person to person. In my opinion, OpenAI will quickly run out of funds and collapse, which will inevitably trigger panic in the market over AI monetization capabilities. Judging by recent market reactions, they are already very sensitive to such events. That would be the best time to buy them. You could say I’m planning to be greedier. Even if I'm wrong, the other companies I hold, which I see as more stable, will still continue to deliver value. So ultimately, I won't lose anything.
  The behavior of rushing to buy a company’s stock out of fear of missing out seems risky to me, and I simply dislike risk.

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• 75968743 : Using SpaceX, which is making money, to save xAI, which is on the verge of collapse, is like mixing chocolate with excrement — in the end, you're still left with excrement.

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• 75968743 Northsea9 : Moving too quickly can lead to setbacks. Even the ancient Greeks knew to keep an eye on the ground while gazing at the sky. Propping up a company’s stock price with unrealistic promises, when its revenue and profits are dwindling and it’s on the verge of collapse, will only result in an inevitable crash.

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• 75968743 OP YSL2024 : Check out the news; they will spin off the mobile (auto-related) division into a standalone subsidiary named Mobility Global. In the future, S&P Global will focus solely on debt rating services.

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• 75968743 OP YSL2024 : On the contrary, I believe his intrinsic value has increased because the profit margin of his rating business is higher than that of the automobile business. Moreover, you will receive stocks of the new company as compensation. Coupled with today's discounted stock price, it presents an opportunity to increase your position. This is the best news today. I have just sold part of my Johnson & Johnson shares and added them to this stock.

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• 75968743 OP YSL2024 : He still needs to go through regulatory review and final board approval, so there's no rush.

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• 75968743 : The market sometimes goes crazy for no apparent reason. As long as there's no news affecting the company’s fundamentals, you can confidently buy. If stocks are at a discount, it's a good time to add to your position.

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• 75968743 无限生长的韭菜 : It is NVIDIA's largest customer. If OpenAI goes bankrupt, it will prove that 'AI lacks monetization capability,' and this will impact all companies in the entire supply chain. The first to be affected would be NVIDIA, which claims 'buy my shovel and you're guaranteed to strike gold.'

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• 75968743 Watermelon Bull : You probably haven't fully grasped the extent of the connections between these companies. OpenAI is also Microsoft's largest customer. If OpenAI were to collapse, Microsoft would lose its biggest cloud services client. Would Microsoft still buy new NVIDIA GPUs to rent out to clients if there are no clients left? Who would they rent to? The same logic applies to Amazon. Anthropics' business model is similar to OpenAI’s—can it survive if OpenAI fails? OpenAI is the first domino in the chain; once it falls, everyone involved in AI tech stocks will be impacted.

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• 75968743 无限生长的韭菜 : I don't forecast short-term stock prices; I only see increasing risks on the horizon. My plan is to wait until all the potential problems have surfaced, then use the increased value of my other stocks to buy the remaining winners.

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• 75968743 Watermelon Bull : If OpenAI, the most well-known, largest, best-funded, and arguably the strongest technology startup in the AI industry, cannot survive, who would invest in smaller companies with even less favorable conditions? The entire market would panic, leading to a sell-off of stocks of all companies even remotely associated with AI.

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• 75968743 : NVIDIA has fallen into a situation where its largest customer is on the verge of not being able to afford NVIDIA products if they don't invest. This is a classic signal of a bubble burst. Now, whether or not to invest has become hard to justify.

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